chartwatchers

OIL - Revenge short

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
5521 66 104
As I'm watching the ideas and I can see 95% of the ideas are short in oil             .
I'm sure some of you missed this move. It looks now this is the end of the world. You were not able to long oil             when it bottomed or tested back the 200 MA. Some of you lost a lot of money during the last 3 years when it was going down day after day. Then you were waiting for oil             to go below 20$ to go long in February. It didn't happen though.
So now when you missed the move you start a revenge short. This is the way how you reset your account.
Oil             bottomed. B.O.T.T.O.M.E.D.
This low what we printed at the 200 MA is as serious as it was in February. Look how many pullbacks we had in February...
The hardest pullback was 2 red candles... Guys you can't short this market. It will rally for 5 months from now and it will break 52$ in the first daily cycle.

So you missed 6$ in this rally. What are you going to do?
1. Trying to catch a 1-2$ dollar day with you revenge short ( your chance is : 7/30=23%.) If you do that you just gamble: if you don't catch the day when it's going down you have to close your position in 24hrs because price might never go back there again in your life...
Who shorted oil             in Feb-March at the A-B-C-D-E             points was foredoomed to failure.
2. Or you are trying to get into this rally which will go minimum to 60$ in the next months - and forget about the first 6 $. You were not in the first 6$. It's not a big point. You can be the part of the next 15$.

