chartwatchers
Short

OIL - Houston we are going down

TVC:USOIL   WTI Crude Oil
4649 36 68
We are going down the question is how far we are going in this drop.
In my previous OIL             - False breakout post I mentioned this: "So this time we are not just going to tag the bottom of the range at 49.13$ but we are going to break it down and heading to the 50 EMA (48$). "
Today we broke down from the green range.
My first target was the 50 EMA at 48$. We are getting close to that level.
I think all of us underestimated the possible impacts of the US elections. I checked the last 2 elections and I noticed that S&P 500             was falling before every elections ( 1-2 weeks of fall).
If stocks are going down hard in the next 2 weeks oil             might not stop at the 50 EMA it could be testing the green trendline . This oil             cycle should be a longer cycle - when my webpage finally will be ready I will explain there how the length of oil             cycles are changing - so we have the time for a deeper HCL             correction. We also might tag the 100 or the 200 EMA before finishing this decline.

I will set this idea as a short idea though we might have only 1$ drop from here to 48$. For those who are still short with me for the last 8 days I suggest to take some profit around 48$ and ride the possible drop to the trendline with tight stop. I'M going to do the same.
Comment: As we almost entered at the exact top with this short today Im going to take profit on HALF OF THE POSITION (47.39$) as we sliced through the 50 EMA. It seems we will tag the trendline but in a bull market when you go short you mustn't sit into the position. Surprises are coming to the upside...
Comment: With the rest of the position Im going to wait to tag the trendline.
Comment: We are getting close enough to the 100 EMA on the daily chart.
Closing half of the rest of the position. We have now the 25% of the original position.
Comment: This decline is getting too serious..
I have a feeling that we are heading down to the daily cycle low and it's not a half cycle low?!
In this case we could be in the first daily cycle in this intermediate cycle.
In this case we might even tag 42$.
Comment: So my suggestion is do not try to open any longs right now....
Comment: Oil new post is coming only after market close today...
Comment: Closing the rest of the position (25%) at 45.92$.
We broken the trendline and we are very close to my last target at the 100 EMA.
Waiting for a long entry.
snapshot
Comment: Mistyped : ... we are very close to my last target at the 200 EMA...
Trade closed manually
Comment: I started to buy oil a few minutes ago.
Small amounts but we are tagging the 200 SMA and I don't want to miss this opportunity.
This is a risky trade so just small position: 10-15% margin impact maximum...
Posting in a few minutes.
Have started buying long here as well. 200 SMA, Support around $43, and trend from April and August lows should provide a nice long opportunity. Thanks for the update.
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I am buying some UWTI here, but very slowly. Just got filled at 17.50. I also have a USO Nov 18 10.00 puts that I bought last week, so this allows me to take a little risk as I am only using the profits from the options to buy UWTI.
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Chartwatchers. My compliments to you on your chart from 5 days ago. It looks like we have a small reversal from 44.98 and it falls right in the area you have identified. My I ask about your technique to call the bottom at 47-44.5? Thanks & great job. Looking forward for new Oil charts!
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4family Mstan1984
Is this the bottom 44.05?
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ironmask 4family
wow, already 43.82... is there no end to this decline? Bought in too early at 45.52... Any thoughts when it would make sense to double up on my position?
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ironmask ironmask
btw, my position is a small one. I also heard that if trump wins then oil could be on its way up? Anyone want to confirm this?
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Your analysis is great ! I still think MA200 will be the turning point around 44.50 if we ever reach to that price and then it will be shooting star to 52 while Obama will leave the office next week.

+1 Reply
USSRandolph king24253
A reminder, the President is not leaving office next week... In January.
+1 Reply
tks Arpil for yr latest advise. Pl do keep us posted of your thoughts and plans.
+1 Reply
IMHO ther's room to cross the 100MA 1D given OPEC issues
snapshot

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