FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
6112 48 78
Before someone would start to chase             the price here I would suggest some caution here...

First of all I wish we could have gone all in with shorts at this idea:
OIL - Summer sale

:)

It seems oil             has printed its intermediate bottom. It broke below the 200 daily MA but recovered very fast and started to rally. Some of us were able to enter with longs at the 200 MA. For those who are still at the sidelines I would suggest some caution here. I didn't erase my red trendlines in this chart what I set a few weeks ago. I'm quite sure that we are going to print a double bottom - or beartrapped double bottom - before the real rally starts to 60-70$.

So if you enter here - RSI is overbought , MACD might want to cross over - be ready that price will come to 38-39-40$ with a double bottom .


Comment: I'm a bit frightened now.
When Saudis opening their mouth oil is heading to the opposite direction next day...

Now we have to wait till tomorrow to see if they just wanted to sell into this breakout....
Comment: Last time they were buying at the DOHA meeting at the "Saudi beratrap bottom"
Are they building a bull trap now??? And we will have an undercut double bottom?
thank you..
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Thank you for the chart, always.
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Thanks Arpi. I got in UWTI at a pretty good time with your charts. With one more drop to the bottom 38 to 40, sounds like an opportunity to take some profits and buy again at the bottom...?
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I would close some of the position. As you saw I didn't touch the OIL US CRUDE position at the metal trade.
I just closed ERX. In the case oil runs away you should be in a position. Just take profit on a partial position so you can wait out the double bottom.
If there is no double bottom you still have a position at the next months and you don'T have to worry about testbacks. You will be ready to add mentally .
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newatthis PRO chartwatchers
Thank you for the update. I have a position in UWTI as well which I entered at 17.61. I am so tempted to hold onto it but I also trust your opinion completely so I will see how today goes and may just close it. Still in the metal trade.
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bertcoin PRO chartwatchers
Thank you sir. Trusted your post and didn't wait for your nice reply and sold half. You are teaching patience and discipline in your ideas across a broad spectrum of products. It has improved my results tremendously.
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I don't think this is pulling back but I trust Apri way more than I trust myself on this and so closed my UWTI position at 20.55. Will get back in whenever you give the signal! Thank you!
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Thank you Sir :)
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did you close your long oil october CFD (400) ?
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andrej123456 andrej123456
ok. i see now...
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andrej123456 andrej123456
You are so smart.
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
I didnt close as it's a core position I want to add to that only...
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So if the price cant break 44.50 we can have a really good Short opportunity to 40 and then we go long?? ... im ok? Thanks
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avento Dguaman
no short opportunities here! Arpi just supposes that if someone would go long from here, one could suffer from a double bottom (which is highly probable, yet)
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Dguaman avento
Hmm ok.. im thinking in short at that price.. will see, thanks avento !
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I am sure.
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Dguaman JosephCarson
of what? ..
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Thank you for the caution. I think oil might hit a double bottom as well.
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thank you
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Thanx APRi , I will close I of my positions and buy back if double bottoms, thanx as others have said, teaching patience, ,!! Ron NZ
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If Oil is going to $60, why not just enter now? You are risking the chance of missing that double bottom. And what if that doesn't happen? Just load her up now and let her rip.
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xukaitan888 SupraBoy
that's IF.
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SupraBoy xukaitan888
Also a big if that it goes down. So what's a better bet? Shorting it here down to let's say $39? Or going long and rocket to $60? Shorting here, people are trying to squeeze out pennies.
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Thanks Apri! I closed 1/2 my position.
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Is it now time to add longs or wait for little less ?
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Arpi,you are a genius. I do not know how you are able to anticipate markets so clearly, but I appreciate it.

I made 18% on oil's turn at $39 w/ UWTI. Closed that and put in half the position pre-close yesterday on DWTI to catch some of the backslide, just liquidated and made another ~10%. Thank you

I will be waiting to get back on UWTI either Friday or monday...when do you anticipate the double bottom to conclude?
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This warning saved me my a** and my bank account! Thanks Arpi!
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rere04 SteveHer
2x here
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Wow it's almost following exactly the lines you drew! :)
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Hmmm... So the Saudis open their mouths and scared the market. Did that move the $38 to $40 bottom up and wait for the next long entry point around $42, or did it just delay the $30 to $40 bottom by a couple days?
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What was about with saudi now? Why this has gone so far?
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Hmmm... When YOU say "I'm a bit frightened now", maybe a little unsafe to hold UWTI. Taking the rally profit (up 14%+ today) and wait for things to settle out....
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p70526606805

Arpi, could this chart indicate the beggining of drop in oil? I did it myself, It could be awful .. let me know your thoughts! Thanks!
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You could be right. But we are along way from the dch so we have alot a bullish movement in front of us.At these prices you can still trade and with a low enough leverage you can ride out any lows and still double your money at the $51 mark.
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Great analysis. UWTI chart both daily and 4H are completely bullish with RSI, Stock, and MACD (both standard and 5-13). Perfect to long it here with a tight SL.
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I also feel frightened by the chart.
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Today's volume could be bigger for such move but who knows.
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I think that oil should approach low $30 for geo political reasons. It is just my speculation. But it will NOT got o $60-$70 in nearest year for same geo-political reasons. In order to allow that you need to take market share from Russia first. Like US or Saudi's supply EU and China or something like that. Unless US's grip is weakening.
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Nightstar pbartashevich
Geo-Political reasons have nothing to do with OIL going up to $60.. Once you understand that you'll look at Charts in a whole new way.
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so I think you suggest us to watch rather than enter the market. Am I right?
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Look more like a breakout than a bull trap.
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traderzaius traderzaius
I find it hard to believe they can engineer a move yesterday then another one today when they are going in different directions. What difference did 24 hours really make?
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I lost directions. The spike up today caught me by surprise.
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AaronSwan PRO liuzhiji8888
I would like to know thoughts about a continuation of the todays rally for tomorrow, I would like to compare charts. Thanks in Advance
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Do not short this! Fundamentals are now changing substantially, oil production is in balance again. Only a question of how long it will take to bring it above 50$.
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ja.piotr.bor carli1506
Yeah in 24-48hours all fundamentals changed. What a BS...
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really want to be long, but dont really want to chase this but I sure am tempted to chase now after todays action. Feel $44.40-$44.50 area might show some resistance., anyone agree? would expect/hope for pull back and better long entry in coming weeks. continued short covering rally by managed money as they have large short position built up, curious what COT report shows this week; absolutely would not want to short into this now I dont think.
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I've been following you since the Oil was around $27 and i really enjoy your analyzis and learn from you, I would like to share my view i that i just came up with you and everyone that follows you and you. I see a potential Cypher which ends at 40.31. That sets up a potential butterfly patter with C point hitting the up trendline and completing at 37.75 maybe even 35.90 before we continue the rally to 55 or even higher. Best regards and waiting for a reply :)
snapshot
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