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US oil             is in a somewhat complex pattern because the patterns of lesser degree don't line up for a clear move.
My bigger picture hasn't changed yet and although not many would agree with me I'll consider that scenario as very likely until proven otherwise. This is based on the fact that I believe that Oil             needs to correct the manipulation we saw during the QE's in the Western Economies.
If you want to trade correlation keep in mind that the hardest correlation to trade is Dollar against any other major asset class. People want to see correlation to convince themselves of a good trade. However there are too many factors influencing the Dollar to call it a clear correlation but more importantly the lag in correlation might hurt your account big time before the possible correlation actually kicks in.
So if you want to use correlation for commodities you should focus on Commodities vs Bonds. There is a reason for that but I won't get into details here.

That being said, I focus on inter market analysis because this explains a big deal of the market, it is a lot of work and not many really understand it but this is the way to understand what's going on. I mentioned before it is not about the news, people interpreted the news the way they feel like (emotions in terms of expectations of what they consider good or bad). Besides most data is manipulated and the way we measure data has changed many times over the years because otherwise we would get scared about what's going on in the Global economy.

So if I post a chart it is because a potential trade is setting up, now and then I post a bigger picture view which you can try to understand and try to rationalize. However trading bigger picture with leverage means you need a very big account. Using it as context however might help a trader.

So back to the charts, for Oil             I see too many 3 wave patterns of lesser degree to come up with a high probability trade. I can ignore all the guidelines and start counting patterns as 5's but I wouldn't invest my own money or my clients money in those set-ups so why would I post it here?
Therefore I haven't been trading Oil             since the last succesfull short.
Today I think we might see at least a short term sell trade which might present itself soon as shown on the 1 hour time frame.

However you need to manage this potential short closely because wave B in Blue 'shown on the 4 hour chart' might shift to the right in the shape of an expanding corrective pattern. Many traders are looking to buy Oil             and I can understand why but I can also tell you that expanding corrective patterns are the hardest to trade and result in many more losses than any other pattern. This is because traders get fooled by thinking to trade the next trend but in fact are still trading a correction. That's why I stay aside, because the 3 wave patterns of lesser degree are a warning to me.
Let's be clear; I'm not saying it has to go one way or the other, I'm trying to explain why I'm simply not convinced yet. As a trader you can basically trade whatever you like so use that in your advantage and look for the way of least resistance. I don't need to be a hero by being right all the time. I'm perfectly fine by saying 'I have no clear bias, I have no idea, I have no set-up worth trading for that instrument, because if the set-up isn't showing me a probability of more than 85% I won't trade it.

So use my analysis in your advantage and I wish you all a great trading week ahead.
Comment: Oil reached the projected reversal zone, I will be watching for at least a correction lower.
Comment: USOil, trade the recent impulse by means of consolidation/continuation. If price reverses wait for bear flag and look for sell.
Correction scenario, expanded flat for wave (B)

Impulse scenario
Hey Tim.. what is your view regarding the last bullish impulse? What do you see in terms of structure/next resistance level?

TimStuyts jbourgault
I will update two possible scenario's both bullish and bearish which I consider relevant. My long term view might get invalidated for now (next 12 months) in terms of a test of the lows at 25. But it is not invalidated yet.
thanks Tim
+2 Reply
Comment removed
It's important to be malleable to market conditions!
+1 Reply
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