Kumowizard

WTI - It's not just sideaway, it's been a doji for 5 days

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
469 17 5
Get ready! Trading range has become so thin, that the breakout and next move will be very agressive.

Technical picture has not chenged anything since my last post, except that Heikin Ashi signals an absolute undecision. Investors are clueless. No one really believes now that a break and fly to 70+ can hapen, but nor they believe it should really drop.

Tenkan and Senkou A still point up, price is above Kijun and we have a thick Kumo support below price.

As I believe in a weaker USD and more global risk on in coming months, I still believe that WTI price break is more likely to happen on the upper side. Next spike above 61 should be a firm (and maybe an ultimate) buy signal. If that happens, we will see a sharp move up to 70+ area.

p.s.: I already have some long position.

RJHumphries7d
a year ago
Good Morning, Looks all good to me. Are you putting your SL below the current structure at 56.309 with a tg of 70.00?? Roughly a 1-2.5 R/R ratio??
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Opposite case:
- still bearish be bullish
- still bullish be bearish
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The only risk I can see now is if Grexit becomes a reality.
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Kumowizard PRO coolingla
a year ago
It can be risk for equities, but I don't think it means any risk to US Oil.
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coolingla PRO Kumowizard
a year ago
Do you see the risk now?
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Kumowizard PRO coolingla
a year ago
I still see it rather on equities and in increased FX volatility. Oil is still within 58-61 tight range (with some bearish bias in last 3 days).
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coolingla PRO Kumowizard
a year ago
Kumo, that's a rhetorical question.

Basically, I just wanted to warn you of the risk of Grexit on Oil.

I followed you for quite some time and learned a lot from you. However, you can now see there are serious limitations to Kumo trading. Had you studied the Greek and Oil situation in depth, you would have reached the conclusion that a potential drop was the most probable outcome of oil, weeks before it actually happened.
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Second bullish Heikin Ashi candle today? Wait for the close! Yesterday API number was supportive. If today Crude inventories decrease further, then it can finally break the trendline, the horizontal range and start to shoot higher to tgt 70+ area.
+2 Reply
PolarSolar PRO Kumowizard
a year ago
... opposite case.
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Kumowizard PRO PolarSolar
a year ago
Excuse me, opposite to what? 6 days passed, and It is still in tight range consolidation 58-61. I don't know which way it will break... I try to be a trend follower, not a trend predictor, which is a huge difference.
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PolarSolar PRO Kumowizard
a year ago
Uptrend from deep down
Falling from highs
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on the daily there is a bullish engulfing for me after this prolonged consolidation going to buy for breakout to the top the move can be aggressive because of the long consolidation period place stop below yestersday low the r/r is very positive
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Kumowizard PRO MarkLangley
a year ago
that's the point my friend! 58-61 range, with the trendline descending day by day. If it breaks through 60,50-61,00 then it will be same stroy as Wheat, Corn, Soybeans... +20 %
+1 Reply
WTI turns bearish in short term. Breaks the bottom of the range at 58. Dips more into the thick Kumo. Heikin Ashi is firm bearish, haDelta/SMA3 further down below zero line.
No real support until 52,00-54,00 zone.
My last longs got stopped yesterday at 58-
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RJHumphries7d Kumowizard
a year ago
I followed this trade but didn't put a SL on so I'm still in it. We are seeing some retracement up from 57. We're currently at 57.7 you think this is going to continue higher or fall right back on it's ass??
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Kumowizard PRO RJHumphries7d
a year ago
First of all, you must always put a stop loss on a trade! If something is not working, or proves to be a bad idea, we must admit and cut loss.
According to Heikin Ashi setup I still see it bearish, I don't know how low it can go (I see some possible supp/res ard 55,50), but until now I do not see any signal for a possible reversal or upward correction.
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes Kumowizard
a year ago
Fibonacci retracement still not completed, I would like to see at least the 0.382 retracement. The daily inverted hammer could be a warning signal for bears.
snapshot
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