chartwatchers
Short

OIL - KEY REVERSAL

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3831 40 77
9 months ago
Oil             broke above the 2015-10-09 intermediate high and turned down from there with a key reversal.
It also has broken the trendline and broke below the 10 EMA today.
For a sustained move we will need a daily close below the 10 EMA and later the 20 EMA.
I have 3 levels which I think a possible spot for the DCL.
Level 1 50 EMA, 300 EMA - even in ligh decline we can have a DCL at this level (45$)
Level 2 200 EMA, 100 EMA - most probably we will print the DCL at the 100 EMA (43$)
Level 3 200 SMA - in extreme case we might come down till the 200 simple moving average (200 SMA ) (40$)

All the indicators are showing into the lower prices.
MACD crossed down and having the divergence.
RSI left overbought trying to break below the 50
Slow Stoch showing exactly the same picture as at the ast             DCL (21.03.)
9 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
9 months ago
Comment: 20 EMA tagged
snapshot
9 months ago
Comment: We are just testing 47.80. I think we will take out this low tomorrow and will be heading down to 46 (level1)
9 months ago
Comment: That's why I told no need to rush to buy oil.
It's throwing the curveball...
snapshot
EmalbansFx
9 months ago
Is it good to join the bears now?
+1 Reply
MrCheek
9 months ago
So you only see this correction to be at maximum a $9 move?
+1 Reply
KevinTang MrCheek
9 months ago
That is a big move.
+3 Reply
chrismirtsios
9 months ago
I m in.By the way i made a nice profit with XLE following a previous suggestion of yours.Thank you.
+1 Reply
jackcrudeoil
9 months ago
HI Chart...how many days do you think to achieve these price??thanks
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO jackcrudeoil
9 months ago
Minimum 5 days , Maximum 10-12
+3 Reply
ja.piotr.bor
9 months ago
I dont like shorting crude, but will join close to the dcl on reversal in buy.
+2 Reply
hittkts
9 months ago
what happens if we break through all those moving averages?
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel
9 months ago
Nice. Actually the same idea!
Oil mid-term top detected
+2 Reply
galaxytime77 zhipengcfel
9 months ago
OIL - KEY REVERSAL
Reply
SteveHer
9 months ago
On the $$$ Arpi thanks
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Robertgal74
9 months ago
Very nice!! New to charts, but looks like it wants to form an inverted right shoulder.
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Guys I'm a beginner, what is a DCL?
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saad2 MuthumanikandanPitchaiThangam
9 months ago
Daily Cycle Low
Reply
Gibster
9 months ago
Daily cycle low
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MuthumanikandanPitchaiThangam Gibster
9 months ago
Thanks
Reply
modi
9 months ago
hii chart look good what target to be assumed to acheive.
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modi modi
9 months ago
is fibonacci can be used for target.
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oilyprata
9 months ago
Can I ask a silly question, what is DCL mean? I can't seem to find it online.
Thanks again for sharing and for another piece of amazing analysis! =)
Reply
SharkbaitAl oilyprata
9 months ago
DCL is Daily Cycle Low...I would tell you more but I am still learning about them myself :) . I am currently reading Technical Analysis of Financial Markets by John Murphy and it has helped me to understand much more of Arpi's analysis
Reply
oilyprata SharkbaitAl
9 months ago
Thanks heaps Sharkbait! much appreciated! :)
+1 Reply
SharkbaitAl oilyprata
9 months ago
My pleasure. Like I said I am very much still learning but if you are looking for some resources let me know and I can steer you in the right direction. The book I mentioned has a free pdf online
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keefer0
9 months ago
Looking good, we had a daily close below 20EMA.
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MiDiGre PRO
9 months ago
Arpi...Is there any possibility to enter/add position to this short trade? Thanks in advance
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chartwatchers PRO MiDiGre
9 months ago
It's too late I think. We might have or might not have 3-4 more down days.
Middle of next week we will have the low. Go long next week. I will post when I close shorts and enter longs.
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nnavarrete chartwatchers
9 months ago
43 would be perfect... UWTI at round 28 - 29 and ERX at around 25-26. Nice re-entry points... :)
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oilyprata chartwatchers
9 months ago
Thanks Arpi :) Congrats also for Hungary's win over Austria in Euro 16 :)
+2 Reply
galaxytime77
9 months ago
http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_6449ebcc6f8b19fde30fcbe410a3bf5c.png
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AlphaDreams PRO
9 months ago
Trade is working fantastic! Excellent analysis.
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jackcrudeoil
9 months ago
Hi chart..what happens?? It's time to sell short positions?
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haddowdave
9 months ago
Looks like we will be getting down through 47 tomorrow. Do you expect a bounce at 46
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MMadryga
9 months ago
FYI from the EIA report today;
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 530.6 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week, and are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while
blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.2 million
barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels last week.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO MMadryga
9 months ago
Let's see the daily key reversal holds or not...
I'M ready to jump as I see the sign.
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dp chartwatchers
9 months ago
What do you mean by key reversal, please?

Also, jump short?

Thank you.
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Trendhopper chartwatchers
9 months ago
Reversal is there...are you short?..RSI 53 but 2hr chart shows we are still in the top structure so risk of upward move to form a right shoulder to 49.9...out of interest...why are you so sure oil will fall from this area to 40/44 zone? is this because of the 3 daily cycles....we must get close to high of cycle 1 (41.5) but not close below it....before we can go above our last high of 51.6...this is the only reason I can think...many thanks for your answer...and trade secrets..haha
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MMadryga
9 months ago
Should the US$ rebound next week which I am expecting, we should see wti fall further. Once we are done with the phony Brexit gold build things will normalize and we will get the DCL values Apri was looking for.
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MMadryga
9 months ago
Rotary Rig Count

6/17/2016


Location Week +/- "Week Ago" +/- "Year Ago"

Land 398 10 388 -427 825
Inland Waters 5 0 5 0 5
Offshore 21 0 21 -6 27
United States Total 424 10 414 -433 857

Gulf Of Mexico 21 1 20 -6 27

Canada 69 4 65 -67 136

North America 493 14 479 -500 993

Sorry for the formatting but here is last week's rig count.

FYI: Notice the rig count has increased in the US. Canada's count grew 2 weeks ago now that the fires have abated. In addition, we have some consolidation in the oil sector with announcements of new drilling. Vendors wells not in the RIG numbers that are being brought online, the DUC's (already drilled but not online wells) are coming online on an as needed basis to shore up the balance sheets of shale players. (There is a huge inventory of DUC wells in North America) We care about this because it serves the local North American market. Reducing the need for foreign imports. The US's largest importer is Canada, almost a million barrels a day, very little is imported from the rest of the world. In addition, we have announcements of large oil projects getting set to take place in Africa from the major European oil players so the long term trend for finding reserves will be satisfied as the more expensive projects drop offline.


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MMadryga
9 months ago
We have another H&S pattern in wti (hrly chart) which should see us down to the $47 mark.
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MMadryga
9 months ago
Toast and Tea and stupid environmental regulations... Brits have enough of the talking heads in Europe and Germany dictating the British immigration policy so what has this to do with wti. Well even though we have announcements today that the US will increase oil production in the Gulf by 500K barrels by next year. The US does have anemic growth thus the US$ becomes a safe haven and the dollar will increase in value this will put more pressure on wti. Look for Apri DCL values he was looking for last month.
Reply
MMadryga
9 months ago
RIG Count North America up by 4 this week
Reply
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