Short BRICS currencies movement for the week – 7 February 2020
For those thinking that the Rand is back to its old ways, should note that the Rand’s weakness (against the USD) got very little to do with Eskom’s or SAA’s. It was another week where the US showing its might (Euro lost 1.4% against the USD), with the Rand closing above the R15/USD level for the first time since November last year.
#BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -0.9%
Russia -0.3%
India +0.1%
China -0.9%
South Africa -0.3%
Euro/USD -1.4%
Technically, the Rand (ZAR) back above the R15/USD level definitely isn’t positive if you’re a Rand bull, like me.
Not only did the price break through (trading above) all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200day moving averages (EMA), but all EMA’s are now suddenly pointing upward. This is a clear indication that the trend now lost quite a bit of its “health”.
Should weakness continue, the ZAR could very much test R15.50 soon. This would be very negative technically and could very much see us test the weak levels of end 2015.
The ZAR finds itself close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI.
Should the ZAR however break below R14.93, could see the ZAR find support at both the 8- and 21 day EMA’s (R14.83 & R14.65). R14.65 is quite a strong support-level with a break and close below these levels most probably placing us back at R14.50. Should we break below R14.50, could see the ZAR seek support at R14.15.
I still maintain my longer-term (positive) stance on the Rand, with a medium-term target of R13.85. Most likely trading band this week are being between R14.50 and R15.
#BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -0.9%
Russia -0.3%
India +0.1%
China -0.9%
South Africa -0.3%
Euro/USD -1.4%
Technically, the Rand (ZAR) back above the R15/USD level definitely isn’t positive if you’re a Rand bull, like me.
Not only did the price break through (trading above) all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200day moving averages (EMA), but all EMA’s are now suddenly pointing upward. This is a clear indication that the trend now lost quite a bit of its “health”.
Should weakness continue, the ZAR could very much test R15.50 soon. This would be very negative technically and could very much see us test the weak levels of end 2015.
The ZAR finds itself close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI.
Should the ZAR however break below R14.93, could see the ZAR find support at both the 8- and 21 day EMA’s (R14.83 & R14.65). R14.65 is quite a strong support-level with a break and close below these levels most probably placing us back at R14.50. Should we break below R14.50, could see the ZAR seek support at R14.15.
I still maintain my longer-term (positive) stance on the Rand, with a medium-term target of R13.85. Most likely trading band this week are being between R14.50 and R15.