So the downtrend has started, there was a lot of longs in the market and they are getting nervous, there will be a big selloff either today or tomorrow which will bring the oïl prices down to about $42 - $40. Then OPEC will get nervous and send out messages that a deal might be a potential avenue, but again what does Saudi Arabia have to gain? It only costs them $10/bb to produce compaired to Can or US it is peanuts. It is to there advantage to kill off other producers so they can increase market share. I will wait till about $42 and get out and look at what happens after the OPEC meeting. Then if positive news you buy long, if negative buy short. Good luck investors.
I don't like to speculate on fundamentals but obviously Saudi Arabia is manipulating oil prices. There's the big IPO of Saudi Aramco happening soon and it would be in Saudi's best interest to have oil prices up before the IPO. This is just an idea that I'm thinking about... Let's see how it goes. By the way I expect oil prices to go up now for the next week or so.
I agree, I sold my short yesterday and bought long. Prices should go up for a few sessions, unless the rig counts goes way up this afternoon. There will be a lot of resistance if that happens. As I predicted, as soon as it hit $42 news came out about the OPEC output freeze and prices shifted up. For how long, who knows. Last year in September the price of oïl went down, trend or not? Good luck today, hopefully since I changed my position the oïl will go up, up, up.
Sorry I didn't see you comment before. But I don't give signals, I just publish some of my analysis for educational purpose and to share it with the community. The reason I don't give signals is because I can't manage your risk for you and I don't want people to take my trades and when one of them goes in the wrong direction and the person didn't manage risk, I don't want that person to blame me for the loss... Feel free to comment my analysis if you have any questions, it will be a pleasure to answer them.
You might be right, the market is flooded by oïl. The Americans are still increasing their rig count not to lose market share. OPEC is giving false hope to the market, they want to squash the smaller countries to have fewer players, I bleieve that was there plan all along. Market will probably hit the $45/pb then before the meeting in mid September the price will rise to about $49/pb, then with the rejection of the deal, will go back down to about $40/pb or lower. The market will lose confidence in any deals and the oïl will keep on flooding the market.
That is what we can read in the news. I prefer only to trade what my technical analysis is saying. By doing so I don't have a psychological bias and my trading is better that way. What you say makes sense tho. Thanks for your comment!