4xForecaster
Short

$USD vs. $ZAR Signal Potential Decline To 11.389 | #rand #forex

FX:USDZAR   U.S. Dollar/South African Rand
a year ago
Friends,


Look for a breach of the 2-4 Line (even beyond defined geometry) for a potential short signaling. Bears are starting to weigh on the $USDZAR pair, while #USDollar is also shoeing signs of fatigue across other pairs (in addition, look for internal weakening in $SPX             and $USDJPY             correlate).


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Background geometry is the Wolfe Wave with its 1-4 Target Line lurking beneath, whereas a structure at a narrow 11.389/11.360 is likely to offer a solid floor if and once above bearish scenarios plays out.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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a year ago
Comment: 27 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

(initiated speculative ATHENA in ATHENA Room)

Price continues to move in forecast direction. ATHENA outline remains highly speculative:

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David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
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Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Now in the 5'
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Hello @LighthouseKeeper,

Action is in lower frame.


David
+1 Reply
18 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDZAR nears Geo's 5' trigger line; High-prob reversal to Point-4 Level per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

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$USD $ZAR #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Been watching....finger on the trigger! Thanks for the update David!
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
@David 15 M chart Geo also about to complete!
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+1 Reply
iefan PRO
a year ago
20 Aug 2015

$USDZAR

Hi David,

Price just touched the 5' position, I have entered short with a stop at the FE 1.414 of the Point 4 to Point 5' Leg ( plus spread, plus 5 pips ) and a TP at a level corresponding to Point 4. I've attempted to use the suggestions and lessons from some of your other posts. Am I close to having a sensible and reasonable trading plan here for this pair and TF? Thank you as always. iefan
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Reply
20 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$ZAR hit 3-5' trigger line as forecast; Expecting 12.32 target per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

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$USDZAR #rand #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
@iefan - I would consider using the entire swing which passes through all initial points (1 and 2) of the Geo in order to define a prudent SL level. However, in this case, you can see that the 1.414 level has been exceeded (which should cause the trader to give up that position from an earlier short-entry, and wait until a geometric even, such as the 3-5' Line validation occurs, as it did in this case).

The fact that both the 3-5' validation and the 1.618-FE lines were hit at the same convergent point will likely impose significant stop on any further rally. To be sure, I also decided to look at a near target above that level and got the following in the chart:


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Overall, bears are likely to take over and aim for 12.32 as the highest probability target and most immediate probability. It took us mid-July to now to rise from that same level, and I would expect that a momentum (slope over time) would offer a similar dynamic resolution.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you very much David, perfectly explained. I get it! Cheers iefan
+1 Reply
31 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USD v $ZAR Smaller Geo cedes to larger Geo; Eyes lower bearish target; Invalidates > 13.47:

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#rand #forex $USDZAR
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
04 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Rarest 5-second (5'') occurrence completed at this week's close. Watch for a probable decline to the price level corresponding to Point-3, as per Geo's OffSet Rule:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David. Thank you for continuing to post updates on this rather exotic pair, it is much appreciated. A quick questions.....from a technical point of view how would you determine a stop loss on this entry at 5"? Thank you as always. Kind regards
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hello @iefan - Looking at the 5'' move, this represents a 1.618-FE:


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What I'd consider doing in this case is to repeat the same 1.618-FE extension using the structures that were defined by last rally (i.e.: The higher-high and higher-low in the Fib matrix, and casting upwards its 1.618). You will see that this level is already attained.


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So now, only a spread and 3-5 pips should be the only safety measures used to define your SL.


David
+1 Reply
08 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$USDZAR falls from 5'' as forecast; Limited retracement expected; Target remains Pt-3 per Geo Off-Set Rule:

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#rand


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM / Tech-Note:

Here, a simple note to highlight the consistency of the Geo's Off-Set Rule - The level from which price is expected to decline, we are looking at a 5'' departure point, which is simply the geometric convergence of price highest adverse excursion as it validates the 2-4 Line originating off of Point-1. This is the RAREST of the Geo's adverse excursion, whereby Point-5 finds itself at an "outside-place", or ex-topia ("ectopia"). This ectopic placement of Point-5 at 5' or 5'' will define a VERY important probability event, in the case of a retracement. This is what the Geo's Off-Set Rule establishes, which is simply that from a 5' position, price will reverse to reach the price level of Point-4 as the HIGHEST probability event, whereas the departure from Point'' would seek a geometric adjustment, whereby price would aim for the price level of Point-3.

