Let's talk energy. As you already may know, is the representing the price of crude oil . Since we're on the verge of 2013 , it's time to try an analyse the long term bias of that commodity. On the chart above, you can see a monthly chart of Oil prices since 2007. I would like to focus on the action starting at 2008 to the present. There we can see a 6 month long sharp decline and then, a consolidation of prices for about 4 years, during that consolidation also shrank to merely $20 swings. Additionally, during that consolidation, has lost its magnitude which means that at these levels, there are less participants interested in taking part of the action. I don't know what's your background in patterns but I see here a very red flag, correct me if I'm wrong. This flags could easily be presented in a chapter teaching about red flags, it was drawn by a pencil and a ruler.
Lets add to the equation a fundamental piece of information, the recent uplift of the sanctions over Iran, which practically unveils a vast supply of Oil to the energy markets...You get the idea. What's next? combining the flag, the diminishing and the up coming supply pressure, if and only if we see a drop below $30, we should see a longer term price decline of that asset. So yea, Our call of for 2014 is down!