Oil looks toppy watch 49.50 for directionality

Yesterday's powerful move up through September's bearish resistance trendline looks to have been technically driven and out of steam. Earlier this morning, oil trade up to August's high of 49.30 and has since pulled back below fib ext of 49.51. If we see a breakout above 49.64, I'd expect continued upward strength to the 61.8% retracement at 52.44. Otherwise, and more likely, look for oil to trade back down to the bullish trend support from August's lows, somewhere below 47.00.

Keep in mind DOE numbers released at 10:30 could be a stimulus to accelerate oil in either direction.