How to Short a Bull market - Next week set up Bull Vs Bear WTI
So we have been Bearish since the last few days of December and coming into the first week of Jan (Tuesday 3rd to be precise) based on 4HR recoveries of Red Vector (manipulation candles) candles by Green Vector candles at 77.3,78.5-8,80-80.4 areas.
All the while having to be begrudgingly Bullish as we know the next Red vectors are up at $84, $85, $88 and $92. But this could be for the next Bull party (with 84.45 level seeming the most likely of the 3 in the near future) The next Red Vector candle starts at $82.25 and ends at $84.45.
We have been pretty much short scalping the majority of the way whilst holding longs from local support (75, 75.3, 75.7) after every hold and bounce. This is how to win when the short is loading.
After recovering a significant part of the Large Green manipulation candles from the 27th December 2021 with a rather sizeable Red Manipulation candle on the 3rd of Jan 2022 down at (74.3), it made sense to enter a semi medium term long as this is the behaviour that happens when Reds recover Greens, so we entered on the rise (entry-buy stop 74.6).
When the following candle, also on the 3rd Jan was a big Green Vector candle (4hr) in TVC USOIL and IDC USDWTI but Blue in FXCM, Currency.com and Capitol.com charts we knew this 1st week of Jan would be used for manipulation but more importantly a short(s) will come this week and have been banging on about it all week.
We closed all longs from (75-75.7 range) and entered Shorts on the 6th Jan from 79.39, 80.2 and 80.09 claiming $0.70, $0.90 and $0.70 cents.
Applying the same strategy had similar results on Fri 7th Jan 80.40, 80.40 and 80.35 claiming $0.70, $0.50 & $1.70.
We are holding a partial position on shorts and a new long position from 78.5 that is ready to stop out at 10 pips if need be.
Th reason we stayed extra bearish into Fri 7th Jan is because the main 4hr candle of the previous day (2pm-6pm UTC) 6th closed Purple which is what we had been waiting to see for Bearish confirmation at the highs. This is the behaviour when Purple vectors recover Green ones at highs.
There was then another significant Purple candle down on the 4hr which gives further Bearish indication. However as always in Oil, you can never just forget about the "Beast" that goes where it wants when it wants and can always turn Bullish at any time.
Below are the results of a very successful shorting week and a half:
Wed 29 Dec - Shorts (2) 76.3 -75.3 ($1.00) (100 pips) & 77.00-75.30 ($1.30) (130 pips)
Thur 30 Dec - Shorts (2) 76.9 - 75.8 ($1.10) (110 pips) & 77.35-76.15 ($1.20) (120 pips)
Fri 31 Dec - Shorts (2) 77.00-75.3 ($1.70) (170 pips) & 76.50-76.10 ($1.40) (140 pips)
Mon 03 Jan - Shorts (2) 76.30-74.70 ($1.50) (150 pips) & 76.3-75.8 ($0.50) (50 pips) - alarm that induced longs (Bears ran out of steam temporarily)
- Longs (1) 74.60-80.00 ($5.40) (540 pips) (closed on Thur 6 Jan) (Entered first of shorts)
Tue 04 Jan - Shorts (1) 77.50-76.70 ($0.70) ( 70 pips)
Wed 05 Jan - Shorts (2) 77.10-76.50 ($0.50) ( 50 pips) & 78.25-76.85 ($1.40) (140 pips)
Thu 06 Jan - Shorts (3) 80.00-79.30 ($0.70) (70 pips) 80.09-79.19 ($0.90) (90 pips) & 79.85-79.15 ($0.70) (70 pips)
Fri 07 Jan - Shorts (3) 80.40-79.70 ($0.70) (70 pips) 80.40-79.90 ($0.50) (50 pips) & 80.35-78.65 ($1.70) (Closed 70% left 30% over weekend)
Longs (1) 78.50- open (target 80-80.5 - extended target 84.45) holding with stops at 10 pips
PS we are still on short bias overall but need to see how Bullish next week can be but more crucially if there will be Blue to cancel out the purple to take us past 80.5 and to 82.25-84.45 range. If we see only Green Vectors recovering the Purple and Red vectors at the current high, we can see some more of the Greens below get recovered before any new rally up.
