chartwatchers

OIL - 2 or 3 daily cycles?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3079 31 56
6 months ago
We have arrived to an important zone: 2015 November high.
As I predicted a few weeks before I think - if we are going to have 3 daily cycles - the 2nd daily cycle will top between 48 and 51$.
So we have to get ready that the 2nd daily cycle topping this week. I'm going to take profit on my oil             positions around 49-50$ - depending how strong is the next 2-3 days of rally - and try to reenter at 43-44$ again.

This is not carved into a stone ! We might be having only 2 daily cycles and that would mean that we will not have a top at 50$. If we have only 2 daily cycles the rally could continue to 55-60$. Noone can tell what will happen now. I just want to be ready to take out the most of my positions.
If there is only 2 daily cycles You don't know where this bull will end. Maybe 55$. Maybe at 60$. Maybe at 70$. There will be a correction sometime around the end of the summer I will try to reenter in a long position again there. We will decide what to do when we are there. But no oil             shorts.
There will be much better opportunities at the end of summer with great profits than shorting oil             from 60$ which could go to 70$... :)
6 months ago
Comment: Bullish news in oil... We are getting close to the top.
:D
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-loses-faith-in-stocks-and-warms-up-to-oil-2016-05-18
6 months ago
Comment: Rally on bad news.
Never short a junior bull !
:)
6 months ago
Comment: I tend to take profits on some of the oil june positions today or tomorrow as we arrived to the level I was waiting for. Not all positions just part of it. I would like to see if we have 2 or 3 daily cycles.
If there will be 3 daily cycles I will reenter at the DCL.
It's the 3rd day of the panic buying.
6 months ago
Comment: I will not touch the ERX positions.
6 months ago
Comment: We printed a key reversal candlestick today. It often shows a kind of a top in the trend.
I'm sure that tomorrow we will have some bounce up to 48.20-48.40$.
I will close all the USOIL contracts and wait if we can go down to the DCL in the following 5-7 days.
I want to be sure that we have 2 or 3 daily cycles before going long again.
If we have 3 daily cycles we will have a DCL by the end of next week.
If there is only 2 daily cycle then the rally will continue without the DCL.
The DCL could come back to 43-44$.
6 months ago
Comment: Oil was falling today because of the strengthening dollar.
The rig counts and other news were ineffective on it.
I think the dollar will continue its rally so I say 70% for the 3 daily cycle, 30% for the 2 daily cycle.
I would like to enter again at the lows of the 2nd daily cycle in 7-10 days
6 months ago
Comment: I think the pullback is done.
We are at the 50 EMA. This also the backtest of the breakout from the consolidation.
snapshot

Related Ideas

Great play for the investment banks. Someone shown on gold yesterday what they can do to the overbought commodities. I sincerely want to be in this!
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andrej123456
6 months ago
I am holding CLF and ERX shares already. If there are 3 daily cycles, would i sell my shares at oil 50USD and rebuy them at 2nd cycle bottom or rather hold them, whats you opinion ? Thanks
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chartwatchers TOP andrej123456
6 months ago
It will depend on the stocks exchange. If the S&P and Dow rallies to new highs I wouldn't sell them.
You simply won't find the exact top so you will buy back at a higher price or will stay out of the rest of the rally.
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chartwatchers TOP chartwatchers
6 months ago
ERX could rally along with the stock market even if oil is in a range.
And ERX is just coming out of a DCL right now. Oil is making higher high.
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MANOLIS PRO
6 months ago
Thanks, Interesting :)
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MMadryga
6 months ago
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 541.3 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week, but are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and
blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.0 million
barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week.
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MMadryga
6 months ago
North American rig count was down by another four rigs last week but the fire in Canada is going to skew the numbers over the next couple of weeks as some rigs were started back up then shut down again.
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chartwatchers TOP MMadryga
6 months ago
Thanks Madryga! :)
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USSRandolph
6 months ago
You are the Professor! Excellent, clear and easy to understand all aspects of chart reading and how outside forces effect price action. I also appreciate your suggestions about where and how to invest on the buy or sell side. I keep learning every day from you. Thank you.
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shinsky
6 months ago
Please keep up the great analysis. You are the only one that has been saying long oil for the longest time!
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chartwatchers TOP shinsky
6 months ago
Thank you ! ;)
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USSRandolph
6 months ago
We're in the critical zone. Just waiting for the next move, if any
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jackcrudeoil
6 months ago
Hi chart..so you suggest to wait 50$ and then sell all the positions or just a part..right?do you think that oil will achieve this price tomorrow?thanks
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chartwatchers TOP jackcrudeoil
6 months ago
I updated this post. We might had printed a daily cycle top today. I will exit tomorrow.
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guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
someone is writing that the volume is decreasing that means it could be that the oil will not have the force to arrive to 50$.
What do you think about it?
thanks
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chartwatchers TOP guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
It's around the same volume in the last 5-6 days.
I'm worried about the key reversal candlestick today and I see some divergencies in some indicators...
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toothless
6 months ago
I've been searching and I'm having trouble finding exactly what ERX includes, versus UWTI. In a previous reply, you recommended ERX over UWTI because UWTI would be chasing - could you clarify? Wouldn't that be the same for both?

Thanks so much!
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andrej123456
6 months ago
I also think that today was oils second cycle top and I think bottom will be before/ after 14th/15th june ... I am going to buy some more oil shares and open usd/rub short forex position when we will bottom .... are you keeping your erx ?
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chartwatchers TOP andrej123456
6 months ago
Yes I'm holding. I think the whole SM will rally in the following 2 months.
For oil shares it's enough if oil just stays in a range...
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guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
do you mean that we will start again to grow?
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chartwatchers TOP guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
It seems we are going up again
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guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
Hi me again that means now you will enter again in a long oil position?
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chartwatchers TOP guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
I'm full with ERX. I'm not opening oil longs. STill have some to wait for 50$.
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al.calgary
6 months ago
Hey, thanks for sharing your ideas :)
Do you think the oil will drop to 44 from here or will test 50$ first?
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chartwatchers TOP al.calgary
6 months ago
I think we are going up first than could come a daily cycle low
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guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
Hi Are you speaking about up to 50$ and Back daily cycle to 44 and up again for New top?
Thanks
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PhamPhan
6 months ago
Hi Chartwatchers. Wave Elliott ABCD; AB=CD ; BC=DE. D=42$; E=55$. Looking forward your comments.
snapshot
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guidorizzato6969 PhamPhan
6 months ago
Hi Phamphan Thanks for your study , If You Are right that means we Are now at the top and next movement Will bring us till 43 before to reach 55$.
Could You please confirm me that?
Thanks
Guido


Reply
guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
hi chartwatchers
sorry if I ask you that but may I ask you now, where we are?
2 or 3 daily cycles situation?
Are we in the position that you explained where we can go direct to 55 or 60 or 70$ and than at the end of the summer back again to 43 or do you think that around 50 $ we will go back to 43 usd?
thanks for your reply
Guido
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PhamPhan guidorizzato6969
6 months ago
Hi Guidorizzato6969. Thank you for your comments. Maybe $ 49.26 as stops. But prices can be up to $ 53. According to the calculation is $ 51. (Error 2$ )
Reply
franciskim
6 months ago
Hi chartwatchers, what do you think about this idea? Rejection at fib confluence:
Oil Rejected @ Fib Confluence
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