chartwatchers

OIL - Panic selling : DAY 4

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3213 47 60
4 months ago
We are almost there ... 1 - 1,5 weeks and oil             will be rallying out of the bottom.
As we broke 44.40$ the panic selling stage was triggered at the end of this intermediate decline. Today is day 4 of the panic selling.
If I'm right we will be bottoming by next week Tuesday -Wednesday. Some consolidation for a few days and a rally out of the bottom.

Today's data was weak so the panic selling continues. We are heading to the purple box.

Today we just tagged the FIBO 38.2 level. This is an important level. Some of the bears will close the short positions here so I don't think we will drop a lot more today. The bottom ( ICL) should be between FIBO 38.2 and 50 .
So hold on for a few more days and we will be buying.

We are not going to take out the Saudi beartrap bottom during this correction.
4 months ago
Comment: Panic selling - Day 5
One day closer to the bottom...
I think Stock markets will print a HCL in the following 2-3 days. That will be the last push for oil to arrive to the bottom. As stocks are coming out from the HCL oil will start to rally again in its new intermediate cycle.
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4 months ago
Comment: ERX is not buying the oil drop.
Nor the oil shares.
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4 months ago
Comment: Day 6 of panic selling with new low again.
We are at the box 1 day earlier.
Contrarians will say that this forecast was not exact. :)
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Ibrahim_Maher
4 months ago
Arpii does gold strategy still valid
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xiiimik
4 months ago
Hello! What about gold? Seems to break from trendline.
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chartwatchers PRO xiiimik
4 months ago
working on that one
few minutes and I update
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snapshot


Just wanted to add a couple of things:
- Daily bullish divergence almost set. I believe a perfect indicator to start adding longs will be bullish divergences on 1H, 4H and Daily Timeframes. For now, 1H has a bearish divergence and 4H is neutral, so still some way to go as chartwatchers just mentioned
- Volumes. Lowest since 2015! New trends do not start with zig-zags and no trend starts with such low volumes. New trends start when money comes in strongly. So, this is not a trend but a correction. Check volumes: when you see a raising daily volume alongside bullish divergences, that´s a perfect sign to jump in long.

