chartwatchers

OIL - 2 or 3 daily cycles?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3162 31 58
We have arrived to an important zone: 2015 November high.
As I predicted a few weeks before I think - if we are going to have 3 daily cycles - the 2nd daily cycle will top between 48 and 51$.
So we have to get ready that the 2nd daily cycle topping this week. I'm going to take profit on my oil             positions around 49-50$ - depending how strong is the next 2-3 days of rally - and try to reenter at 43-44$ again.

This is not carved into a stone ! We might be having only 2 daily cycles and that would mean that we will not have a top at 50$. If we have only 2 daily cycles the rally could continue to 55-60$. Noone can tell what will happen now. I just want to be ready to take out the most of my positions.
If there is only 2 daily cycles You don't know where this bull will end. Maybe 55$. Maybe at 60$. Maybe at 70$. There will be a correction sometime around the end of the summer I will try to reenter in a long position again there. We will decide what to do when we are there. But no oil             shorts.
There will be much better opportunities at the end of summer with great profits than shorting oil             from 60$ which could go to 70$... :)
Comment: Bullish news in oil... We are getting close to the top.
:D
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-loses-faith-in-stocks-and-warms-up-to-oil-2016-05-18
Comment: Rally on bad news.
Never short a junior bull !
:)
Comment: I tend to take profits on some of the oil june positions today or tomorrow as we arrived to the level I was waiting for. Not all positions just part of it. I would like to see if we have 2 or 3 daily cycles.
If there will be 3 daily cycles I will reenter at the DCL.
It's the 3rd day of the panic buying.
Comment: I will not touch the ERX positions.
Comment: We printed a key reversal candlestick today. It often shows a kind of a top in the trend.
I'm sure that tomorrow we will have some bounce up to 48.20-48.40$.
I will close all the USOIL contracts and wait if we can go down to the DCL in the following 5-7 days.
I want to be sure that we have 2 or 3 daily cycles before going long again.
If we have 3 daily cycles we will have a DCL by the end of next week.
If there is only 2 daily cycle then the rally will continue without the DCL.
The DCL could come back to 43-44$.
Comment: Oil was falling today because of the strengthening dollar.
The rig counts and other news were ineffective on it.
I think the dollar will continue its rally so I say 70% for the 3 daily cycle, 30% for the 2 daily cycle.
I would like to enter again at the lows of the 2nd daily cycle in 7-10 days
Comment: I think the pullback is done.
We are at the 50 EMA. This also the backtest of the breakout from the consolidation.
snapshot
Hi chartwatchers, what do you think about this idea? Rejection at fib confluence:
Reply
hi chartwatchers
sorry if I ask you that but may I ask you now, where we are?
2 or 3 daily cycles situation?
Are we in the position that you explained where we can go direct to 55 or 60 or 70$ and than at the end of the summer back again to 43 or do you think that around 50 $ we will go back to 43 usd?
thanks for your reply
Guido
Reply
PhamPhan guidorizzato6969
Hi Guidorizzato6969. Thank you for your comments. Maybe $ 49.26 as stops. But prices can be up to $ 53. According to the calculation is $ 51. (Error 2$ )
Reply
Hi Chartwatchers. Wave Elliott ABCD; AB=CD ; BC=DE. D=42$; E=55$. Looking forward your comments.
snapshot
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Hi Phamphan Thanks for your study , If You Are right that means we Are now at the top and next movement Will bring us till 43 before to reach 55$.
Could You please confirm me that?
Thanks
Guido


Reply
Hi Are you speaking about up to 50$ and Back daily cycle to 44 and up again for New top?
Thanks
Reply
Hey, thanks for sharing your ideas :)
Do you think the oil will drop to 44 from here or will test 50$ first?
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I think we are going up first than could come a daily cycle low
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Hi me again that means now you will enter again in a long oil position?
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chartwatchers PRO guidorizzato6969
I'm full with ERX. I'm not opening oil longs. STill have some to wait for 50$.
Reply
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