chartwatchers
Long

OIL - THE END OF BEGINNNING

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2385 19 38
8 months ago
In the last 2 months we were able to catch the bottom in gold             , oil             and now in natural gas             .
Gold             is now getting to the end of the rally's first phase. Oil             is now at the halfway of the first daily cycle.
And NatGas is just beginning...

First of all I would like to summarize an important thing.
We had a bottoming process in the metal sector, and now a bottoming process in the energy sector.
The bottoms we are printing will last for years. These opportunities are not coming every day. Not coming every week, nor every year. These possibilities are coming once or twice in a decade.

I'm watching famous "TOP" guys here with thousands of followers who are shorting gold             , oil             , commodities , stock market based on patterns. 2016 will not be the year of shorts. If you are lucky you can make some money , but most of the time you will lose money. And if you short oil             now when all the powers and governments of the world are working on raising the oil             price you will lose all your money from your account.

The energy sector will have lots of opportunities this year. I think that oil             will rally to the 50-60 zone this year and will be in a range there for a few months. So if you want to trade this sector there are the following possibilities:
Buy oil             CFD             ( US CRUDE MAY 2016)
Buy Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLE             )
Buy Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX)
or buy individual shares like OAS             etc.
When oil             arrives to the range the individual oil             company shares will still rally for months.

So in oil             we are now in the 1st daily cycle. We have 2-4 more weeks to run. It's hard to tell where will it top. I think we will slice through the 200 EMA (with 2-3 days of lagging at the 200 EMA) and a top is froming between last years November 3 and November 21 tops. (44 and 48$) After that we go to the 1st daily cycle low: we migh test back the breakout at 34.31 or just the pullback level at 36.( Maybe only the 50 EMA) Then the 2nd daily cycle will start and it ends between 56-60$.

So for the ones has not entered yet I suggest to wait for the next daily cycle low at the middle or end of April.
If you just day trade you can go for long even from here because we will test the 200 EMA for sure.
Or try to buy individual oil             stocks or ERX.
I will post ERX and individual stocks strategies also.