For me possible ending prices for this correction are 40.50 (daily 200 MA) or 37.60 (Doha bottom). There should be a strong resistance zone between 41.50 and 40.50 as it is a range between Weekly 50 MA and Daily 200 MA
+1 Reply
verlin03 captain_smollett
4 months ago
Actually volume was high today for CL.... Not saying we don't bounce in the vacinity. I do think we are seeing a trend change and not a correction.
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captain_smollett PRO verlin03
4 months ago
Checked CL1! : volumes were higher than here, yes, but still lower than average and I also saw more green than red
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verlin03 captain_smollett
4 months ago
Hopium. Good luck with your trade. Don't be greedy on a bounce.
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andrej123456
4 months ago
ok, thank you again. I will wait and buy OAS shares then.
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verlin03
4 months ago
buying is a no no. sell only. any bounce is a selling opportunity IF crack spreads are stressed. i can tell you are obsessed the doha bear trap but you dont understand why we bounced here. we bounced because the "trap" improved crack spreads in front of the summer demand season. watch how any bullish news now becomes a bull trap :)
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andrej123456 verlin03
4 months ago
I meant that I am going to buy oil company , oasis petroleum shares when there is going to be a trend reversal at probably 35-38... would I short it till then ? Do you think it is safe ?
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verlin03 andrej123456
4 months ago
Wait for a demand response in RBOB. It's that simple. Way to early to try to pick a bottom especially with the winter ahead. When RBOB traded sub $1.10, gasoline stations in the US made a party out of it. One station gave you free gas if you bought a hot dog. Huge demand response.
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
4 months ago
No. Dont short it. Probably it's a buy tomorrow or next week.
+1 Reply
andrej123456 chartwatchers
4 months ago
ok.
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nnavarrete PRO chartwatchers
4 months ago
Did you just go long on ERX?
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captain_smollett PRO verlin03
4 months ago
Now that you mentioned traps, there is a bear trap still in play after Doha. This decline is perfect for trapped bears to cover their shorts. If I'm right, closed we get to 37, more intensive will be short squeezing which in the end will bring us to a new bullish trend
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verlin03 captain_smollett
4 months ago
oh jeeze
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verlin03 captain_smollett
4 months ago
I apologize if that was rude. I'll explain. If bears were still trapped... They would be trapped in the current contract clu6. Look at where this supposed bear trap is in this contract. You could assume that these bears rolled over their position but I don't think that would happen.
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verlin03 captain_smollett
4 months ago
One more thing... The likely bears that you are referring to are producers. They are also the ones that are currently contributing to the selling. Which brings me to the next point. This whole rally was speculative. Meaning, producers were selling to hedge, managed money was buying to cover or buying to hold. You will not see CL recover until producers roll off their hedges. They have not and are actually increasing their hedges.
+3 Reply
andrej123456 verlin03
4 months ago
It seems to me that Verlin is quite right. Look at daily chart. Verlin, What do you think where could be the next bottom ? Do you think that there is a possibility we will go back to 30 USD ?
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verlin03
4 months ago
kind of funny. first it was we are not going to take out $40.... now its we are not going to take out the doha bear trap... next it will be.... we are not going to break $30.... we are not going to break $26. fact is... no one can see that far out. sub $40 oil is apparent this fall.
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I am surprised that oil did not take the opportunity to spike. Weak, Very weak to me. Stocks also barely moved on the news. Oil wants to go down further and stocks are ready to correct.
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hittkts
4 months ago
why do you think that box is where we stop and start to rally?
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RationalTrader
4 months ago
We are currently at the 61.8 and 38.2 fibos of the bottom in Feb16, we have the 200 daily SMA around same level, and the psychological level of 40 as well...so in other words price is facing very much resistance to advance to under 40$ now. Will be very interesting to see how price will behave now this and next week. Great opportunity now to go long now with tight SL around 38-39 IMO
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RationalTrader RationalTrader
4 months ago
snapshot
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verlin03
4 months ago
Day 5 thoughts... We are grossly oversold but with little bullish news to go on we are headed sideways until the next eia. RBOB is showing signs of relative strength. There maybe a bout of short covering up to possibly $44.50 that would make a nice entry for a short position. Again, CL has to maintain elevated compared to RBOB until refiners capitulate. They decreased utilization to 92.4% which contributed to the crude build along with increased imports. During earnings calls, IOC and independent refiners acknowledged the low margin environment and alluded to cutbacks this falls. Some have switched to winter blend early.
+1 Reply
What is the best Etf to use in this trade. Is it stocks Etf or oil or energy in general? Please advise. Thanks!
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ja.piotr.bor
4 months ago
Ok, nice if we have luck, we can even trigger out 40 lvl, and be at 37-38...
That would be superb enter for me that missed the first enter at 27.
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robus
4 months ago
ERX not buying !? what does that signify... more drop coming !?
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chartwatchers PRO robus
4 months ago
No. It shows we are close to the end
+2 Reply
robus chartwatchers
4 months ago
yes ! I guess 40 would be last. 36 is little bit stretched target.
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hittkts chartwatchers
4 months ago
implies stocks know something the actual commodity doesn't.
its possible but i doubt it.
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traderzaius robus
4 months ago
ERX follows SPX during times like this. Doesn't really have much correlation to oil IMO but it is just rather reassuring. It can have a big down day when SPX drops.
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andrej123456
4 months ago
''ERX is not buying the oil drop.
Nor the oil shares.'' ... Yes, I have noticed that before, but why is it so ? They have copied oil I think until the last SPY rally.
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DXY painting a nice hammer on daily chart but engulfing on weekly. BoJ meeting results should resolve the direction tonight. I would trust daily candle for now and expect higher dollar tomorrow.
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monicaswkk PRO
4 months ago
Would you please update your view on NGAS? Many thanks!
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Oil producers might be high on Natural Gas today. Oil and Gas moved in different directions so companies just stayed.
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traderzaius pbartashevich
4 months ago
not even sure how NG is traded anymore.... its the hardest thing to hold
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What is HCL - cannot find anywhere.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
half daily cycle low
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Dps chartwatchers
4 months ago
In the Box already..
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traderzaius
4 months ago
Low volume = no more sellers. The low is just about here. Now is the time to back up the truck.
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Trendhopper PRO
4 months ago
Weekly shows a truly symmetrical pattern, today should be the lowest day ...24 weeks either side of the low at 27 dollars....should bounce next week, but then who knows.
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jackcrudeoil
4 months ago
Hi chart...which price do you suggest to wait for buy??thanks a lot
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chartwatchers PRO jackcrudeoil
4 months ago
I'm buying in this minute.
New post.
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yqakidwai
4 months ago
Hi can u pls tell us at what level u r buying oil? Thanks a lot
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