Look for oil to move to 44.18 tomorrow and then pause.

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
51 0 1
I'm still bearish on oil             , and expect to see a full 100% retracement of March's move higher. Moveover, nothing has changed on a fundamental basis that doesn't support new lows below 42.

That said, there's a resistance zone b/w 44.18 and 43.76 and there's been a fairly consistent pattern in the duration of consecutive down days. Since 6/24, which marked the last high of the May/June consolidation, we've seen 4 instances of 4 down days in a row, followed by an up day. Tomorrow would mark the 4th consecutive down day. All things considered, the move lower in oil             has been swift and significant. Why not be prepared to back off the short and look for a higher point to re-enter the short? I'm looking for a 44.18ish print tomorrow to cover 2/3 of my short. From there I'll watch for a bounce to add to my short.
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