You you followed the "Adv. Market Geometry Lessons" offered over the past months, you are now aware of this pair having hit its targets in the way up, and most recently, its first quantitative target ("TG-1") as we defined a top-reversal and are now considering a probable decline.
The Predictive/Forecasting Model targets are as follows:
1 - TARGET HIT - TG-1 = 11.81170 - 10 MAR 2015
2 - TG-2 = 12.42361 - 10 MAR 2015
3 - TG-3 = 10.46000 - 10 MAR 2015
4 - TG-Lo = 9.48240 - 10 MAR 2015
At a finer granular level, I have just posted the following geometry, whose direction falls in line with the Model's direction
$USDZAR offers a completed geometry with probable decline to 11.8427:
$USD $ZAR #forex
Both geometries are unfolding at the WEEKLY and HOURLY levels. However, I will provide the more interesting analyses off of the hourly or 4-hour charts as we move along.
Invalidation of the HOURLY analysis should occur upon price adversely excursing beyond the 5-second level (only the 5-prime is shown in the chart). However, even if and once price completes the geometric cycle at the 11.84269 target level, a significant rallying could still occur up to about 12.0600 - More on this as the Predictive/Forecasting Model churns out the necessary data to complete this secondary analysis.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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1 - $USDZAR - WEEKLY:
2 - $USDZAR - DAILY:
In the weekly chart, the geometry shown remains intact and illustrated the probable succession of numerical targets (TG-1, TG-2, ... etc.) that would get hit after price successfully rallied to TG-Hi (completing a prior analysis).
In the daily chart, the pair illustrates a discreet Fibonacci extension level ("EF") at which price could find resistance in support to the expected decline found in the weekly chart - That EF level expected was 1.272, which neared the 1.618-EF using a different structural reference. The proximity of the two constitute a reasonable Fib cluster from which to expect a significant headwind.
The H1 chart I posted completed. It is now rallying a bit ... Estimating about 11.999, perhaps.
However, if you pulled a DAILY chart, you might start seeing the outline of a very large system there, where Point-1 occurred on 30 JAN 2014, and an ectopic Poin-5 peaked on 13 MAR 2015. It is not a very straight-forward Geo, but has a general allure of one.
Are you seeing it?