This week, as analyzed previously, we continued to drift higher by a reasonable pace. Although there has been two days of retracement, this is obviously not enough after the recent uptrend starting on early october. All market participants talk about, and expect a retracement which refuses to come. We witnessed a significant number of participants having a very cautious approach these days about initiating swing positions (few days to few weeks). The consensus, as well as numerous indicator’s overbought levels dictate a behaviour of initiating only near term positions with very tight stops.
Technically speaking, the recent surge in adds to the concerns of a near term trend reversal - When reaches a peak on a continuous trend, it’s a clear sign that the trend might be over.
Lets have a look at our two basic indicators which always give us a good indication of where the market is headed - DIG Break and DIG Smart Points. (These indicators are the work of ProTradingIndicators.com and are available within a monthly subscription plan on TradingView)
The first indicator ( Break) tells aus about important tops and bottoms of the underlying asset. The chosen tops and bottoms (Notice that only a select of them are chosen) are very important because they they tell us a lot about the buyers/sellers equilibrium. Each time a green line is being drawn on the chart, it means this level is set as an important , a level that sellers had a greater strength and overcame the force of the buyers. If, in a certain scenario, the price would come close to that price level from below, we would start considering two outcomes: 1) If the price breaks past that green line, this is a strong sign of the buyers being more aggressive than sellers, and prices are prone to continue the upper movement - Therefore a buy past the green line is an outcome to consider. If on the other hand prices come close to that level and the price action is not decisive - This is a sign that sellers are still on the lead (Or buyers are not that strong) and prices usually tend to fall down - Therefore a sell below the green line is an outcome to consider. Respectively, all of the above logic is valid also for the opposite scenario of a red line - Indicating that Buyers succeeded in pushing the sellers back. In a nutshell, If prices go below the red line, this is a sign and one might consider selling below that level. Additionally, prices flirting with the red line but not breaking it, might be a sign of a resuming buying spree, moving the prices away from that line again.
Disclaimer:Any opinion, analysis, or other information contained under this user is provided as a general commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Oil & Gas.
As analysed previously, things are not pretty for the ( Oil & Gas ). Prices continue to decline in weak atmosphere regarding the chart. Few support levels were breached, where the last one was the important $35, round number .
Mid term analysis supports the continuation of this price decline. We could see a moderation of the current decline around the next @ 32.50.
Nov 4 @ 10:00 AM - Factory Orders.
Nov 6 @ 10:00 AM - Leading Indicators.
Nov 7 @ 08:30 AM - GDP.
Nov 8 @ 08:30 AM - Unemployment Rate.