chartwatchers
Short

OIL - The red candle

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
7560 42 80
Here is our red candle. Not a simple candle: key reversal.
Shorts can take a breather. Late longs will pay the price of their late entry for 2-3 days.
As this rally was a monster rally and we finished the rally with a doji there will be at least one more red candle tomorrow.
1. I think we are going to tag the 10 EMA (red) tomorrow. So the first long entry points are at 46$.
2. If we are lucky we will have one more red candle on Wednesday. This red candle should be a hammer tagging the intermediate cycle down trend line and the 20 EMA ( green)
This is our 2nd entry point: 45$.
And I think that's it. RSI will leave the oversold territory and can get oversold again during the following 10 days.
This 2-3 days drop will not affect MACD. MACD is predicting higher prices.
Volume:
I would like to see decreasing volume tomorrow and on Wednesday.

This pullback will be the chance of the shorts to ease the pain and get back the lost money with longs.
Don't ruin this opportunity we might never see 45-46$ oil             again...


I will set this idea as short but I'm not going to short it just showing the most probable direction.
Also suggest not to short oil             . Wait for the entry points and go long.

Comment: Don't forget: we are buyers at the 10EMA.
It's today at 46.3$. This is also the lower trendline of the bull flag.
Have some dry powder for 45$ also. I don't think we will get 45$ : it would be a gift.
snapshot
Comment: Buying.
Comment: "val_trader:
Please, might change the short in long ...? When I open your wonderful chart my heart - for a second - sink .."
It's long now but some ppl - not you valtrader- just read the text and short or long.
If I set it long 5 days ago I would have gotten 100 messages in the last 4 days that:
"Man we are going down!"
how do you know this? :)
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If we have longs do we sell here and re-long at your points above or just hold our longs and add at your points above? Thanks.
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Too late. Should have sold when I transferred my position from oil to ERX.
Dont loose the position. Add tomorrow and Wednesday.
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
Dont lose...
+2 Reply
keefer0 chartwatchers
You only transferred 1/3 of your position to ERX... My longs are in the money plenty from 43.. it's my ERX that has dragged me down from late last week. I've added some today and will look to add tomorrow and the next. Thanks for your input.
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SupraBoy keefer0
The oil run has been quite explosive. There is nothing wrong scaling back and taking profits.
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keefer0 SupraBoy
Based on Genscape and PA today.. I've scaled back my ERX, waiting for the pullback and will add tomorrow and Wednesday before EIA, but have added to my USO and UCO calls. This is not stopping before $51
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SupraBoy keefer0
Yup, it will hit $51, but it doesn't mean this thing is going up in a straight line. If you look at it subjectively, the rise has been quite insane and have killed a lot of shorts. People kept shorting from 40 and up. Eventually, the shorts will get it right once like today. The chances of it going to 46 is quite high, but going down to 43 would be difficult.
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keefer0 SupraBoy
Understood. Seasonality plays against Bears leading up to Sept.
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Nice analysis as always... you have got classes you teach maybe albertBa is interested...;)
+1 Reply
AlbertBa AYosof
Sure, I would be more than happy to learn from the successful gentleman ) asking for the expert opinion is better and faster way than learning own mistakes.
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Hello Chartwathchers, do you favour ERX over UWTI? thanks for all your help :)
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I thought ERX will not break below the breakout level when oil pulls back.
It broke unfortunately. Both of them is good.
I'm also buyiing GASL .That could be also very good...
+1 Reply
Hello everyone!

I just entered LONG at 47.00 at the 0.78% of FIbo Retracements. Can you say that is too early? Should I keep the position or recommend some SL? Is it recommendable to do eventual Martingale on 46 and 45?
I will appreciate any advice.

Regards,
Stanley
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Hold it and add at 46 or 45. We will test 51 in 2 weeks from now.
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Your call always makes me feel a lot better about my position! I am pretty sure, without your post, I must ruined some of my position in many trades! Thanks
+4 Reply
andrej123456 xukaitan888
Yes , fór me the same
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when we expect to bounce ?
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chartwatchers PRO PonmudiKrishnan
Friday?
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Hi Chart...do you think that pullback is finished or we can go back until 46?
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chartwatchers PRO jackcrudeoil
I think not ready yet. We have to wait the first 2-3 hours of north american markets. Then we could see the direction.
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AYosof chartwatchers
Is the chart invalid now or we are still looking at this?
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AYosof chartwatchers
appreciate your feedback on this....
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SupraBoy jackcrudeoil
You will see a pullback to 46 and a bit. Maybe to the mid 45s. That's when you go all in and roll the dice.
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Pop on Iran OPEC news......
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Can somebody please explain what happened to WTI crude today between 10:46am EST and 10:49.... massive rally seeminly out of nowhere, and I cannot find any news?
Best,
Nick
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TexasTower85 PRO NickAnderson31
Reuter's issued report stating there are positive signals Iran may be on board to freeze output. The last talks supposedly broke down because they weren't willing to freeze
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Chartwatchers, would appreciate your update. thank you
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It appears that Iran took care of the big red candle today.. is this enough to stop the correction that was taking place?, it seems so far but maybe bit premature to call the end of the correction, will have to watch oil price reaction until the end of the week to confirm i guess
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Afternoon, Sir! According to your calculations, when is the Cycle low?
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I'm having difficulties finding the right UWTI price if OIL get's to 46.3. Going back in history doesn't give me the good price. Anyone having advise how to do that?
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It's roughly 3x so calculate the percentage change in crude and multiply by 3.
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Hi!
candle touched EMA 10, buy now or we wait londres?
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STarted to buy
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hungvolai chartwatchers
you're not concerned about volume not decreasing?
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AYosof chartwatchers
are we going long from here?
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Please, might change the short in long ...? When I open your wonderful chart my heart - for a second - sink ..
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I won't trade oil for geo-political reasons. Natural gas on the other hand yes. I hope for bullish data in 15 minutes to buy last time before it takes off.
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Arpi, did you see a huge drop in NUGT? I think to buy it, but not sure...
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avento avento
oh, it's occured to be just a 1-for-5 reverse split (announced in the previous month)
+1 Reply
OK ! thanks for the answer
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you are right. The unpatience to make money sometimes make we take earlier decitions.
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