The rand could be set to take a beating

FX:USDZAR   U.S. Dollar / South African Rand
The budget speech takes place later on today and the recent events in South Africa has created an impression that lacks confidence from investors.

The Eskom debt and maintenance debacle is not going down well with Pravin Gordhan holding his cards close to his chest on plans to get the troubled utility back on its feet and avoid affecting businesses as has happened earlier in 2019. On the political end the DA leader had resigned as did the mayor of Joburg creating more uncertainty in one of the fastest and financially powerful cities in the country.

The unemployment rate is at an 11 year high nearing the 30% mark which reinforces the clear picture of a failing governance plunging into poverty.

Now with some of the fundamental things out in the open I'll dig into the technicals BECAUSE IT WORKS (Sorry fundamentalists!)

The market is currently trading slightly higher after reversing at the previous low around the 14.50xx zone. When I draw a support level here I can see respect to this level when checking back so I am interested to trade off this level - giving the budget speech perfect timing to be a catalyst for the market to move from this level.

I have noted that the daily time frame shows a bearish market HOWEVER there is a bullish engulfing bar completed on the same 14.50xx level. A bullish engulfing bar on support on the daily and 4 hourly time frame? Really? See where I am going with this?

I'd like to see the market structure promote bullish momentum by means of forming higher lows where a pullback can be used for an entry. My heart says buy but my head works on the technicals so for now I wait and see IF a signal comes forth.

Moody's is also to provide their rating on SA and the investment grade seems likely to drop to junk due to all the problems the country and political parties are facing. Well what do ya many influencing factors. Trading purely on the fundamentals can leave you with a damaged account and a news headline saying "the move was already priced in" - go figure hehe.

Let's see what shakes :)


One of the best write ups on my favorite pair. Excellent! Follow for follow please and thank you. Looking forward to it
Cmasterza mrsceleste
@mrsceleste, thanks! Following back :)
Your fundamentals are bit off, meaning you listed a lot of stuff that's not very important but in general I like the idea. Here is what's most important.

1. Wednesday is extremely important because:
A) Medium Term Budget Policy Statement - local
B) FOMC - global

2. Friday is also extremely important because:
A) Moody's - local
B) NFP - global

Now the Eskom plan statement by Finance Minister sucked. It was weak because it didn't address the elephant in the room - Eskom's debt. And that's the reason for the doji we formed on the weekly so far. Next, the consensus is that Moody's won't downgrade to junk - although Renaissance Capital which is has a great track record at forecasting sovereign rating changes predicts a downgrade. Moody's can also change the Outlook from Stable to Negative which is usually the stage before Junk. Also, it might downgrade to Junk and that will be a BIG surprise against the consensus with the obvious consequences for the rand. What Moody's will do is anyone's guess given their strange behavior but in theory, their decision should heavily depend on MTBPS.
lentus lentus
@lentus, Correction the Eskom statement was by Public Enterprises Minister.
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