chartwatchers
Long

OIL - Falling with stocks

TVC:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3936 58 59
Last week Friday oil             turned down from our daily cycle's first trendline (red). In normal circumstances that level shouldn't have been such a strong resistance but the falling stocks scared the oil             longs also and we had a little panic.
As stocks were moving down into the daily cycle low bears could use the possibility to turn down price from the red trendline . That was the only reason oil             was dropping so heavily last week Friday. Normally we would have had 2 -3 nothing day around the trendline .

The next move will be a break above the red trendline . As we break it I will remove that from the chart and the only trendline I'll be watching is the blue daily cycle trendline which we will be testing or breaking down at the daily cycle low. Though we are getting a bit late in this daily cycle I still think we have 7-10 more days to rally and I would like to see oil             to break above the previous high (51.6$)

If stocks are starting to rally out of the DCL today that will give a big push to oil             shares and oil             also.
The big winner will be XLE             and ERX in this rally.
Comment: We are tagging the daily cycle's trendline. We should bounce from here after today's data. If there is no bounce and we beak down the blue trendline we will be heading to the DCL for 4-5 days. It should be a weak DCL to 42-43$.
snapshot
Comment: We broke the trendline though the data was good.
Let's wait the close
YOU ARE MY BEST MENTOR !!!! IM FALLOWING U SICNCE I STARTED HERE !!! 4-8-2016 ;)
+2 Reply
Arpi, how did you calculated the blue line? Thanks! great work!
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chartwatchers PRO showerreport
zoom into the first picture
+2 Reply
The difference between your work and other technical analysts is that you understand macro really well. your followers probably dont know that but i can tell from your predictions. Great work.
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you are superman
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Machinerain Machinerain
yes
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It might be a good timing to get some oil?
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Thanks for the analysis, Apri. Completely agree with the direction. I think Oil will do another oscillation between the blue and the missing line that could be drawn through Aug 19 and Sep 8 highs after which it'll start its upward journey.
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with your analysis, do you consider seasonality, inventory reports or such events? usually we start seeing a build mid Oct to mid Dec. Dollar should start rolling over which definitely supports higher oil prices, and this time everyone will be surprised by the OPEC freeze. They could easily push this over $50 by the first week of Oct. then we might hit a resistance again.
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I don't believe in seasonality. Today was a perfect example how oil can fall on a bullish data
+3 Reply
Can you please update with what action to expect for Wed, Thursday, Friday of this week. Thanks.
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It will decline to 43.5 in an impulsive manner and then turn around and go up
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Oil has stuck it's nose below the trendline, inventory must be bad but lets see
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Pretty sure 42-43 is on deck. Oil looking weak. Even yesterday's good data provider zero relief. We break through 43 with any momo and I wouldn't rule out even lower prices on panic selling. Looks like you're a bit early on your gold and energy trades this go around.
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Hi Arpi,
there is a SL for this long strategy,,?

Thanks
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Gibster MassimoMattioli
I would have thought your stop loss should be about the price where it is now, under the blue trendline, you could see what happens in 40 mins time when the inventory comes out and if its bad close it, if its good keep hold
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Gibster is true. I will set my stop below the last hourly candle's bottom.
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Gibster chartwatchers
hope you kept hold!
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Hold the position after bullish data,,,but probably not a good call
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what instrument do u trade for oil?
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CFD OILUSNOV
+1 Reply
Arpi, I do appreciate your guadance. Very good training, thank you
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Looks like your option 2 is in play. Triangle's forming?

snapshot
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Your blue trend line is broken after oil data
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VirtualFax GoGreen
Well, then Plan B, as Arpi indicated, is $42 zone support line, which could be traced back to early 2015. Hopefully, plan C won't be needed.
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ja.piotr.bor VirtualFax
This can leed to another DCL like in August...
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next step 43.14 next 41.42
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Thanks for the update. "Data was good". No so sure about that. We had a small oil draw plus a BIG distillate build. Gas rose as well.
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HI chart...after these days i'm quite frightened...something is change in this rally or we will see 51$ or more?? thanks a lot
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Can someone explain what "DCL" means?
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koastech mp21587
Daily Cycle Low
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mp21587 koastech
Cool, thank you! Its highly appreciated.
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koastech mp21587
You are welcome!
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After this correction, USOIL will boom, skyrocket through the ceiling...! For sure!
+1 Reply
ma.sanjuy Parabolica
I dont think so. Oil is not in short supply and demand of oil is increasingly being met by alternate sources i.e. solar based power stations, solar based electric motor cars etc etc. The oil cartels seem to be now realising this and i dont think they will want to now keep raising their prices. If they do so, they are indirectly killing their own markets...
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Parabolica ma.sanjuy
Oil's purpose is not confined to motorcars. Even if your statement were true, ages would have to pass until developing countries and undeveloped countries would be able to benefit from solar and electric alternatives. Without oil you wouldn't have a keyboard to type your comment...
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andrej123456 Parabolica
It won't skyrocket. You probably noticed that major banks have big bets on short oil futures.
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Parabolica andrej123456
Their shorts are not cast in stone not are mine... But I concede the commitment of traders is important. Nonetheless, after this correction, which might take another while, we will go up. The leg on the daily chart has to end and it will end
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andrej123456 Parabolica
I agree. But it is going to take months to years to reach let's say 70 USD/barrel. + We would keep in mind what hapenned before 2000 and 2008 USA elections. I think that' there is a possibility that stock market can collapse if Trump is going to win or after wins. And then we can see not 29 USD/barrel but 19 USD/barrel for a while.
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Oil price seems like not good. It will go south further when tomorrow pull back to test trend line.
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nnavarrete nnavarrete
Lately bottoms have been stretchered out more than usual... market manipulation at its best... SL hunt for sure, before the bulls come...

Same thing happening in Gold.

snapshot
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Tj nnavarrete
looks very reasonable entry for long
+1 Reply
What calculations are you using to determine a "weak" DCL?
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As we couldn't break the previous high at 52.
+2 Reply
could it be a good point to long ? 43.32 resistance (on 4h) seems to work
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Not now. We might have 4-5 days of more decline from here if we go down into the daily cycle low
+1 Reply
normichtrader chartwatchers
Think we're finally catching a bid?
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snapshot

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Here is another outlook considering also shoulders with a nek
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The gartley for limited up
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ja.piotr.bor investment6300
wow. It can go up or down... Thanks now we know everything!
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Glad I could help, up or down
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Man, are you still holding you oily portfolio ? Do you think that on Monday we should see the reversal ?
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So I guess DCL was at 42.78$ on friday and we are not gonna go lower on monday or tuesday or any again? Good point to add? I thought that if we talk about 4-5 days of DCL it will be at monday or tuesday.
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And LGCY shares are you holding still ? And SXE, SXE are going to underperform...
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Can you update it?
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any updates on this chart will be appreciated.
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