Yesterday's decline was erased completely. We printed a higher high again.
We are arriving to the point where my knowledge will not be enough to predict what is going to happen exactly.
The big question is :
1. will we have one more daily cycle - that would mean we go down into a DCL first around 42-43$ and then a final surge to 55-60$ ?
2. or we have only 2 daily cycles - we are in the second now already - so we entering into a slowing rally to 50-55$.
As you see the purple curve : we are slowing. I noticed some divergences on the MACD and on the RSI.
As we printed higher high again no stops were triggered. Bears gave up the fight. I don't see too many posts here in TV who are trying to short oil. The top pickers fat up with loosing money so they are trying to find another vehicles.
The 2015.09.10 intermediate high is a strong resistance. I'm sure we will take out this level in the following weeks but not now. We might tag it but no break immediately.
So after riding this bull for almost 3 months today I will close the rest of the oil positions. ( I will hold ERX as I think the stock markets are going to rally and ERX should also) I just wait for a pop up to 50$
Risk: with this step I'm risking to stay out of the rest of the rally to 55$, but I will have dry powder to reenter in a possible DCL at 42-43$ if there is a DCL in the following 6-7 trading days.
My advise is the same regarding shorts: never short a bull market in the middle of the intermediate cycle.
So it's still not the market to be short.
We are arriving to the point where my knowledge will not be enough to predict what is going to happen exactly.
The big question is :
1. will we have one more daily cycle - that would mean we go down into a DCL first around 42-43$ and then a final surge to 55-60$ ?
2. or we have only 2 daily cycles - we are in the second now already - so we entering into a slowing rally to 50-55$.
As you see the purple curve : we are slowing. I noticed some divergences on the MACD and on the RSI.
As we printed higher high again no stops were triggered. Bears gave up the fight. I don't see too many posts here in TV who are trying to short oil. The top pickers fat up with loosing money so they are trying to find another vehicles.
The 2015.09.10 intermediate high is a strong resistance. I'm sure we will take out this level in the following weeks but not now. We might tag it but no break immediately.
So after riding this bull for almost 3 months today I will close the rest of the oil positions. ( I will hold ERX as I think the stock markets are going to rally and ERX should also) I just wait for a pop up to 50$
Risk: with this step I'm risking to stay out of the rest of the rally to 55$, but I will have dry powder to reenter in a possible DCL at 42-43$ if there is a DCL in the following 6-7 trading days.
My advise is the same regarding shorts: never short a bull market in the middle of the intermediate cycle.
So it's still not the market to be short.
Comment:
The red arrow was missing on the first picture.