So forget about shorting this vehicle. Get in the first red candle day and add at the first daily cycle low.
I will be here posting.
Comment: Though stock are falling, the weakening dollar pushing oil upper.
Coming out of an intermediate bottom is always a strong surge.
That's why you cant short it.
Oil will use every possibiity to rally even bad news....
Comment: *Even on bad news..
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: I hope today everybody understood why I said no shorts in the first daily cycle in oil.
Who was not long but stayed at the sidelines at least didn't lose money by shorting.
We will get that red day soon.
Comment: Thank god I posted this.
I think we saved a lot of money for you from the oil short gurus.
(Like Gartman)
Yep - took your advice last week and when it looked up this morning, bot UWTI at the open. Thank you!
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Man, you are always right !!!
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i m asking my self the same question and u r given the answare
Thanks Man
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Thats why I posted. :)
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Do you think that today would be a good time for an entry?
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Add at the end of the first red candle day
If 2 red candles add at the second day also. Always have some dry powder.
I would go up till 30% on these red days.
ANd I would add till 50% at the DCL. Then no more adding just waiting for the cycle top to take profit.
And dont forget it's a long cycle.
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you still count it'll get to 43.50 (where you have a green dot)?
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THe green dot is my last oil post.
It's hard to say when and till where will be the pullback .
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Exactly I waited for a sub 43 number but does not look like it is going to happen even with the reports it seems a far reach I am scaling in today.
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Arpi or Apri which one is it I believe in respect and we are surely connected. Yes after being laid off of giving ten years of my life to a major oil company (big five Dutch)which I understand was a business move I did get emotional in shorting oil. That is behind me, losing money last week was no fun.
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The red candle day is coming. Maybe tomorrow maybe wednesday. .
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Well spoken, Sir
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This post should be called: "Revenge of the Fallen" :)
Thanks for your ideas!
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Arpi, The option trade has influenced the latest rally to a great extent. Since expiration is Wednesday, volatility increases. The Sept 45 put open interest over 16,000 has caused somewhat
of a short squeeze here. Delta hedging has added to this rally. I would expect this squeeze to alleviate after Wednesday and a pull back should be in order on Thursday/Friday. Going long puts on
the October contract looks like a good play on Wednesday. thanks bob
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chartwatchers PRO RobertZafaras
Possible. I'M waiting for a red candle this week.
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so as soon as we see a red bar for the daily we will enter right?
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Yes. Daily. 10-15% margin impact.
If next day one more red. 10% more and thats it
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It's not too late to catch rally even at $50. If oil is going to $70, there's no difference catching it at $45 or $48. A $3 move is nothing compared to a $25-$30 move.
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So you dont see a pull to $40 before going higher?
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No. MAximum is 43
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OilGuruJack chartwatchers
It will test the 200dma and 40 again. The OPEC freeze is fake and will fade and the fundamentals are extremely bad. Supply keeps on rising and demand fading.
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Thanks, very helpful!
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thanks for your advice. up is obvious after seen your graph.
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Follow cycles. You will make more money and lose less this way.
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So if it would dived back below 43 then it would be another story ? thanks for sharing.
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Oil going to go down..The rally is over
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Do you see it breaking 46 today?
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amazing analysis chartwatchers
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Wow...
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Oil plunged the hardest starting from September. History likely repeats. I wouldn't make any judgmental call for oil, especially i doubt this is the start of a new rally.
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My 5 cents. The fact that we went down in 5 waves suggests that we will have at least one more leg down in 5 waves. Also, remember we are in bear market in oil.
snapshot
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JohnQuid PRO pbartashevich
Bear market in oil? Hope you'll use a stop.
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Nightstar pbartashevich
We are most definitely not in a Bear Market my friend. We started a brand new Bull this year and began a brand new Intermediate Cycle just a week ago.. OIL is going up to $60 minimum, regardless of Fundamentals.
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I am short since 42.80, really starting to feel the pain. Suggestions?
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Where were you in the last 2 weeks? Not wit hus I think.
Now wait for the data maybe we get a pullback to 44$. If not get out.
It might run to 50$ without looking back.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
Data comes out in 1hr. (API)
Not ARPI. API
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SupraBoy chartwatchers
He was reading other bloggers and got side tracked. Oil is definitely going higher, max pullback now is to around 43.50-43.75 range. I wouldn't be shorting regardless. Oil is on a bull run.
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phillipe chartwatchers
Thanks for the input
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Phillipe,
Looks like a mega squeeze here. Huge option volume today. Delta hedging has caused the market to run up. Tomorrow is expiration. the 47 call strike over 10,000 contracts traded today
open interest was 17,660 as of last night. My guess with this kind of OI a lot of longs are selling these 47's that expire tomorrow and pocketing the 40 cents. That's (1) day 46.69 to 47
31 cents out of the money plus 40 center premium. I would think longs are hoping to be exercised here.
I would have never held short this long. but my 2 cents is we are at an intermediate top at expiration.
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phillipe RobertZafaras
So you believe the likelyhood of DWTI returning to $93 is near impossible?
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Phillipe,
I don't personally like 3x inverse funds. If you want leverage you can trade the futures. I think crude trades flat to down tomorrow and ends the week around $ 44-46
if fundamentals start to matter we could easily see crude back to around $42.00
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Pls post when you think that "Red Day" might come.
As always, thank you for your work and ideas.
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Hello
i think that the red day will be tomorrow ,coz the U.S Inventorie of crude oil will be positiv
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amazing
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Do you think now would be a good time to take some profits and re-buy on next dip. I was a little late, in at 23.5 on UVXY.
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What if there is no next dip till 50$?
You will jump out the window or do revenge short because lost the position and dont want to chase the price.
Add on the next red day. If no red day enjoy the ride with the position you have.
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dmz chartwatchers
Sounds right to me. Thanks :)
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AYosof chartwatchers
is today the red day or it is the begining of second down.....?
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dmz dmz
*UWTI
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I don't want to spoil the party but I think it will reverse at 46.85 and fall to 35.80...as an AB=CD reversal pattern....also I feel Indices are at all time highs and a e due a correction, its stand to reason oil will fall with the stocks which is what we saw in the winter, also I know Chartwatchers is bullish on Gold as well, I don't see how Gold and Oil can boom alongside each other, in the winter when Golds went up, both oil and stocks went lower, the next few weeks will be interesting to watch, like last year we've had a Bullish Spring/Summer, once the traders get back from their holidays they will short it all....Credit crunches and economic pain always favour the autumn months....
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If no significant drop after EIA at 9:30 I am in there would be no catalyst for pull back hence one day red candle, do you agree Arpi?
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Oil keep pushing higher high. H1 is moving sideway. Will it be good to short if it break down 46.0
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Thanks for your post, that really confirms my idea.
I know I am a little crazy....
Just come up with a chart...though...
snapshot
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Nightstar xukaitan888
You need to learn how to draw trend-lines the right way buddy -- this (above) is gibberish!
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I heard that the OPEC will keep the price under 50.00, to destroy opponents. My 2 cents. I will stick at daytrading the WTI.
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If it was not Khalid al-Falih ( Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister) just ignore the info and watch the charts.
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AYosof chartwatchers
so what are you suggesting?
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suli chartwatchers
Great job!!! Would you sell your positions in WTI now ?
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OPEC freeze when we go below 20 $ next year maybe : ) this move done by the bank hard to catch and hold on to a first red pin bar on a hour chart my entry short sl one bar
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Good luck.
But get a Caterpillar vehicle to push down the bear corpses from the road on the short way down.
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DenverNugt chartwatchers
: )
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THANK U VERY MUCH SIR
U R THE BEST
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Please let us know what your thoughts in regard to oil are as of today?
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Wonderful call back to ~$49! Now what that we are here? Or do we need to run up to above $50 before any future direction to be determined?
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