MrRenev

Fail country in the making

Long
MrRenev Updated   
FX:USDZAR   U.S. Dollar / South African Rand
The NAZI's are on the rise in this soon to be fail country. Idiots throw the word NAZI towards anyone they do not like, but remember what it means "Nationalist and Socialist". Any party/politician that is Nationalist and Socialist is NAZI like it or not.

Right now populism is on the rise, first some dude was hinting he wanted to kill whites one day if things did not get better, now some moron is openly calling for their genocide. If people can think objectively, critically, they will see it is far worse than "evilest man ever" Hitler in 1930.

Cannot short their currency yet as then I get negative carry, and who knows when it would go down.
Even IF the NAZI's get elected, it can take a long while to crash. Venezuela took a while right? That was only socialism thought, not full NAZI.

A more similar example is the example of neighbooring (smaller) country Zimbabwe.


US Dollar to ZW Dollar Timeline

1998: An economic crisis marked by high interest rates and inflation provokes riots and the rise of populism.
1 USD = 24 ZWD

1999: World Bank and IMF suspend aid to Zimbabwe (because of the marxist agenda).

Early 2000: When Mugabe decides to suddenly and brutally take farms from whites based on their skin color (my opinion is that simply not letting people inherit would be smoother and fair). People at the bottom of the social ladder cheer, they are euphoric, extremely happy.

Early 2002: Rate (official) = 1 USD = 55 ZWD (estimated to be 10 times worse in real I did not find any trading history whatever)

Late 2003: The country has already sunk. Hundreds of companies shut down.
1 USD = 750 ZWD (Traders are up more than 90% in 1 year and half if that was even tradeable. Zimbabwe was always much smaller than SA).

Early 2004: Sanctions from the EU hit Mugabe, the literal NAZI (Nationalist and socialist hence LITERALLY a NAZI, only difference is they bashed whites skulls with axes instant rather than lock them up in camps and gaz them, Anne Frank didn't have time to hold a diary here).
1 USD = 750 ZWD

2005: We learn that Mugabe is randomly bulldozing poor people shacks, I guess they ruin the view from his palace or something. 5 to 10% of the population end up homeless (hundreds of thousands to a million). The exact people that supported him for his nationalist and socialist ideas get rekt ;) I heard they were not that euphoric anymore ;) ;) ;)
1 USD = 80.000 ZWD (end of year) Another > 90% gain in 18 months for anyone that shorted the fail country currency.

2006: Genius President creates "New Zimbabwe Dollar" 1 USD = 101 new ZWD = 101,000 old ZWD (Just like Hugo Chavez created "Fuerte" Bolivar member? I member)
By the end of the year 1 USD = 162 new ZWD = 162,070 old ZWD.

2007: It starts getting better. For bears I mean :D Inflation accelerates. Going to have to use power of 10's at that point.

2008: Rate starts at 1 USD = 10^10 ZWD, ends the year at 10^30 omfg I'm cracking up.

2009: The "fourth Zimbabwe dollar" was invented. I am shaking. IT DROPPED SO MUCH THAT COMPUTERS COULD NOT HANDLE ALL THE ZERO'S. BUSINESSES AND TRADERS LOST THEIR MINDS.
Banks had to input a lesser amount on the deposit or withdrawal slip then would put a covering statement, such as “multiply by 1 000 000 or add 10 zeros to your amount to get the real value”.
The country abandonned their garbage currency and sticked to the us dollar.

2014-2016: At a bank I work in, we cannot stop joking about the Zimbabwe currency and 100 Trillion Zimbabwe dollar notes. "Hey can I pay you in Zimbabwe dollars" "This meal was a little expensive it costs 263 Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Zimbabwe dollars" "wow this is cheap only 150 Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion Zimbabwe dollars" etc.

2017: I learn Zimbabwe gets into Bitcoin. I cry. Unintentional clowns.

I cannot believe Hitler is still president there. Only difference I guess is he did not wage war. If the real Hitler did not attack the soviet union we would never have found the camps and he would still be running things in the 60's one can only assume.

A third redenomination, producing the "fourth Zimbabwe dollar," occurred in February 2009, and dropped 12 more zeros from the currency. It was thus worth 10 trillion trillion original dollars, as the three redenominations together reduced the value of an original dollar by 103 × 1010 × 1012 = 1025. Computers could not handle the amount of zeros such that other forms of money had to be used to act as normal money (bearer’s cheques). Banks had to input a lesser amount on the deposit or withdrawal slip then would put a covering statement, such as “multiply by 1 000 000 or add 10 zeros to your amount to get the real value”. The same was true for businesses as well and all traders.


Sources =
Aljazeera news (more trustworthy than most of US news today sadly...),
On the Measurement of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation (Steve H. Hanke and Alex K. F. Kwok),
Personal knowledge & the internet (ouch, must all be false then)


No need to get in as early as possible. Wait a few months or years to see how things develop, then it will be an easy way to make big returns.
The lower half of Africa is this region with all the genocides and aids and extreme poverty, with 1 exception South Africa that was civilized and everything.
I guess they got jealous of their neighboors and want to join the club? Shrugs.

Long term I am long North West Africa (countries above the equator excluding the east of course with Somalia etc with the arabs there terrorising the place) and very short on all countries south of the equator. It is a complete waste land. Good place to film zombie apocalypse movies if the crew do not care about their lives so much. Countries in "the wasteland" are so bad already we cannot even short them, but South Africa is not a part of the wasteland yet. Going to take years for it to get there.
I want to make sure I am a part of their downfall and grab as much as I can from the collapse.
I expect South Africa to remain above the rest thought, I mean they have always been the biggest country of the region even 2000 years ago so...
Seriously not expecting it to fall as much as Zimbabwe not even close, but still very hard.
If the NAZI's come to power and start genociding and all, I short it instant :p

Haha I bet if I spoke to a brainwashed south african they'd go mad "we are going to be the greatest country in the world you will see" ye sure buddy, just like Bitcoin kept going up after December 2017 I was wrong about that too, thanks for filling my sell orders.

Past performance is not indicative bla bla bla, I am not an advisor bla bla bla, you know.
Comment:
What a surprise.
President Cyril Ramaphosa promises to nationalise Reserve Bank.

Number of times this has ended well: 0.
Number of times this has ended Venezuela: :)

It's going to stop there thought and not going to get worse right?
What a surprise it will be if we get more typical smart decision and witness events.

I expect to post updates such as
"Wow! Riots in the streets! Who could have seen this coming!"
"Wow! Farmers got murdered! No way?!!"
"Wow! Deportations? What a surprise!"
"Wow! South Africa makes a new currency? No!"
"Wow! People voted for the extreme left/right? Shocking."

Etc...

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