Technician

Is the Rally in Oil Sustainable ?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
289 9 1
Interesting correlation between copper             and WTI Crude oil             illustrated on chart, as copper             has been a good leading indicator or crude in most of cases. More details at
WTI Crude Oil & Copper Making Sense of Correlations


As oil             rallies copper             remains weak and not confirming, and that makes me skeptical about this rally in oil             prices, unless copper             starts to pick up and rally breaking the recent range bound.

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Sforex PRO
2 years ago
Simply, high demand due to bad weather, low oil reserve, and inflation cause rally in Oil.
Reply
Technician TOP Sforex
2 years ago
"Bad Weather" "low oil supply" = Temporary Reasons.
"Inflation" = I am not sure what inflation are hinting? Since Global economies are facing downside Inflation risks
Reply
Sforex PRO Technician
2 years ago
I am talking about short term to medium term.

About inflation, LET IT BE. Low Interest Rate and Stimulus package one day trigger for inflation, the problem is TIME.
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Technician TOP Sforex
2 years ago
"Bad Weather" "low oil supply" = Temporary Reasons.

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Technician TOP Technician
2 years ago
"About inflation, LET IT BE. Low Interest Rate and Stimulus package one day trigger for inflation"
I think this is irrelevant,
Low Interest Rate and Stimulus package have been here for five years now
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Sforex PRO Technician
2 years ago
I am talking about the effect of low interest rate and stimulus : gradually, it will effect on commodity price.
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Technician TOP Sforex
2 years ago
Low Interest Rate and Stimulus package have been here for more than five years, surprisingly gold fell to multi-year lows,and commodity space in general under heavy pressure. Meantime, no real indication for a rise in inflation. Japan and the euro zone is fighting deflation actually, while U.S. inflation figures are well below medium term targets. So markets aren't anticipating inflation and accordingly wont discount this on oil prices.
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Sforex PRO Technician
2 years ago
You are talking about USoil, I dont mention Japan or EZ.

Secondly, the CPI of US now 1.5% , near 2% target. FED decided to unwind the QE3 due to the inflation could be rally in the future.

About Gold, Gold falls down because when FED unwinds the QE, less dollar is injected to market, dollar is stronger, gold is anti-dollar, so gold fell down as a result.

Inflation is the only reason. The main reason for the rally of oil recent weeks are bad weather + oi reserve.

The weather of North America is very extreme cold, so the gas using rises up, oil and gas increase as a result.

The oil supply of the world is to the limit, cannot product more . Oil reserve falls down is absolute.
Reply
Technician TOP Sforex
2 years ago
"You are talking about USoil, I don't mention Japan or EZ." : !! Are u serious? Oil is a global market.

"Secondly, the CPI of US now 1.5% , near 2% target. FED decided to unwind the QE3 due to the inflation could be rally in the future" :did the fed say that, if yes please direct me to it? by the way the fed targets 2% for price index for personal consumption expenditures, not the CPI.

For the Last three points again = Temporary Reasons.
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