Oil and Copper Diverging= Monitoring for A New Short Oppurtunity

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
322 11 3
My prior attempt to short oil             @ wasn't successful, however that doesn't prove the failure of analysis. at least so far, its only the trade wasn't taken at the right time i believe. Accordingly, i look for a new lower time frame bearish signal, through a trend line break or horizontal support break to short oil             once again, i will keep u posted with update. Check text below for further analysis

Crude is rising, meantime, copper             is under heavy pressure. In a previous post I discussed how the two commodities are positively correlated to a large degree ( ), and in most cases copper             lead oil             prices. Having that said, I am monitoring carefully for a potential oil             short copper             broke below a key support at 3.27 and heading lower, on the other hand crude is testing its falling trend line .

Thanks For Reading and Best of luck for All.
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Do you enter the seasonal tendencies of markets into your trade planning
as Oil is now in it's strongest (bullish) seasonal tendencies of the year
from Feb into March. ???
I was bearish too in oil until I could count 5 waves up: now looking for an extension
or 3 correctives before another up side to enter long.
Anyway, do you put much weight on seasonal history ?
Technician dojitrader
not really, i really don't it give a big weight, as there are lots of occasions where crude fell during January or February, So as long as there are exceptions to the rule, then i wouldn't give it that much attention, specially that i believe things will be reflected on charts at the end of the day.
blackdog Technician
I agree 100% with the Technician, "things will be reflected on the charts at the end of the day". There are fundamental traders, seasonal traders but like they say at the end of the day "you can hide the elephants" everything will be reflected on the charts.
Even if this divergence can be "tricky" and pan out on the opposite way....I will agree cause of the volume and trend line on the OIL chart.....
blackdog blackdog
good observation
Thanks blackdog, i think ur right that this might play the opposite way and copper starts to rally, but in most cases copper leads and oil lags. That is why it is necessary to wait for a bearish setup on crude over the lower time intervals, to increase the chances of success. But anyways, at the end of the day, trading is speculation on high probability trades :), which might and might not work.
The short bets in oil at an historic high,looking at the future backwardation most investors will be aiming for 85. The geopolitical picture is getting more nasty by the day with oil producing areas flaring up. Nigeria could soon see a rise in oil related violence supporting the current oil price.
and that what would make this trade more attractive if oil extends the rally, as the dump will be more severe.
We seem to be charting the same here....hope we are right. My only concern is the hammer on the 4 hour chart but i'm sure the longer term trend takes precedence and weight.
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