It happens that 5' attainment is the most frequent event, followed by Point-5 (which aims for the 1-4 Line, as per the Wolfe Wave Rule), whereas Point5'' is the rarest of them all.

If you need to refer to a more recent completion of this entire Geo cycle (i.e.: Points 1 to 5 are connected, and then a target is validated based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule), then simply look at the greyed-in Geo to the left of the current (BLUE) Geo, where a cycle completion did occurred specifically based on this Geo's Off-Set Rule.

Kapish?

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
14 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Looking back at the chart, we were pushed up at Point-5, then Point-5', and finally Point-5'' - This offers a perfect example of the adverse excursion which a trader might incur when trading with the Geo. The important point here is to develop your st of rules regarding engagement and disengagement from a trade, using specific rules relative to a trendline, a price level or what ever you have decided that fits your risk management profile best.

This live example also illustrate quite well the three levels of possible attainment in terms of adverse excursion, so long as price is indeed declining from here - In which case, the Geo's Off-Set Rule should prevail over any other measured targets in terms of probability ranking:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
16 - SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


As price continues to fall from its 5'' position, we also continue to expect the Geo's Off-Set Rule to apply, thus looking at Price-3 attainment as the highest-probability event:


Note also that, passing the chart through the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the following targets are as follow:

1 - TG-1 = 12.94603 - 16 SEP 2015

2 - TG-Lo = 12.68373 - 16 SEP 2015

and

3 - TG-Lox = 12.51395 - 16 SEP 2015


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David, do you think it is probable that this KoD could start the decline toward TG -1 ? Kind regards iefan
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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
@iefan - Excellent pick-up.

Looking at a lower target, this KoD can sometimes point to its destination. Using the nadir to recent top, the reverse 1.618-Fib extension falls snugly in line with the Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets ... Quite a convenience and reassurance, if you asked me.

Here is what the chart looks like with the Fib matrix.


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Note that:

1 - The 1.618 defines Model's targets, as just mentioned
2 - The 50% Line of the Fib matrix is likely to be the TRIGGER for a down move - I would consult Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternations and appreciate what this level is likely to define, as I believe that the expected descent to that level will be a more complex price action. If you look at it from an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from the termination level of wave-4 (squared-in numbers) to wave-5 is too straight an terminal impulse. For this reason, I would expect greater complexity in the price action that is about to occur.

This leaves to wonder whether the speculated wave-5 would terminate where I posted it. I expect that either a truncation occurs (i.e.: a failure of the market to bring bulls higher than the termination of wave-3, or if it had to rally any further, I would look for a 1.414 extension using the recent height.

Again, great eye for the Kod!


David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Note also that the 1.618-Fib extension, which falls in line with the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target would see price reverse from a 5'' position. This calls for the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, which offers the price level of Point-3 of the Geo as the highest probability event. This level happens to be right at that 1.618-Fib ... and the Model's stated targets.

Too good to be true, but here it is.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
moorekapital PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Looks we had a clean bounce. Now, the selloff may begin
USDZAR: SHORT BELOW THIS =>>>
+1 Reply
25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Watch out for this 50% Line. It poses a significant hurdle technical hurdle against bears, acting as a temporizing support to bulls as they weave a more complex correction. I would look for TWO conditions:

1 - A bearish impulse ...

... followed by:

2 - a correction to the upside, and then and only then enter at the break of the 4th wave of that C's correction.

There waves are yet to occur, but are sine qua non to any decline.


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
28 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


New Target: WL at 14.16016, representing a high-probability reversal (and last tolerance level per Predictive/Forecasting Model) - Geo remains in force with reversal from 5'' calling for Geo's Offset Rule #3:


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
29 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

This trade has wandered off up to the WL I defined last night (this is the last tolerable level defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model calling for reversal or demanding a higher timeframe of analysis). As price just hit that level at the tip-top of the bar, it then reversed. If price remains under that level and does not attempt to mount on offensive in the form of a bullish impulse, then there is a high probability that we were able to define a tip-top reversal and see price decline for this WL level.

However, if price defines a bullish impulse and BACA > WL, then we would have to consider this analysis null and void, and carry our attention to a higher timeframe.


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO
a year ago
Hi David

I was wondering if you wouldn't mind having a look at this developing ATHENA on the USDZAR pair? Do you ever trade the 4 - 5 Leg of the ATHENA like you sometimes trade the 4-5 Leg of a Geo or WW? Kind regards Iefan
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Reply
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