USGDPQQ
(Q3/2023) The American Economy (
USGDPQQ
) expanded an annualized 4.9% in the Third Quarter of 2023, slightly below 5.2% in the second estimate, but matching the 4.9% initially reported in the advance estimate.
It still marks the strongest growth since Q4 2021.
Consumer spending rose less than initially anticipated (3.1% vs 3.6% in the second estimate), but remained the biggest gain since Q4 2021.
The slowdown was mainly due to services spending.
Also, private inventories added 1.27 pp to growth, below 1.4 pp in the second estimate and both exports (5.4% vs 6%) and imports (4.2% vs 5.2%) increased less than initially anticipated.
On the other hand, nonresidential investment was revised higher to show a 1.4% rise (vs 1.3% in the second estimate) as investment in structures surged way more than expected (11.2% vs 6.9%).
Both residential investment (6.7% vs 6.2%, the first rise in nearly two years) and government spending (5.8% vs 5.5%) were also revised higher.
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Comment:
USGDPQQ
The US economy expanded an annualized 3.4% in Q4 2023, slightly above the 3.2% previously reported, supported by consumer spending and non-residential business investments, according to the third estimate from the BEA.
Consumer spending was revised higher (3.3% vs 3% in the second estimate), led by services (3.4% vs 2.8%) while goods rose less (3% vs 3.2%).
Also, non-residential investment was revised higher (3.7% vs 2.4%), due to intellectual property products (4.3% vs 3.3%, structures (10.9% vs 7.5%) and investment in equipment (-1.1% vs -1.7%).
Residential investment continued to grow although slightly less than expected (2.8% vs 2.9%). Looking further, government spending rose way more (4.6% vs 4.2%) but both exports (5.1% vs 6.4%) and imports (2.2% vs 2.7%) increased less than initially reported.
Meanwhile, the drag from private inventories was much bigger than in the second estimate (subtracted 0.47 pp from the growth vs -0.27 pp).
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
USGDPQQ
The US economy expanded an annualized 3.4% in Q4 2023, slightly above the 3.2% previously reported, supported by consumer spending and non-residential business investments, according to the third estimate from the BEA.
Consumer spending was revised higher (3.3% vs 3% in the second estimate), led by services (3.4% vs 2.8%) while goods rose less (3% vs 3.2%).
Also, non-residential investment was revised higher (3.7% vs 2.4%), due to intellectual property products (4.3% vs 3.3%, structures (10.9% vs 7.5%) and investment in equipment (-1.1% vs -1.7%).
Residential investment continued to grow although slightly less than expected (2.8% vs 2.9%). Looking further, government spending rose way more (4.6% vs 4.2%) but both exports (5.1% vs 6.4%) and imports (2.2% vs 2.7%) increased less than initially reported.
Meanwhile, the drag from private inventories was much bigger than in the second estimate (subtracted 0.47 pp from the growth vs -0.27 pp).
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Comment:
USGDPQQ
Q1/2024 @1.6%
The US Economy expanded an annualized 1.6% in Q1 2024, compared to 3.4% in the previous quarter and below forecasts of 2.5%.
It was the lowest growth since the contractions in the first half of 2022, the advance estimate showed.
A slowdown was seen for consumer spending (2.5% vs 3.3%), mainly due to a fall in goods consumption (-0.4% vs 3%) while spending on services rose faster (4% vs 3.4%).
Non-residential investment also eased (2.9% vs 3.7%), due to structures (-0.1% vs 10.9%) while investment in equipment rebounded (2.1% vs -1.1%) and the one on intellectual property products (5.4% vs 4.3%) accelerated. Looking further, government spending rose way less (1.2% vs 4.6%), and exports slowed sharply (0.9% vs 5.1%) while imports soared (7.2% vs 2.2%). Meanwhile, private inventories subtracted 0.35 pp from the growth (vs -0.47 pp).
On the other hand, residential investment jumped at a double-digit pace (13.9% vs 2.8%).
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
USGDPQQ
Q1/2024 @1.6%
The US Economy expanded an annualized 1.6% in Q1 2024, compared to 3.4% in the previous quarter and below forecasts of 2.5%.
It was the lowest growth since the contractions in the first half of 2022, the advance estimate showed.
A slowdown was seen for consumer spending (2.5% vs 3.3%), mainly due to a fall in goods consumption (-0.4% vs 3%) while spending on services rose faster (4% vs 3.4%).
Non-residential investment also eased (2.9% vs 3.7%), due to structures (-0.1% vs 10.9%) while investment in equipment rebounded (2.1% vs -1.1%) and the one on intellectual property products (5.4% vs 4.3%) accelerated. Looking further, government spending rose way less (1.2% vs 4.6%), and exports slowed sharply (0.9% vs 5.1%) while imports soared (7.2% vs 2.2%). Meanwhile, private inventories subtracted 0.35 pp from the growth (vs -0.47 pp).
On the other hand, residential investment jumped at a double-digit pace (13.9% vs 2.8%).
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
The US economy expanded an annualized 3.3% in Q4 2023, much better than forecasts of a 2% rise, and following a 4.9% rate in Q3, according to the advance estimate.
Consumer spending slowed (2.8% vs 3.1% in Q3), led by goods (3.8% vs 4.9%) while consumption of services rose faster (2.4% vs 2.2%), led by food services, accommodations, and health care.
Also, private inventories added only 0.07 pp to growth, below 1.27 pp in Q3, and government spending rose at a slower pace (3.3% vs 5.8%).
On the other hand, exports accelerated (6.3% vs 5.4%) and imports grew less (1.9% vs 4.2%).
Looking further, non-residential investment increased more (1.9% vs 1.4%), led by a rebound in equipment (1% vs -4.4%) and a rise in intellectual property products (2.1% vs 1.8%) while investment in structures eased (3.2% vs 11.2%). Finally, residential investment continued to grow although at a slower pace. Considering full 2023, the US economy grew 2.5%, compared to 1.9% in 2022 and the Fed's estimates of 2.6%.
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis