$USD vs. $ZAR: Abysmal Predictive/Forecasting Model | #forex

FX:USDZAR   U.S. Dollar / South African Rand

You you followed the "Adv. Market Geometry Lessons" offered over the past months, you are now aware of this pair having hit its bullish targets in the way up, and most recently, its first bearish quantitative target ("TG-1") as we defined a top-reversal and are now considering a probable decline.

The Predictive/Forecasting Model targets are as follows:

1 - TARGET HIT - TG-1 = 11.81170 - 10 MAR 2015

2 - TG-2 = 12.42361 - 10 MAR 2015

3 - TG-3 = 10.46000 - 10 MAR 2015


4 - TG-Lo = 9.48240 - 10 MAR 2015

At a finer granular level, I have just posted the following geometry, whose direction falls in line with the Model's bearish direction

$USDZAR offers a completed geometry with probable decline to 11.8427:

$USD $ZAR #forex


Both geometries are unfolding at the WEEKLY and HOURLY levels. However, I will provide the more interesting analyses off of the hourly or 4-hour charts as we move along.

Invalidation of the HOURLY analysis should occur upon price adversely excursing beyond the 5-second level (only the 5-prime is shown in the chart). However, even if and once price completes the geometric             cycle at the 11.84269 target level, a significant rallying could still occur up to about 12.0600 - More on this as the Predictive/Forecasting Model churns out the necessary data to complete this secondary analysis.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

26 July 2015


Hi David

I know this chart does not comply to all the Geo rules, however a WW seems to be in play with a higher probability of a decline....would you agree? Thank you

+1 Reply
@iefan - There are two charts that were posted some time ago ... As follows:




In the weekly chart, the geometry shown remains intact and illustrated the probable succession of numerical targets (TG-1, TG-2, ... etc.) that would get hit after price successfully rallied to TG-Hi (completing a prior analysis).

In the daily chart, the pair illustrates a discreet Fibonacci extension level ("EF") at which price could find resistance in support to the expected decline found in the weekly chart - That EF level expected was 1.272, which neared the 1.618-EF using a different structural reference. The proximity of the two constitute a reasonable Fib cluster from which to expect a significant headwind.

+1 Reply
21 May 2015

$USDZAR Hi David....did I chart it correctly?

+1 Reply
Hello, @iefan - Looks great.

+1 Reply
@ iefan, I´m considering this chart. I still have doubt on the noted circle because it was slighlt lower low than 2
iefan Realisto_FX
@jpocalles, my sincerest apologizes, I have only just noticed your post. I have found that I force the WW or Geo on some pairs, thinking that there must be a WW or Geo in here somewhere. Inevitably these 'forced' WW or Geo's have a much lower probability of resolving in ones favor. So as difficult as it is I try and move on to another pair and look for a Geo or WW which is forming more naturally and is easier to recognize. Out of interest your chart above looks like one of David's AWW, but I don't know enough about them to be more specific. See below for my latest speculative trade on USDZAR. Cheers Iefan
+1 Reply
20 May 2015


Hi David. I posted this on 17 May 2015, 2 WW geos at play.
+2 Reply
Hello @iefan - Very nice.

The H1 chart I posted completed. It is now rallying a bit ... Estimating about 11.999, perhaps.

However, if you pulled a DAILY chart, you might start seeing the outline of a very large system there, where Point-1 occurred on 30 JAN 2014, and an ectopic Poin-5 peaked on 13 MAR 2015. It is not a very straight-forward Geo, but has a general allure of one.

Are you seeing it?

+2 Reply
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