Good trading!
8 months ago
Comment: Though we printed a topping candlestick on Friday I think it's just a trap to fleece shorts.
Oil's daily cycle usually running for 38-48 days. We were on day 26 on Friday.
Oil has minimum 12 maximum 22 days to run till the first daily cycle tops.
8 months ago
Comment: I think we had the chance on 15.03 to test back 35 (the breakout level) but we couldn't do that : 100 EMA just stopped the price from falling.
We reached an important level at 41, we were also close to the 200 EMA. It was Friday and a lot of people took profit before the weekend. And a lot of shorts were preparing for 41 to short the price. They have activated the shorts also..
I think we are just waiting for the 10 EMA to catch up the price , pulling more shorts in - while we are here at 40-41- then a break above the 200 EMA and only above the 200 EMA will the 1st daily cycle top.I think short is a big risk now. You never know when price is running up to 55...
Even selling the long position at 44-48 is risky... What if there is no pullback?
You wont be able to get back...
8 months ago
Comment: Today is the typical example why one should not short oil.
+4,5% in the open. If you opened your short at the exact top you are now in zero.
The stopsabove 41.2 will move the price up to 42 by the morning...
Nice forecast! I'm not sureste though if the governments are indeed fighting for higher oil prices... The fight for the inflation and oil for me may be a consequence, not a cause. Although, if oil would be on 50s now,I dont think many would argue =)
Reply
tbuckle PRO
8 months ago
After today's price action do you think we go up Sunday/Monday? or has the downside started? Also regarding the 200 MA how do we know if we should go by USOIL or CL and which contract? Thanks for your help.
Reply
dericksim
8 months ago
I have my reservations on the too bullish outlook. for any market to turn around, the moving averages need to be in line. Bull=ema5,10,20,50,100,200, bear=200,100,50,20,10. with the moving averages so far apart, turning them around will be hard. market needs to consolidate between 30-40 for a while. asking for anything more than that, we will have to wait till july onwards. consolidation is necessary for all the moving averages to converge together. (stocks, shares, commodities; even treasuries(packaged debt) everything has to obey this pattern due to the enormous amount of back testing done). do not forget about sell in may and go away.....
Reply
chartwatchers PRO dericksim
8 months ago
Yes. We will have intermediate declines. Big ones. One is coming in gold in the following 2 months (50-100$). One in oil during the summer (10$). Stocks also in the summer and that could correspond with that "sell in May.." saying.
s:
We are in a currency war everybody is printing money (Japan,FED, ECBetc..) , every government wants to make its currency weaker to help their exportandfigh against deflation. These "very wise" people never knew their limits. If they do something they do it in big. Sothe world is going to have a terrible inflation and the printed money is going into stocks and commodities.
So mark my words :if you go long in the following 2 years - in anything (stocks, gold, copper, uranium, natural gas, oil, gold miner shares, oil shares)- you will be reach. If you short you will lose everything. Because after 3 years the printed money will be worthless.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
So mark my words :if you go long in the following 2 years - in anything (stocks, gold, copper, uranium, natural gas, oil, gold miner shares, oil shares)- you will be rich. If you short you will lose everything. Because after 3 years the printed money will be worthless.
+2 Reply
Michael918 chartwatchers
8 months ago
Hi, chartwatchers. Just to clarify, from now then in 2years, everything will be bull market? Even the stocks? I thought the stock may experience some recession later this year. It won't happen?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Michael918
8 months ago
BOJ, FED, ECB, China is printing money. Where do you think it's going to go? Real estate? Bonds? No, it's going to the Stocks Exchange. They are going to blow a beautiful balloon in the following 2-3 years. In the meanwhile money is also going to the commodities which is not an aim but they can't do anything with that, also they are afraid of deflation so they let the commodities go up. That has started already. All the commodities are on the way up. Commodities are breaking multi year trend lines. While technician traders are waiting for a significant breakout we are going to run so high that it will be hard to enter. When the stock balloon bursts more money will go to commodities especially to gold.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
The short traders will make a big help for us on this way up. We can't help those people. When they realize what is happening we are going to be on halfway to the top. Look at gold. It's simply couldn't fall for almost 3 months... Still a lot of people is thinking it's just a bear market rally and we are heading to 1000 soon.
Reply
johnmknox
8 months ago
Oil is going to head lower. It is difficult for me to see how it will be able to stay at these prices.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO johnmknox
8 months ago
Don't watch the fundamentals. Just makes you confused.
Reply
dericksim
8 months ago
Stocks are just in a sideways market to go lower, oil will have a stronger rebound as it has dropped too much. The strong rebound will kill off stocks as auntie yellen will be forced to increase rates
Reply
chartwatchers PRO dericksim
8 months ago
I don't understand why would the oil rebound kill off stocks. That is making a strong rally in oil stocks.
And Yellen is forced to increase the rates because she is preparing for the next recession in 2020-2022.
USA will be the only one nation who will be able to cut the rates.
Reply
I think we had the chance on 15.03 to test back 35 (the breakout level) but we couldn't do that : 100 EMA just stopped the price from falling.
We reached an important level at 41, we were also close to the 200 EMA. It was Friday and a lot of people took profit before the weekend. And a lot of shorts were preparing for 41 to short the price. They have activated the shorts also..
I think we are just waiting for the 10 EMA to catch up the price , pulling more shorts in - while we are here at 40-41- then a break above the 200 EMA and only above the 200 EMA will the 1st daily cycle top.I think short is a big risk now. You never know when price is running up to 55...
Even selling the long position at 44-48 is risky... What if there is no pullback?
You wont be able to get back...
Reply
tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
So you think we don't go lower than around 40 (CL price?) and then start moving up again?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO tbuckle
8 months ago
Yes. The first place we can go down to the daily cycle low is the 200 EMA. And as I'm watching today's gap opening the Friday shorts will stop out in the night and push up price to 42 by tomorrow.
Reply
tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
what price do yo have as the 200 EMA 41?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO tbuckle
8 months ago
now 41.97
Reply
tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
I'm confused. Sorry. Do you think we go up now to 41.97 or first push down to the 41 or 40?. Sorry.
Reply
tbuckle PRO
8 months ago
I don't understand your comment about oil being +4.5 in the open. Oil only looks to be up due to the roll over of the new contract and is actually down. ??
Reply
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