chartwatchers
Long

OIL - Surprise to the upside?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2945 16 56
2 months ago
We have still 2-3 more weeks in this daily cycle (maybe 4-5 as this half cycle low was quite deep).
I was watching XLE             and ERX today. Both of them closed on daily maximum with high volume . ERX is just 1$ from the new highs.
Smartmoney is buying ERX and XLE             . They are positioning for the breakout from the consolidation.
Oil             is still suffering at the trendline. Does smartmoney know something what we and oil             doesn't?
I would say : yes.
I'm waiting for a positive surprise here in oil             . A surprise to the upside. Something what ERX and XLE             ( and a lot of idividual shares) are pricing in.
Today we tested back the trendline again. The falling dollar helped a lot for oil             to recover.

I'll be watching very carefully the HCL             low at 43$. We have no business below 43$.
If crude goes below 43$ with the falling ERX and XLE             I will get out of the position.
2 months ago
Comment: Surprise to the upside.
2 months ago
Comment: ERX broke out also.
I told you : smartmoney knew this coming. They were collecting these shares whole this week and last week.
snapshot
Nightstar
2 months ago
Agree 100% -- that drop below $45 is very suspicious but ERX looking rather strong today.. Hopefully this is THE breakout, Lol! No more teasing.
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I think, ERX and stocks were just pricing in yesterday's gain in oil that they skipped due to holiday. Tomorrow should tell the story. I don't believe in Russia Saudi agreement will fly. That is the only reason oil went up. Even if they freeze at these record high levels US production will pickup and we will hear more rigs counts in US. I think WTI is interesting at 35 or less.
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traderzaius
2 months ago
wait for the inventory reports... bearish builds the past few weeks, it will be hard to find enough oil bulls to take out of the possible left translated cycle
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NihalCassim
2 months ago
do you think it can linger on between 43 and 45 for a week? or is price jump expected to be soon even though that RSI is not oversold? the jump certainly seems to be big and sudden just as in gold and many of the currencies.
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bertcoin PRO
2 months ago
Yes - nice jump in UWTI today too. Combined with ERX, back to even. Very good call Arpi! Kept me from stopping out with a loss. Thank you!
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Parabolica
2 months ago
Perfect!
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Fullmoon Parabolica
2 months ago
ride the bull to the moon :)
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Parabolica Fullmoon
2 months ago
Depends on the timeframe you trade... :)
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Fullmoon
2 months ago
just perfect
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Ta-Trade
2 months ago
Nice one m8
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oilyprata
2 months ago
You are a legend Arpi!
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Vagrant361
2 months ago
Nice call! I look forward to your next post Arpi!
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watsonzou26
2 months ago
You are great, master.
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archie123
2 months ago
Looking at the daily chart for yesterday there was a big sell around 3pm EST. Wondering if they knew something the rest of us did not....
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Vishalpanchal84
2 months ago
Where is up oil??what level
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ma.sanjuy Vishalpanchal84
2 months ago
is the market heading for a oil price crash !! seems so !! i would not be surprised to see $38 range soon hitting the charts. I am long from $46 onwards :(
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