chartwatchers
Long

OIL - THE END OF BEGINNNING

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2409 19 40
In the last 2 months we were able to catch the bottom in gold             , oil             and now in natural gas             .
Gold             is now getting to the end of the rally's first phase. Oil             is now at the halfway of the first daily cycle.
And NatGas is just beginning...

First of all I would like to summarize an important thing.
We had a bottoming process in the metal sector, and now a bottoming process in the energy sector.
The bottoms we are printing will last for years. These opportunities are not coming every day. Not coming every week, nor every year. These possibilities are coming once or twice in a decade.

I'm watching famous "TOP" guys here with thousands of followers who are shorting gold             , oil             , commodities , stock market based on patterns. 2016 will not be the year of shorts. If you are lucky you can make some money , but most of the time you will lose money. And if you short oil             now when all the powers and governments of the world are working on raising the oil             price you will lose all your money from your account.

The energy sector will have lots of opportunities this year. I think that oil             will rally to the 50-60 zone this year and will be in a range there for a few months. So if you want to trade this sector there are the following possibilities:
Buy oil             CFD             ( US CRUDE MAY 2016)
Buy Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLE             )
Buy Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX)
or buy individual shares like OAS             etc.
When oil             arrives to the range the individual oil             company shares will still rally for months.

So in oil             we are now in the 1st daily cycle. We have 2-4 more weeks to run. It's hard to tell where will it top. I think we will slice through the 200 EMA (with 2-3 days of lagging at the 200 EMA ) and a top is froming between last years November 3 and November 21 tops. ( 44             and 48$) After that we go to the 1st daily cycle low: we migh test back the breakout at 34.31 or just the pullback level at 36.( Maybe only the 50 EMA ) Then the 2nd daily cycle will start and it ends between 56-60$.

So for the ones has not entered yet I suggest to wait for the next daily cycle low at the middle or end of April             .
If you just day trade you can go for long even from here because we will test the 200 EMA for sure.
Or try to buy individual oil             stocks or ERX.
I will post ERX and individual stocks strategies also.

Good trading!
Comment: Though we printed a topping candlestick on Friday I think it's just a trap to fleece shorts.
Oil's daily cycle usually running for 38-48 days. We were on day 26 on Friday.
Oil has minimum 12 maximum 22 days to run till the first daily cycle tops.
Comment: I think we had the chance on 15.03 to test back 35 (the breakout level) but we couldn't do that : 100 EMA just stopped the price from falling.
We reached an important level at 41, we were also close to the 200 EMA. It was Friday and a lot of people took profit before the weekend. And a lot of shorts were preparing for 41 to short the price. They have activated the shorts also..
I think we are just waiting for the 10 EMA to catch up the price , pulling more shorts in - while we are here at 40-41- then a break above the 200 EMA and only above the 200 EMA will the 1st daily cycle top.I think short is a big risk now. You never know when price is running up to 55...
Even selling the long position at 44-48 is risky... What if there is no pullback?
You wont be able to get back...
Comment: Today is the typical example why one should not short oil.
+4,5% in the open. If you opened your short at the exact top you are now in zero.
The stopsabove 41.2 will move the price up to 42 by the morning...
I don't understand your comment about oil being +4.5 in the open. Oil only looks to be up due to the roll over of the new contract and is actually down. ??
Reply
I think we had the chance on 15.03 to test back 35 (the breakout level) but we couldn't do that : 100 EMA just stopped the price from falling.
We reached an important level at 41, we were also close to the 200 EMA. It was Friday and a lot of people took profit before the weekend. And a lot of shorts were preparing for 41 to short the price. They have activated the shorts also..
I think we are just waiting for the 10 EMA to catch up the price , pulling more shorts in - while we are here at 40-41- then a break above the 200 EMA and only above the 200 EMA will the 1st daily cycle top.I think short is a big risk now. You never know when price is running up to 55...
Even selling the long position at 44-48 is risky... What if there is no pullback?
You wont be able to get back...
Reply
tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
So you think we don't go lower than around 40 (CL price?) and then start moving up again?
Reply
Yes. The first place we can go down to the daily cycle low is the 200 EMA. And as I'm watching today's gap opening the Friday shorts will stop out in the night and push up price to 42 by tomorrow.
Reply
tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
what price do yo have as the 200 EMA 41?
Reply
now 41.97
Reply
tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
I'm confused. Sorry. Do you think we go up now to 41.97 or first push down to the 41 or 40?. Sorry.
Reply
Stocks are just in a sideways market to go lower, oil will have a stronger rebound as it has dropped too much. The strong rebound will kill off stocks as auntie yellen will be forced to increase rates
Reply
I don't understand why would the oil rebound kill off stocks. That is making a strong rally in oil stocks.
And Yellen is forced to increase the rates because she is preparing for the next recession in 2020-2022.
USA will be the only one nation who will be able to cut the rates.
Reply
Oil is going to head lower. It is difficult for me to see how it will be able to stay at these prices.
Reply
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