microtrends
Long

Oil End of 2014 Forecast

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
148 2 1
Oil             End of 2014 Forecast based on the uptrend which started in 2009 after the 2008 sell off.
Anyone trading the S&P500             during late 2007 and 2008 should remember the effects it had - spikes - when oil             news was announced... and the huge meltdown for transports... on the monthly chart we can see this period easily and make the MTAutoFib plot the high to low in a 100 period look back which captures those moments in time.
And allows us to project forwards the horizontal levels of support and resistance which still effect today's trading.
The current range and context of the market is set by those not so recent but no so far away events - so that we can see we are at just under a 61.8% retracement 103.19. The highest level since 2008 was set in 2011 at 114.8 which is a B point from point A in 2009 -point C took us back to 75 - and now point D is at 104.18. Oil             failed to reach point B in 2013 and sold off but support at the upward sloping lower trend line just above f50% - since then has contracted in terms of range and has tested and violated 61.8% but not held as yet... The Triangle pattern we can see from points B C D are bullish .

I would expect oil             to retest 61.8% and to find weekly support above it and so find the range to retest 112 - and it has 6 months to do that before now and 2015. The blue candles are on the chart are a projection of what might happen and things might look like. However looking the price cycles of shorter to longer bars that take place in oil             - the weekly range that can be easily 500ticks, it could only be 2 weeks from a retest. Congestion of prices going into the Apex of this triangle might provide the fuel for such a move.

If the move is towards the down side then we are look towards the f50% levels as support - or 61.8% as the support if we keep this uptrend going as it is into 2015.

I have also been assisted here by the MTAutoFib to show me likely retracement levels as well as extension...
In addition the MTHLevels - is set here to show peaks and trough levels of Support... and Resistance...

These indicators are available in Charts > Indicators > Market Place AddOns > MicroTrends
more details of the indicators can be found here: http://www.indicatorfactory.com/tradingview-indicators/
microtrends PRO
2 years ago
So with details of such a higher time frame view you can look for a market that is ripe for a move and so capitilize on this with an intraday entry technique... see related posts too
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microtrends PRO
2 years ago
MT Range Signals - Auto Fib Grid and Range Grid Trading Signals
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