Crude Oil Short Term EW

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
56 7 1
During the whole of September oil             is in a consolidation mode via a complex corrective wave 2. It appears that the last extended wave E is composed of yet another extension of the w-x-y-x-z type. As long as prices remain below the negatively sloping trend line K-L, there is a high probability of low retesting. Re-examining wave 1 it appears that it is composed of an a-b-c sub-structure, which means that after the end of waves 2 (target 38) & 3 (target 56) a new final declining trend will emerge (targets 30 to 26; ultimate bear cycle lows).
Are you still bearish oil?
cfetrader WeMakeMoney
The situation is very complex, wave E particularly. As long as line K-L remains unbroken, I expect wave 2 to end lower at about 42 or even 38, else a rising wave 3 will drive prices towards 52 to 56.

cfetrader cfetrader
Looking from a "distance", oil may have entered the 3rd (or c) wave. One or two more candlesticks will provide enough evidence.

Do you think the low will be retested next week?
cfetrader WeMakeMoney
Most probably yes, September the 30th based on the chart (Z)-wave projection. Of course (Z) could also be subdivided into 5 additional waves making the whole process more complex, prolonging therefore the low towards anywhere between 5-15 October (usual stock seasonal bear market ending).
WeMakeMoney cfetrader
Ok thanks
+1 Reply
cfetrader WeMakeMoney
Yes, this chart is fine. Particularly like the inner rising (thick blue) line, which was just retested from below (standard "goodbye" pattern).
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