USO - 4hr analysis: Slowly working down to Fibonacci targets
From a four hour perspective oil prices (as represented here through the ETF - USO) have now been trending lower for two weeks. The peak into Friday the 13th (and its subsequent failure the following Monday) confirmed a broader market downturn as our time tested 'trending' indicator (that being the relationship between the 13ema and the 30sma) turned negative. That failure also confirmed a bearish 3bar candle reversal pattern, a Head & Shoulders top pattern and a 'bot' short trade setup. That top was also confirmed by momentum as our MACD Histogram has slowly made lower highs and lower lows since that event.
So if the market had indeed topped, where should we be looking for that correction to take us. A natural pullback of the rally coming out of the June lows suggests three significant short term technical targets.
1. Our '1st stop' 38.2% Fibonacci level
2. Our 2nd target 'the 50% rule'
3. Our Ultimate target a 70.5% retrace into the 'OTE Long Sweet Spot'.
After gaping lower, price spent a good portion of the past week flirting with the underside of our '1st stop' target (37.39). This repeated rejection (the last one came on a touch of the 13ema) suggest the 37.39 area may now be significant resistance. Interestingly, it also sets up a new shorter time frame 'BoT' short opportunity (please refer to USO 15m analysis for information on that). Since the 200sma and the significant low of August (36.35) sit right at our 2nd target, 'the 50% rule', I am fairly comfortable with the idea price will visit this area in the not too distant future.
Ultimately, I expect the oil market to work its way down into the OTE long sweet spot neighborhood (34.92) before it can start its seasonal bottoming process ('buy when it snows, sell when it goes'...and all that). That area also corresponds with that shorter time frame 'BoT' short setup target too. How exactly we get there is of course anyone's guess but the setups and targets are in place.
So if the market had indeed topped, where should we be looking for that correction to take us. A natural pullback of the rally coming out of the June lows suggests three significant short term technical targets.
1. Our '1st stop' 38.2% Fibonacci level
2. Our 2nd target 'the 50% rule'
3. Our Ultimate target a 70.5% retrace into the 'OTE Long Sweet Spot'.
After gaping lower, price spent a good portion of the past week flirting with the underside of our '1st stop' target (37.39). This repeated rejection (the last one came on a touch of the 13ema) suggest the 37.39 area may now be significant resistance. Interestingly, it also sets up a new shorter time frame 'BoT' short opportunity (please refer to USO 15m analysis for information on that). Since the 200sma and the significant low of August (36.35) sit right at our 2nd target, 'the 50% rule', I am fairly comfortable with the idea price will visit this area in the not too distant future.
Ultimately, I expect the oil market to work its way down into the OTE long sweet spot neighborhood (34.92) before it can start its seasonal bottoming process ('buy when it snows, sell when it goes'...and all that). That area also corresponds with that shorter time frame 'BoT' short setup target too. How exactly we get there is of course anyone's guess but the setups and targets are in place.