Biff_Tannen

7 days to go for Crude to close above 50

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
121 3 3
The tide seems to turn for Crude. See for signs on the chart. Ideally I would say a close above 54 (taking out two previous monthly highs) would really make me bullish . It is not going to 100 again this year. But between 70 and 85 is technically possible (see related idea).

The other scenario is a close far below (<45). This could trigger another leg down to 30-20.

DAILY: New attack on the 50 MA. A close above reaches the 50-54 area
WEEKLY: Strong divergence
MONTHLY: Crossover Momentum indicator. Nice tail forming on CS            
Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
One of my favorite setups is the MACD cross over and playing it after a new low is made on lower momentum. Looks like we have gotten that on the monthly....
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Biff_Tannen Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Be cautious! I am still Bearish biased. Strong trends do not turn without some good fundamental shift! Technically there is some change going on after 7 consecutive down months, it could be..

I hope you don't rely on one indicator to trade of. Personally I trade pure price (action) with fundamentals / longer term trends in the back of my mind and only use indicators to observe.
It doesn't really matter if you use a MACD, Stoch or RSI in my opinion. On the RSI I also don't look at overbought or oversold levels, markets can stay irrational long at these levels. Only look at the signal line relative to the 50 level (measuring strength, the original purpose of it). Same goes for MA's, looking relative distance of price and rejection or penetration of one MA. Many people look at crossovers between MA's getting them whipsawed like begin March on Crude at the 20/50 MA.
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Justiceisfalse Biff_Tannen
2 years ago
On the fundamental basis, inventories are building every week and will likely continue to do so as all the projects that have been funded and slated to come online in 2015-16 will remain on track because the costs/debt needs to be repaid and idling an operation does not facilitate that. Thus, the price should be under pressure for some time still.

That being said, the selling pressure in the last 2 sessions has been a lot less violent than the buying. We could see another test and failure of the 50ema on the daily but we have to get there first. IMO you could probably play the intraday longs for the next few days. I'm not sure we have the environment necessary to get us to the 60s that the curve is telling us we are going to get but it could happen.
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