In my previous OIL - False breakout post I mentioned this: "So this time we are not just going to tag the bottom of the range at 49.13$ but we are going to break it down and heading to the 50 (48$). "
Today we broke down from the green range.
My first target was the 50 at 48$. We are getting close to that level.
I think all of us underestimated the possible impacts of the US elections. I checked the last 2 elections and I noticed that S&P 500 was falling before every elections ( 1-2 weeks of fall).
If stocks are going down hard in the next 2 weeks oil might not stop at the 50 it could be testing the green . This oil cycle should be a longer cycle - when my webpage finally will be ready I will explain there how the length of oil cycles are changing - so we have the time for a deeper HCL correction. We also might tag the 100 or the 200 before finishing this decline.
I will set this idea as a short idea though we might have only 1$ drop from here to 48$. For those who are still short with me for the last 8 days I suggest to take some profit around 48$ and ride the possible drop to the with tight stop. I'M going to do the same.
Closing half of the rest of the position. We have now the 25% of the original position.
I have a feeling that we are heading down to the daily cycle low and it's not a half cycle low?!
In this case we could be in the first daily cycle in this intermediate cycle.
In this case we might even tag 42$.
We broken the trendline and we are very close to my last target at the 100 EMA.
Waiting for a long entry.
Small amounts but we are tagging the 200 SMA and I don't want to miss this opportunity.
This is a risky trade so just small position: 10-15% margin impact maximum...
Posting in a few minutes.
If current SL will be enough - it's a pure luck - not a strategy. They will break it down, then pull back up to eat SLs like in the chart, then drop to your target area - that's how retailers emotions played for big money.