But it is a big IF! aren't enough to make a good judgement.
A close below 45 end of month and the actual fundamentals can drive the price of Crude much lower towards 20.
Even 10. It would be irrational but it is very good possible with the rising stock pile and extremes all over the markets. There comes a point when all the "pilers" flooding the market which can accelerate the price more downward. After this "pain" comes opportunity!
For an example, I think Gold can go far under 1000 before it explodes. Bitcoin dives under 100. Below 100 there will be enough buying interest, but a 1000 for Bitcoin? We never gonna see it again I am afraid.
As we all know everything is possible in trading, expect the unexpected!
That is why I always trade with multiple scenario's in the back of my mind and never being too much biased on one side of the market.