chartwatchers
Short

OIL - The red candle

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
7549 42 80
5 months ago
Here is our red candle. Not a simple candle: key reversal.
Shorts can take a breather. Late longs will pay the price of their late entry for 2-3 days.
As this rally was a monster rally and we finished the rally with a doji there will be at least one more red candle tomorrow.
1. I think we are going to tag the 10 EMA (red) tomorrow. So the first long entry points are at 46$.
2. If we are lucky we will have one more red candle on Wednesday. This red candle should be a hammer tagging the intermediate cycle down trend line and the 20 EMA ( green)
This is our 2nd entry point: 45$.
And I think that's it. RSI will leave the oversold territory and can get oversold again during the following 10 days.
This 2-3 days drop will not affect MACD. MACD is predicting higher prices.
Volume:
I would like to see decreasing volume tomorrow and on Wednesday.

This pullback will be the chance of the shorts to ease the pain and get back the lost money with longs.
Don't ruin this opportunity we might never see 45-46$ oil             again...


I will set this idea as short but I'm not going to short it just showing the most probable direction.
Also suggest not to short oil             . Wait for the entry points and go long.

5 months ago
Comment: Don't forget: we are buyers at the 10EMA.
It's today at 46.3$. This is also the lower trendline of the bull flag.
Have some dry powder for 45$ also. I don't think we will get 45$ : it would be a gift.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Buying.
5 months ago
Comment: "val_trader:
Please, might change the short in long ...? When I open your wonderful chart my heart - for a second - sink .."
It's long now but some ppl - not you valtrader- just read the text and short or long.
If I set it long 5 days ago I would have gotten 100 messages in the last 4 days that:
"Man we are going down!"
AlbertBa PRO
5 months ago
how do you know this? :)
Reply
keefer0
5 months ago
If we have longs do we sell here and re-long at your points above or just hold our longs and add at your points above? Thanks.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO keefer0
5 months ago
Too late. Should have sold when I transferred my position from oil to ERX.
Dont loose the position. Add tomorrow and Wednesday.
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
Dont lose...
+2 Reply
keefer0 chartwatchers
5 months ago
You only transferred 1/3 of your position to ERX... My longs are in the money plenty from 43.. it's my ERX that has dragged me down from late last week. I've added some today and will look to add tomorrow and the next. Thanks for your input.
Reply
SupraBoy keefer0
5 months ago
The oil run has been quite explosive. There is nothing wrong scaling back and taking profits.
Reply
keefer0 SupraBoy
5 months ago
Based on Genscape and PA today.. I've scaled back my ERX, waiting for the pullback and will add tomorrow and Wednesday before EIA, but have added to my USO and UCO calls. This is not stopping before $51
Reply
SupraBoy keefer0
5 months ago
Yup, it will hit $51, but it doesn't mean this thing is going up in a straight line. If you look at it subjectively, the rise has been quite insane and have killed a lot of shorts. People kept shorting from 40 and up. Eventually, the shorts will get it right once like today. The chances of it going to 46 is quite high, but going down to 43 would be difficult.
Reply
keefer0 SupraBoy
5 months ago
Understood. Seasonality plays against Bears leading up to Sept.
Reply
AYosof
5 months ago
Nice analysis as always... you have got classes you teach maybe albertBa is interested...;)
+1 Reply
AlbertBa PRO AYosof
5 months ago
Sure, I would be more than happy to learn from the successful gentleman ) asking for the expert opinion is better and faster way than learning own mistakes.
Reply
Biggles
5 months ago
Hello Chartwathchers, do you favour ERX over UWTI? thanks for all your help :)
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Biggles
5 months ago
I thought ERX will not break below the breakout level when oil pulls back.
It broke unfortunately. Both of them is good.
I'm also buyiing GASL .That could be also very good...
+1 Reply
StanLeee PRO
5 months ago
Hello everyone!

I just entered LONG at 47.00 at the 0.78% of FIbo Retracements. Can you say that is too early? Should I keep the position or recommend some SL? Is it recommendable to do eventual Martingale on 46 and 45?
I will appreciate any advice.

Regards,
Stanley
Reply
chartwatchers PRO StanLeee
5 months ago
Hold it and add at 46 or 45. We will test 51 in 2 weeks from now.
Reply
xukaitan888
5 months ago
Your call always makes me feel a lot better about my position! I am pretty sure, without your post, I must ruined some of my position in many trades! Thanks
+4 Reply
andrej123456 xukaitan888
5 months ago
Yes , fór me the same
Reply
PonmudiKrishnan
5 months ago
when we expect to bounce ?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO PonmudiKrishnan
5 months ago
Friday?
Reply
jackcrudeoil
5 months ago
Hi Chart...do you think that pullback is finished or we can go back until 46?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO jackcrudeoil
5 months ago
I think not ready yet. We have to wait the first 2-3 hours of north american markets. Then we could see the direction.
Reply
AYosof chartwatchers
5 months ago
Is the chart invalid now or we are still looking at this?
Reply
AYosof chartwatchers
5 months ago
appreciate your feedback on this....
Reply
SupraBoy jackcrudeoil
5 months ago
You will see a pullback to 46 and a bit. Maybe to the mid 45s. That's when you go all in and roll the dice.
Reply
Staxs
5 months ago
Pop on Iran OPEC news......
Reply
NickAnderson31
5 months ago
Can somebody please explain what happened to WTI crude today between 10:46am EST and 10:49.... massive rally seeminly out of nowhere, and I cannot find any news?
Best,
Nick
Reply
TexasTower85 NickAnderson31
5 months ago
Reuter's issued report stating there are positive signals Iran may be on board to freeze output. The last talks supposedly broke down because they weren't willing to freeze
Reply
Tj PRO
5 months ago
Chartwatchers, would appreciate your update. thank you
Reply
Mitasse
5 months ago
It appears that Iran took care of the big red candle today.. is this enough to stop the correction that was taking place?, it seems so far but maybe bit premature to call the end of the correction, will have to watch oil price reaction until the end of the week to confirm i guess
Reply
Afternoon, Sir! According to your calculations, when is the Cycle low?
Reply
flovax
5 months ago
I'm having difficulties finding the right UWTI price if OIL get's to 46.3. Going back in history doesn't give me the good price. Anyone having advise how to do that?
Reply
dannyinhouston PRO flovax
5 months ago
It's roughly 3x so calculate the percentage change in crude and multiply by 3.
Reply
BrayanRush
5 months ago
Hi!
candle touched EMA 10, buy now or we wait londres?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO BrayanRush
5 months ago
STarted to buy
Reply
hungvolai chartwatchers
5 months ago
you're not concerned about volume not decreasing?
Reply
AYosof chartwatchers
5 months ago
are we going long from here?
Reply
val_trader
5 months ago
Please, might change the short in long ...? When I open your wonderful chart my heart - for a second - sink ..
Reply
I won't trade oil for geo-political reasons. Natural gas on the other hand yes. I hope for bullish data in 15 minutes to buy last time before it takes off.
Reply
avento
5 months ago
Arpi, did you see a huge drop in NUGT? I think to buy it, but not sure...
Reply
avento avento
5 months ago
oh, it's occured to be just a 1-for-5 reverse split (announced in the previous month)
+1 Reply
val_trader
5 months ago
OK ! thanks for the answer
Reply
alanprotrader
5 months ago
you are right. The unpatience to make money sometimes make we take earlier decitions.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out