Long-Term(1-year relatively) Long-position Opportunity - USDZAR

I don't see the ZAR strengthening against the dollars to the levels of 2013/2014/2015/2016.

2 major things that are different between now and then is:

South Africa's Junk Status, loss of bond income
South Africa's economical damage suffered from the corona virus and its inability to handle it effectively like first-world countries

1 ongoing problem is Eskom's debt

I see the median/average at 2013/2014/2015/2016 between R13-R16.

I have read that Absa sees the ZAR as undervalued and that a more fair value against the dollar should be R14.50

I read that the dollar might drop max or around 6% in value next year

The only thing I worry about is what the "hyped" expectations of a corona virus vaccine being released or starting to be officially distributed next year might do to the value of the ZAR, we might see a plunge to below R14.50 but I think it will be short and temporary.

I believe the ZAR will continue its weakening against the dollar once the true state and situation of South Africa's economical and political situation becomes the headline again or becomes less obscured once the corona-virus-vaccine events are passed.

I didn't use a lot technical analysis, I crudely applied 2 linear regressions on 2 different dates on the past, 2009 May 9, and the start date of the chart, and both indicate that the ZAR is in the lower half and that it is more likely to go up from here or it is more likely to revert to the mean.

weekly moving averages of 200 and 50 also indicate a trend-reversal is more possible now or near R14.50 on the weekly timeline, I do not trust the daily timeline, it seems to be too volatile to help if you use 200 and 50 moving averages.

Trade closed: target reached:

Opened USDZAR position of R350000/23000 USD at R15.0* when I posted this idea.

Just sold R255000/16000 USD of position for a meager profit of 10/20c difference.

Keeping the remaining R95000 / 6000 USD in play for the original plan.

Trade active:

adjusting stop loss to 14.60, take profit stays unchanged.
still have 6000 USD in play

Trade closed: target reached:

sold the rest of my remaining positon (6000 USD):

closed the position fully, max return would be 6%, too low, lower than the interest rates in banks, but I was using leverage before, so return would have been 10%+, but not anymore.
Decided to put that money and invest in Chevron (NYSE:CVX), bought 75 shares there.