Well 3 primary assumptions were being made.
1) Iran was NOT capable of increasing production very quickly
2) US shale production was going to drop to 8mmbls/d by year end.
3) US gasoline demand was dramatically higher than it actually was ( EIA misreported this in the spring).
All these factors have been proven wrong. Whats worse is that everyone is increasing.
Oil is in a big OPEC/EIA bubble and the popping of that bubble is underway.
When no freeze deal is reached in Sep the price reaction will be very different than it was in the spring because we have much better information now about the state of the oil market. Supply is unquestionably greater than Demand and we have record inventories. We dont have room to inject another 50mmbls of oil like we did the last 2 winters.
50 DAY now under the 100 DAY.
Short this thing!