WTI - Remains long term bullish, buy again after pullback
This is a multi-time frame analyses, sorry if first looks a bit confusing, but I think it is interesting to see how time frames support each other.
Charts are : Daily with Ichimoku, 4 Hrs with Ichimoku, 4 Hrs with Heiken Ashi candles and 9/26 EMA + 100 WMA.
Since my last post on WTI, the Long trade idea worked pretty well and quickly. However for swing traders it is recommended to take profit here, as 102 resistence may block the move fro some more days. The last Heiken Ashi candle (right panel - 4 Hrs time frame with HA candles) was a doji, and the last daily candle was a Hanging Man too, while 4 Hrs Slow Stoch turning down again. This means a possible pullback is due here.
But it leaves the big picture unchanged: the main trend is bullish, on both time frames. So be wise and use the pullback to look for Long entries again. I think in next few days price may get down to 99,65-100,10 levels. That is my buying zone now.
You may ask, ok, but what will be the new target from there? Again, let me explain my concept regarding price targets. When I see any trade setups, of course I check what a minimum target the trade can reach, to compare it to the initial stop loss, and to measure what is the initial risk/reward. Under 1:2 I am not really interested in the trade, or I may try but only with 0,5 unit. Normally I take the ones starting from 1:3 r/r. But when I am already in the trade, it is not important how high or how low the price will finally go into my direction, until it goes. So there is no pre-determined final price target, where I would close the trade. The two thing that matter when a trend started are:
A) Do I see any signs of the major trend weakening, or chance for a counter trend trade, like it happened in early March after the long bull run. If there is an overriding reason, I close the trade manually.
B) The trailing stop, on which I get out of the trade at "worse (after price moved enough, it will be in proft anyway).
We can call this a "lagging price target", or "Trailing Stop Exit" strategy. This has to be a part of any trend following system. Trend followers don't care about targets, they do care about the price action and the trend itself!
This is the only way your winners will take good care of your loosers even if you have only a 30 % winning hit ratio of your trade ideas.
Charts are : Daily with Ichimoku, 4 Hrs with Ichimoku, 4 Hrs with Heiken Ashi candles and 9/26 EMA + 100 WMA.
Since my last post on WTI, the Long trade idea worked pretty well and quickly. However for swing traders it is recommended to take profit here, as 102 resistence may block the move fro some more days. The last Heiken Ashi candle (right panel - 4 Hrs time frame with HA candles) was a doji, and the last daily candle was a Hanging Man too, while 4 Hrs Slow Stoch turning down again. This means a possible pullback is due here.
But it leaves the big picture unchanged: the main trend is bullish, on both time frames. So be wise and use the pullback to look for Long entries again. I think in next few days price may get down to 99,65-100,10 levels. That is my buying zone now.
You may ask, ok, but what will be the new target from there? Again, let me explain my concept regarding price targets. When I see any trade setups, of course I check what a minimum target the trade can reach, to compare it to the initial stop loss, and to measure what is the initial risk/reward. Under 1:2 I am not really interested in the trade, or I may try but only with 0,5 unit. Normally I take the ones starting from 1:3 r/r. But when I am already in the trade, it is not important how high or how low the price will finally go into my direction, until it goes. So there is no pre-determined final price target, where I would close the trade. The two thing that matter when a trend started are:
A) Do I see any signs of the major trend weakening, or chance for a counter trend trade, like it happened in early March after the long bull run. If there is an overriding reason, I close the trade manually.
B) The trailing stop, on which I get out of the trade at "worse (after price moved enough, it will be in proft anyway).
We can call this a "lagging price target", or "Trailing Stop Exit" strategy. This has to be a part of any trend following system. Trend followers don't care about targets, they do care about the price action and the trend itself!
This is the only way your winners will take good care of your loosers even if you have only a 30 % winning hit ratio of your trade ideas.