chartwatchers
Long

OIL - New hope

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
6849 52 91
We went for long at the exact bottom on Friday. I will be still frightened though.
There is only a 40-45% chance that it was the bottom at this correction.

Signs of the bottom:
Bouncing from the 200 Simple Moving Average (200MA)
RSI is turning up sharply - in the past it was the sign of the reversal
SlowStoch is crossing over and turning up
The panic selling's volume is good for the bottom: decreasing as sellers are drying up (Check the January 2016 panic selling volume )
Based on this I say we are ready to run.

Signs against the bottom :
Volume is too small on Friday
MACD is not turning up and far from the crossover
Target price counted from the triangle is far away (38$)
Price still might want to enter between the 200 SMA and the 50 FIBO

SO the next 2-3 days are very important. How strong the bounce will be(no doubt there will be a bounce) . If we are printing too big candles it's not good. If we are printing very small candles that' also not healthy for calling the bottom.
And the volume . We need a big volume on Monday or Tuesday. Otherwise the decline continues for a few more days.

Timewise we can fall till the 12th August....

I set this idea as a long, one can still try a long position early tomorrow but no more than 5% of the capital. If we are starting to run oil             will be between 60-70 by the end of this year . So you don't have to worry about missing the first 2-3 $.

As I'm here at the UAE I don't see any signs of the oil             recession. Constructions are running, places are full etc.
Again: the sub 30$ oil             is a history. Sooner or later everyone will realize. Who realizes early will make big money the rest will be shorting this all the way up. But that's the market.

Saudi BT             Bottom will not be taken out. I think that's a too important level. I think all the powers consulted before that how far they will let oil             price to fall That was the level where all of them standig with their buys at that night.

PS.: Constructive notes are very welcome below this post. Contrarian notes also.
But if you are contrarian pls             at least post a chart to support your view : and all we can see how detailed your analysis is.

Comment: DAY 8 of panic selling
The swing yesterday was erased completely and we broke below the 200 MA.
Everybody is getting super bearish. The fundamentals are calling the end of the world.
I'M getting ready to buy again.
Next important level is at the FIBO 50 (38.84)
snapshot
Comment: It's an interesting day. They might have run the stops below the 200 MA and starting the rally???
Yesterday's high is very important. If we break above we are ready to run
Hi APRi , I have bought at 39 and 40 on your proposal. Small lots, ie 5 each, should I continue to hold and or maybe buy again... This is now 6 days since your last comment..I have brought up SL to profit. Just wondering, wether your derection is still bullish for oil.? Thanx for all your great work...Ron NZ
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I hope you still have it.
Don't touch!
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Arpi - good point now to add long ? I haven't got any, because I was late to set up an account.
Or wecan have another ICL in the next week?
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Made an order at 40,45, hope we retest it tommorow to make it happen.
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what do we think; bottom in? RSI broke above a declining trend line I have on 4h; but not on daily. MACD turning up but still below 0 on 4h, has not turned up on daily yet, almost. Still would love to see ~$38 making perfect reverse H&S set up...
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Hi Arpi. Any opinions on buying ERX?
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Ok, we now have bottom, today that was. Will buy tommorow or friday.
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volume is not supporting a bottom. And other mixed signals. I'm waiting for a better entry (like we did this Feb) and would not regret if ending up with no position.
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Would say GUSH is a good one for this trade?
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4 CLU6 is best.
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