Fundamental & Technical analysis on USOIL
May 20th 2024
Fundamental: Were seeing a up tick in Non-comm Long and Short positions being held. Shorts are increasing at a faster pace. The Net positions is positive and holding steady.
Commercial (Hedgers) short positions is increasing significantly quicker then Longs, Net position is negative and decreasing/holding.
Technical: I'm expecting to see consolidation for the coming week/s between 78-81 with price action making a lower high causing a fake EMA cross over to the upside and setting its self up for more down side.
Entry Criteria: For me to consider a entry i have to keep seeing Short positions increase for both Non-comm and Comm in the coming weeks as well as Non-comm Longs decreasing. Ideally for Price action i want to see USOIL consolidate then make a lower high before its leg down (BLUE), there's the possibility it makes the lower high without consolidating (RED) but I do need to see the 5 EMA cross down the 20 EMA while Momentum is negative and the Stochastic is crossing down 50%
Fundamental: Were seeing a up tick in Non-comm Long and Short positions being held. Shorts are increasing at a faster pace. The Net positions is positive and holding steady.
Commercial (Hedgers) short positions is increasing significantly quicker then Longs, Net position is negative and decreasing/holding.
Technical: I'm expecting to see consolidation for the coming week/s between 78-81 with price action making a lower high causing a fake EMA cross over to the upside and setting its self up for more down side.
Entry Criteria: For me to consider a entry i have to keep seeing Short positions increase for both Non-comm and Comm in the coming weeks as well as Non-comm Longs decreasing. Ideally for Price action i want to see USOIL consolidate then make a lower high before its leg down (BLUE), there's the possibility it makes the lower high without consolidating (RED) but I do need to see the 5 EMA cross down the 20 EMA while Momentum is negative and the Stochastic is crossing down 50%
Comment:
Here is the COT report if any one wants to see it : cot-reports.com/comm...commercial-detailed/
Trade active:
I have partially opened up a short position with a tight Stop loss, im looking for a cross over of the 20 and 50 EMAs to the downside on the weekly
Comment:
The COT report that came out the May 24th didn't see much change with Non-commercial longs and shorts both seeing a slight decrease, the net positions also dropped but not by a Significant amount. Commercial saw a increase of both long and shorts with the Net positions seeing little to no change. I still hold my short bias for now until we get some different data that contradicts that bias.
COT report: cot-reports.com/comm...commercial-detailed/
COT report: cot-reports.com/comm...commercial-detailed/