Happy trading guys
All the while having to be begrudgingly Bullish as we know the next Red vectors are up at $84, $85, $88 and $92. But this could be for the next Bull party (with 84.45 level seeming the most likely of the 3 in the near future) The next Red Vector candle starts at $82.25 and ends at $84.45.
We have been pretty much short scalping the majority of the way whilst holding longs from local support (75, 75.3, 75.7) after every hold and bounce. This is how to win when the short is loading.
After recovering a significant part of the Large Green manipulation candles from the 27th December 2021 with a rather sizeable Red Manipulation candle on the 3rd of Jan 2022 down at (74.3), it made sense to enter a semi medium term long as this is the behaviour that happens when Reds recover Greens, so we entered on the rise (entry-buy stop 74.6).
When the following candle, also on the 3rd Jan was a big Green Vector candle (4hr) in TVC USOIL and IDC USDWTI but Blue in FXCM, Currency.com and Capitol.com charts we knew this 1st week of Jan would be used for manipulation but more importantly a short(s) will come this week and have been banging on about it all week.
We closed all longs from (75-75.7 range) and entered Shorts on the 6th Jan from 79.39, 80.2 and 80.09 claiming $0.70, $0.90 and $0.70 cents.
Applying the same strategy had similar results on Fri 7th Jan 80.40, 80.40 and 80.35 claiming $0.70, $0.50 & $1.70.
We are holding a partial position on shorts and a new long position from 78.5 that is ready to stop out at 10 pips if need be.
Th reason we stayed extra bearish into Fri 7th Jan is because the main 4hr candle of the previous day (2pm-6pm UTC) 6th closed Purple which is what we had been waiting to see for Bearish confirmation at the highs. This is the behaviour when Purple vectors recover Green ones at highs.
There was then another significant Purple candle down on the 4hr which gives further Bearish indication. However as always in Oil, you can never just forget about the "Beast" that goes where it wants when it wants and can always turn Bullish at any time.
Below are the results of a very successful shorting week and a half:
Wed 29 Dec - Shorts (2) 76.3 -75.3 ($1.00) (100 pips) & 77.00-75.30 ($1.30) (130 pips)
Thur 30 Dec - Shorts (2) 76.9 - 75.8 ($1.10) (110 pips) & 77.35-76.15 ($1.20) (120 pips)
Fri 31 Dec - Shorts (2) 77.00-75.3 ($1.70) (170 pips) & 76.50-76.10 ($1.40) (140 pips)
Mon 03 Jan - Shorts (2) 76.30-74.70 ($1.50) (150 pips) & 76.3-75.8 ($0.50) (50 pips) - alarm that induced longs (Bears ran out of steam temporarily)
- Longs (1) 74.60-80.00 ($5.40) (540 pips) (closed on Thur 6 Jan) (Entered first of shorts)
Tue 04 Jan - Shorts (1) 77.50-76.70 ($0.70) ( 70 pips)
Wed 05 Jan - Shorts (2) 77.10-76.50 ($0.50) ( 50 pips) & 78.25-76.85 ($1.40) (140 pips)
Thu 06 Jan - Shorts (3) 80.00-79.30 ($0.70) (70 pips) 80.09-79.19 ($0.90) (90 pips) & 79.85-79.15 ($0.70) (70 pips)
Fri 07 Jan - Shorts (3) 80.40-79.70 ($0.70) (70 pips) 80.40-79.90 ($0.50) (50 pips) & 80.35-78.65 ($1.70) (Closed 70% left 30% over weekend)
Longs (1) 78.50- open (target 80-80.5 - extended target 84.45) holding with stops at 10 pips
PS we are still on short bias overall but need to see how Bullish next week can be but more crucially if there will be Blue to cancel out the purple to take us past 80.5 and to 82.25-84.45 range. If we see only Green Vectors recovering the Purple and Red vectors at the current high, we can see some more of the Greens below get recovered before any new rally up.
Happy trading guys
