OIL - Houston we are going down

TVC:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
4648 36 68
We are going down the question is how far we are going in this drop.
In my previous OIL             - False breakout post I mentioned this: "So this time we are not just going to tag the bottom of the range at 49.13$ but we are going to break it down and heading to the 50 EMA (48$). "
Today we broke down from the green range.
My first target was the 50 EMA at 48$. We are getting close to that level.
I think all of us underestimated the possible impacts of the US elections. I checked the last 2 elections and I noticed that S&P 500             was falling before every elections ( 1-2 weeks of fall).
If stocks are going down hard in the next 2 weeks oil             might not stop at the 50 EMA it could be testing the green trendline . This oil             cycle should be a longer cycle - when my webpage finally will be ready I will explain there how the length of oil             cycles are changing - so we have the time for a deeper HCL             correction. We also might tag the 100 or the 200 EMA before finishing this decline.

I will set this idea as a short idea though we might have only 1$ drop from here to 48$. For those who are still short with me for the last 8 days I suggest to take some profit around 48$ and ride the possible drop to the trendline with tight stop. I'M going to do the same.
Comment: As we almost entered at the exact top with this short today Im going to take profit on HALF OF THE POSITION (47.39$) as we sliced through the 50 EMA. It seems we will tag the trendline but in a bull market when you go short you mustn't sit into the position. Surprises are coming to the upside...
Comment: With the rest of the position Im going to wait to tag the trendline.
Comment: We are getting close enough to the 100 EMA on the daily chart.
Closing half of the rest of the position. We have now the 25% of the original position.
Comment: This decline is getting too serious..
I have a feeling that we are heading down to the daily cycle low and it's not a half cycle low?!
In this case we could be in the first daily cycle in this intermediate cycle.
In this case we might even tag 42$.
Comment: So my suggestion is do not try to open any longs right now....
Comment: Oil new post is coming only after market close today...
Comment: Closing the rest of the position (25%) at 45.92$.
We broken the trendline and we are very close to my last target at the 100 EMA.
Waiting for a long entry.
Comment: Mistyped : ... we are very close to my last target at the 200 EMA...
Trade closed manually
Comment: I started to buy oil a few minutes ago.
Small amounts but we are tagging the 200 SMA and I don't want to miss this opportunity.
This is a risky trade so just small position: 10-15% margin impact maximum...
Posting in a few minutes.
Well done , Master Arpi.
watsonzou26 watsonzou26
OPEC is learning FED using mouth lifting oil price.
+2 Reply
Easiest short since NAT. BUT, OPEC can manipulate this over the weekend. Should be a fun Monday nonetheless.
Not trading yet. However, the idea:

Tj Tj
Ehi! Nice idea, look at mine!

Tj lftrading
SL should be above the highest peak. Like chartwatchers forexample put at 52.1. Can make it tighter if want but above the highest peak.
If current SL will be enough - it's a pure luck - not a strategy. They will break it down, then pull back up to eat SLs like in the chart, then drop to your target area - that's how retailers emotions played for big money.
+1 Reply
Why did you change your mind from around $48 to $47.39?
I didn't set take profit and the decline was too fast. If you took profit at 48 its still good I think...
GoGreen chartwatchers
I am not saying it is good or bad. Most of us are learning from you that's why I wanted to know the reason :)
im curious...what surprises to the upside are you talking about?
mkt looks very weak now.
I got in the Short at 51. At 47.20 I jumped out of my shorts. Now I have no shorts on.
great job! are you thinking to open buy positions after you close your shorts?
Definetely. But I think we have to wait out the elections.
We might have some chaos now in the following weeks
shawn.ctech chartwatchers
I agree. We will test the $42 level right before the next OPEC meeting then speculation will drive prices higher to Mid December.
Arpil.. Thanks for your updates. Awaiting for your further updates - I.e. The one after yesterday market close.
+1 Reply
paletz cowboy
Yeah, this last bid bag seems pretty climactic to me too. Let's just watch the follow-though.
paletz paletz
Sorry, misprinted. * big bar
No mans land atm. I'm using 48 for direction,
Oil is moving between 50 & 100 MA. If it break 100 then it will go down and vice versa. Waiting for your opinion.
Is the bottom upward trend line going to support here???? bouncing off it around $46.50, volume is high this morning. but still think $42-$44 very likely;
Hey, Nice analysis as always, however broken the trend line? what is the box represent?
IMHO ther's room to cross the 100MA 1D given OPEC issues

Possible but we made nice money shorting a bull market.
I don't want to be too greedy and drop it back.
+3 Reply
4family chartwatchers
Went long this am - regretting it, is it best to get out before US open, where do you see short term support resistance, and has it crossed 100 DMA lows yet. I am newish and not taken your advice several times (shorting when up, going long when down); and have heavy losses. Many thanks for sharing your expertise, am tempted to cut all loses and just go long gold.
tks Arpil for yr latest advise. Pl do keep us posted of your thoughts and plans.
+1 Reply
Your analysis is great ! I still think MA200 will be the turning point around 44.50 if we ever reach to that price and then it will be shooting star to 52 while Obama will leave the office next week.

+1 Reply
USSRandolph king24253
A reminder, the President is not leaving office next week... In January.
+1 Reply
Chartwatchers. My compliments to you on your chart from 5 days ago. It looks like we have a small reversal from 44.98 and it falls right in the area you have identified. My I ask about your technique to call the bottom at 47-44.5? Thanks & great job. Looking forward for new Oil charts!
4family Mstan1984
Is this the bottom 44.05?
ironmask 4family
wow, already 43.82... is there no end to this decline? Bought in too early at 45.52... Any thoughts when it would make sense to double up on my position?
ironmask ironmask
btw, my position is a small one. I also heard that if trump wins then oil could be on its way up? Anyone want to confirm this?
I am buying some UWTI here, but very slowly. Just got filled at 17.50. I also have a USO Nov 18 10.00 puts that I bought last week, so this allows me to take a little risk as I am only using the profits from the options to buy UWTI.
Have started buying long here as well. 200 SMA, Support around $43, and trend from April and August lows should provide a nice long opportunity. Thanks for the update.
United States
United Kingdom
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out