Look for a breach of the 2-4 Line (even beyond defined geometry) for a potential short signaling. Bears are starting to weigh on the $USDZAR pair, while #USDollar is also shoeing signs of fatigue across other pairs (in addition, look for internal weakening in $SPX and $USDJPY correlate).
Background geometry is the with its 1-4 Target Line lurking beneath, whereas a structure at a narrow 11.389/11.360 is likely to offer a solid floor if and once above scenarios plays out.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
(initiated speculative ATHENA in ATHENA Room)
Price continues to move in forecast direction. ATHENA outline remains highly speculative:
This trade has wandered off up to the WL I defined last night (this is the last tolerable level defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model calling for reversal or demanding a higher timeframe of analysis). As price just hit that level at the tip-top of the bar, it then reversed. If price remains under that level and does not attempt to mount on offensive in the form of a bullish impulse, then there is a high probability that we were able to define a tip-top reversal and see price decline for this WL level.
However, if price defines a bullish impulse and BACA > WL, then we would have to consider this analysis null and void, and carry our attention to a higher timeframe.
Watch out for this 50% Line. It poses a significant hurdle technical hurdle against bears, acting as a temporizing support to bulls as they weave a more complex correction. I would look for TWO conditions:
1 - A bearish impulse ...
... followed by:
2 - a correction to the upside, and then and only then enter at the break of the 4th wave of that C's correction.
There waves are yet to occur, but are sine qua non to any decline.
As price continues to fall from its 5'' position, we also continue to expect the Geo's Off-Set Rule to apply, thus looking at Price-3 attainment as the highest-probability event:
Note also that, passing the chart through the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the following targets are as follow:
1 - TG-1 = 12.94603 - 16 SEP 2015
2 - TG-Lo = 12.68373 - 16 SEP 2015
3 - TG-Lox = 12.51395 - 16 SEP 2015
Looking at a lower target, this KoD can sometimes point to its destination. Using the nadir to recent top, the reverse 1.618-Fib extension falls snugly in line with the Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets ... Quite a convenience and reassurance, if you asked me.
Here is what the chart looks like with the Fib matrix.
1 - The 1.618 defines Model's targets, as just mentioned
2 - The 50% Line of the Fib matrix is likely to be the TRIGGER for a down move - I would consult Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternations and appreciate what this level is likely to define, as I believe that the expected descent to that level will be a more complex price action. If you look at it from an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from the termination level of wave-4 (squared-in numbers) to wave-5 is too straight an terminal impulse. For this reason, I would expect greater complexity in the price action that is about to occur.
This leaves to wonder whether the speculated wave-5 would terminate where I posted it. I expect that either a truncation occurs (i.e.: a failure of the market to bring bulls higher than the termination of wave-3, or if it had to rally any further, I would look for a 1.414 extension using the recent height.
Again, great eye for the Kod!
Too good to be true, but here it is.
Looking back at the chart, we were pushed up at Point-5, then Point-5', and finally Point-5'' - This offers a perfect example of the adverse excursion which a trader might incur when trading with the Geo. The important point here is to develop your st of rules regarding engagement and disengagement from a trade, using specific rules relative to a trendline, a price level or what ever you have decided that fits your risk management profile best.
This live example also illustrate quite well the three levels of possible attainment in terms of adverse excursion, so long as price is indeed declining from here - In which case, the Geo's Off-Set Rule should prevail over any other measured targets in terms of probability ranking: