Kumowizard
Long

When everybody is so bearish, then correction will happen. Cover

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
694 9 13
And by now the most obvious beliefe in the world is that Oil             is BEARISH , and that it will go straight down even from here! Hurray! What a great discovery, what a wisdom! Well, it's been bearish since the 100- weekly breakdown. :-)
As I wrote before on Twitter: "some rumours already circulating that gas stations will soon PAY YOU to take fuel away! Free oil             to everyone!" :-)

The thing is that when everybody is so bearish , and HFs has built the largest short position in the payst X years, a short squeeze can easily happen.

I don't say it is impossible to reach the 25 later. I don't say it is bullish (as I wrote above it is bearish ). What I say is that opening new shorts, or adding to existing positions is just not a good risk/reward from here.
OK, I know I wrote in my last post it was oversold. I just wanted to say it again. OVERSOLD and positionning way too bearish!

Daily:
- Ichimoku and Heikin-Ashi are both bearish (- / -)
- However Price reached lower resistance level ard possible wedge line almost by tick (+)
- haDelta has already reached its extreme low few days ago when price reached 36,50. Since then haDelta is a tad higher, but price lower: minor positive divergnece building (+)

4H:
- Bearish Ichimoku . Key reversal level is down to 38 - 38,50
- EWO is very low, but it made a slightly higher low compared to new low in price.
- Watch haDelta! Back to test zero Todays selling pressure quickly faded with US enterring mkt.
- A break above Tenkan Sen can extend short covering towards Kijun at 36,50, or maybe even higher to 38.

I promised I stop bottom fishing... but as I made quite a decent money on SPX             shorts from 2088, I could not resist to buy a small at 34,70 today again! :-D
So now I am talking my (quite stupid and not systematic) long position, which has a tight stop at 34,20.

Please if you trade smaller accounts, or if you are a beginning trader (not multi-year experienced) do not follow the most stupid bottom fishing strategy. It may work now, but as I wrote before it has not worked 5 times!
I will tell you when the model shows a proper counter trend signal to buy! Yes, maybe that will be above 37 or 38, but the risk/reward will rather be in your favour.

Rids
a year ago
Congratulations!
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Kumowizard PRO Rids
a year ago
for what? for the post, or for my gambling which now was a little bit more succesful than the 4-5 previous ones? :-D it worked, but it is still a gambling...
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2use
a year ago
Actually daily looks indeed good for a long play, unless breaks down
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Kumowizard PRO 2use
a year ago
I doubt it would break down. There is another indicator I follow on 4H charts. That is DMI/ADX. ADX reached a 50 (!) value with DI lines staying very wide. This also means market is extremely oversold short term!
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2use Kumowizard
a year ago
How would this be in line with EUR, USD, GOld?
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Kumowizard PRO 2use
a year ago
Do you mean what correlation is possible between these?
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M4B0X.
a year ago
Was watching the same level for contrarian trade, looking good now.
snapshot
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Kumowizard PRO M4B0X.
a year ago
well, at least the positive divergence improved a little bit further. Still no proper buy signal in my model. I mean OK, on the 4H there was a swing long, but I do not trade that lower time frame. I trade swing longs only on daily, supported by a 4H Ichimoku reversal. And this 4H reversal has not yet happened.
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docwesley90
a year ago
I went long below 35 but I can tell you everyone and their mom is expecting that pattern...the consensus for that wedge is too high for it to actually play out.
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