The 200 is supporting very nicely our trend. After Doha we had the false breakout - the Saudi's beartrap- but the trend's direction was not really changed...
So now I think something really serious has to happen to break down here... Otherwise we should pop to 45$ and decide if we break out (1) or spend a few more hours in this smaller channel (2) If oil chooses the 2nd way it would produce a false breakout from the channel again and should very fast break back into the purple channel .
Otherwise nothing will stop it to rally to 48$... And we are running out of sellers again...
I'll be watching where price is closing on the daily chart.
We might be heading to the 20 EMA.
If we close below the 10 EMA we will tag the 20 EMA at 42.5$ or the 200 EMA at 42$.
So all those who are overleveraged have to be prepaired to 1.5 $ from here.
We are to early for printing a DCL so I don' think we are going to fall below 42$.
I will post a daily chart tonight. But I will not close the oil positions - I was adding ERX today as I think the stocks are turning up again. And then oil stocks will follow the markets.
Most probably oil too.