Tag of the 50 EMA. This exponential moving average is a very important level. It was supporting the price during that never ending consolidation. If we turn down this will be the level where the decline starts. Today we tagged it and turning down from this level.
We have a problem in the volume though.
If the ICL occured at 47$ - I don't think so - the rally out of the ICL is pretty weak.
I highlighted by green arrows the rally out of the DCLs and the last ICL. You can see the difference.
The last 2-3 days' rally looks a manufactured move to me and I see internal weakness in the chart.
We had the high volume when oil was saved again on the 14th March. This high volume should occur when price had finished its decline and ready to start to move higher.
So the establishment is making the same mistake again:
if oil was left to fall below 42$ it would had rallied above 55$ by now. But they simply so scared of an oil decline that they're protecting tooth and nails their critical levels. This time this level is 47$.
Sooner or later the OPEC agreement will be broken. One or two of these players will start to sell oil. Maybe today maybe tomorrow.
We might not get the panic selling but the minimum we are going to get the tag of the 10 EMA on the daily chart and I'm quite sure the 200 SMA will be tested back again.
So I don't think we will be able to break to new highs in these circumstances.. Price will be stucked in a long consolidation between 47-52 for months.
The minimum I'm waiting for a testback of 47$ again. And the panic selling is still not out of the table yet...
I'm selling today again and I'm in full position now.
We have a problem in the volume though.
If the ICL occured at 47$ - I don't think so - the rally out of the ICL is pretty weak.
I highlighted by green arrows the rally out of the DCLs and the last ICL. You can see the difference.
The last 2-3 days' rally looks a manufactured move to me and I see internal weakness in the chart.
We had the high volume when oil was saved again on the 14th March. This high volume should occur when price had finished its decline and ready to start to move higher.
So the establishment is making the same mistake again:
if oil was left to fall below 42$ it would had rallied above 55$ by now. But they simply so scared of an oil decline that they're protecting tooth and nails their critical levels. This time this level is 47$.
Sooner or later the OPEC agreement will be broken. One or two of these players will start to sell oil. Maybe today maybe tomorrow.
We might not get the panic selling but the minimum we are going to get the tag of the 10 EMA on the daily chart and I'm quite sure the 200 SMA will be tested back again.
So I don't think we will be able to break to new highs in these circumstances.. Price will be stucked in a long consolidation between 47-52 for months.
The minimum I'm waiting for a testback of 47$ again. And the panic selling is still not out of the table yet...
I'm selling today again and I'm in full position now.