As I predicted a few weeks before I think - if we are going to have 3 daily cycles - the 2nd daily cycle will top between 48 and 51$.
So we have to get ready that the 2nd daily cycle topping this week. I'm going to take profit on my oil positions around 49-50$ - depending how strong is the next 2-3 days of rally - and try to reenter at 43-44$ again.
This is not carved into a stone ! We might be having only 2 daily cycles and that would mean that we will not have a top at 50$. If we have only 2 daily cycles the rally could continue to 55-60$. Noone can tell what will happen now. I just want to be ready to take out the most of my positions.
If there is only 2 daily cycles You don't know where this will end. Maybe 55$. Maybe at 60$. Maybe at 70$. There will be a correction sometime around the end of the summer I will try to reenter in a long position again there. We will decide what to do when we are there. But no oil shorts.
There will be much better opportunities at the end of summer with great profits than shorting oil from 60$ which could go to 70$... :)
Never short a junior bull !
If there will be 3 daily cycles I will reenter at the DCL.
It's the 3rd day of the panic buying.
I'm sure that tomorrow we will have some bounce up to 48.20-48.40$.
I will close all the USOIL contracts and wait if we can go down to the DCL in the following 5-7 days.
I want to be sure that we have 2 or 3 daily cycles before going long again.
If we have 3 daily cycles we will have a DCL by the end of next week.
If there is only 2 daily cycle then the rally will continue without the DCL.
The DCL could come back to 43-44$.
The rig counts and other news were ineffective on it.
I think the dollar will continue its rally so I say 70% for the 3 daily cycle, 30% for the 2 daily cycle.
I would like to enter again at the lows of the 2nd daily cycle in 7-10 days
We are at the 50 EMA. This also the backtest of the breakout from the consolidation.
Reserve) increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 541.3 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week, but are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and
blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.0 million
barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week.
sorry if I ask you that but may I ask you now, where we are?
2 or 3 daily cycles situation?
Are we in the position that you explained where we can go direct to 55 or 60 or 70$ and than at the end of the summer back again to 43 or do you think that around 50 $ we will go back to 43 usd?
thanks for your reply