microtrends

MT Trading System why we dont try to catch the falling kinfe

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
oil
66 0 0
oil
Note the uncertainty and emotion that occurs here - the Signals on the chart only appear 3 times - 2 longs and 1 short.. all winners... the 3rd one - is the one we are looking for.. the first two are too small to care about...for this commentary...

The reason we use the system this way and do not have signals at the other levels is it is very tricky... and spoils some really good trading... you are short in a lovely trade that see you with 200 to 300 ticks if only you would let it run... so why try to catch the falling knife? in case it goes and runs.. yes that's emotional..greed, fear of missing out.. why trade long at 76% and 100% ???

However practice shows most of the time that wont happen...it wont be a huge range every time.. However what does show a lot is that it is easier to trade with the direction of the market than to jump in front - however if you do that at pre-defined points where reversals are common if cuts down the amount you are trading... but if you don't how many times do you want to lose against the market? its a classic way to die... i see it a lot...

note that we are only showing signals from the F0% areas
and not at the reversal points - we use them for exiting points, trail stop points and targets... its a lot easier!
certainly f23, f50 , f75, f100 reverse a lot... this one toady might be a -f100% - the range is around 150%+ - also timing... but trading the reversal is a different game... and effects the first...one by cutting winners...and adding losses :-)

so that's why i have put some trades on and comments to show the catch the knife type of trade - versus the current one still short... on the chart... you get huge risk reward and limited trades per day.. its good for the brain.. not bad for the wallet...

so the point is don't think oh wow look at the amount of times it reverses... think i get in at the beginning and i hold it... i have pre-defined levels that are very accurate as they are based on stats and not bs.. and i can use them for exits and trails.... its that simple. .. those that use fear or greed - miss the signal or try to take the reversals ..and guess what? they don't do very good... Not unless there is some other reason to take the reversal...like a level retest...etc..

These indicators are available in Charts > Indicators > Market Place AddOns > MicroTrends
more details of the indicators can be found here: http://www.indicatorfactory.com/tradingview-indicators/
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