chartwatchers
Long

OIL - No Market For SHORT MAN

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2357 37 36
7 months ago
Back to the old plan....
Most of the traders start to realize that this is not the market you can short.
We took out yesterday's high and now taking out the day before yesterday's high.
Though the day before yesterday we closed below the 10 EMA yesterday there was no follow through with a very high volume : we closed exactly on the 10 EMA. That's why I posted yesterday that I see oil             is starting to be strong. And today we are surging higher again. It was a fakeout move with a beartrap to play out shorts again. Without the big reversal of the DOLLAR (US index ) we would have never had this breakdown from the uptrend channel.

I missed the MACD divergence in the hourly chart : it was a mistake. And we could have got out of oil             at 46$. But I know myself : if I got out at the wrong time I would start to see bearish signs and not be able to get back on the market again.
And let's say it was a 2 $ short: the earliest you could have entered: 46. If you were very good you jumped out at the 10 EMA , and went for long yesterday at market close. I think I could count on one of my hands how many people did this...
2-3 maybe from the whole trading view community. Now most of the shorts are in zero profit or loss. And starting to hope. And that is what the big banks are using out when they get your money out of your pockets.
They turn your basic feelings against you. This is a war. When you fight against yourself.

So now as we are going to take out 46.60 high the short covering will push the price into the range highlighted in green.
There I will take profit on the positions. But the story is not over. I'm not goingto short there because the junior bull is too dangerous. If starts to run destroys the shorts. I will wait for the daily cycle low at 42-43 - we see in real time - and enter again for the last homerun to 60$ maybe.

The other big surprise what is coming now that the stock market is not going to collapse. Fasten your seat belts: it's going to go to new highs in the next months.

Guys I went through this in 2009 and lost a lot of money when oil             made a homerun. I was trying to short. The same thing is happening. These are rare moments. I was waiting for this possibility 7 years. In 2009 there was no trading view only a few forums. Use out this possibilty beacuse the big funds sooner or later will change their trading strategies.
This and next year we can make a hell of a lot of money out of these markets.

7 months ago
Comment: I want to prepare all of you that a wild ride is coming now:
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: I will be travelling today. Just in case if we have a crazy rally in oil I set my twitter account here. Follow it pls I might will post only there if I exit oil around 50$
7 months ago
Comment: If we close with this reversed hammer that would sign the end of the pullback still on the daily chart...
7 months ago
Comment: Inverted hammer today. Strong volume. Close above the 10 EMA.
Usually this is the sign of a trend reversal
WE are just waiting for the stock market to start its rally.
Most probably tomorrow after the NFP data...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JGu4gi6G/
7 months ago
Comment: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JGu4gi6G/

Rebounds

RaimondasKarth
7 months ago
It's possible to buy options on WTI crude Oil ? The only solution I found, it's USO ETF
+1 Reply
keefer0 RaimondasKarth
7 months ago
That's what I've been buying to go long. USO call options, they work great.
Reply
martinfaraujo RaimondasKarth
7 months ago
proof with UWTI
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Turestedt
7 months ago
Thank's a lot for your ideas. So let's buckle up for the ride...
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Benztownguy
7 months ago
Let`s hope for those inspiring words ;-)
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dimitriosb602
7 months ago
Thx for insight and strategies attacking this market. :)
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thulasi
7 months ago
as long as oil stays below 46.79 and goes to take out 43.23 the next down trend target would be 40$( so far the reversal looks corrective not impulsive in nature --on a 15 min chart it is still trading within a channel and when a pair trade within a channeling its always corrective in nature not impulsive and lacks massive moves)
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kizly
7 months ago
Thanks a lot, I was one who invested a lot in oil and oil stocks yesterday, to be honest only because of the great fire and feeling, conected with your predictions that bull run is not over yet. I will be very thankfull for exit advice if you see any. I think except scalping it is still very dangerous for shorts in oil.

Thanks once again.
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Fullmoon kizly
7 months ago
so do I
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Benztownguy
7 months ago
Took Profit at 45.76 today and reentered the position also at 45.76 thinking the rally to 48+ was on. Now i`m not enjoying the current 44+ ...but i`m holding with an SL@43
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kizly Benztownguy
7 months ago
I'm afraid we will see 43,7..8
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xiiimik
7 months ago
I wonder how was the news back in 2009 on popular magazines(bloomberg) or TV shows. The same sentiment on TV news/magazines? That oil in oversupply, that demand is not enough.
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JZA80
7 months ago
Going straight to 30, you heard it here first!
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DetusX
7 months ago
2 wave just completed at the brakeout 3 wave inc ^^
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nexuz
7 months ago
any ideas why that drop occurs atm? testback of daily ema10?
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chartwatchers PRO nexuz
7 months ago
I think it's because the stocks were not able to reverse yet.
If we end the day with this inverted hammer it's good. It's the sign of the end of the downtrend.
We are waiting for the NFP in stocks tomorrow.
I think whatever number comes out stocks will turn up. THat will help oil also.
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ya I got out of my short to day saw a change in the market going long now thank you!
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jinyuji210
7 months ago
does it mean the trend will be going down?
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Renegade7
7 months ago
The Aberta tar sands are ablaise, production drops 800,000 is this a big deal or just a fart in a whirlwind.
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Trendhopper PRO
7 months ago
thank you for your posts, they are fantastic
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zhipengcfel
7 months ago
Bear actually stepped into oil market.
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chartwatchers PRO zhipengcfel
7 months ago
We couldn't have closed below even the 10 EMA for weeks now.
Where do you see bears?
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
Since 09t hFebruary till now we had 2 weeks when you could have made some money on the bear sid:
The last DCL :22.03.- 04.04. It was 6 $ from 42 to 36$.
ANd who caught it was just lucky.

I'm still 15$ plus on my position. ANd not worried too much.
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zhipengcfel chartwatchers
7 months ago
One expanded flat correction and one zigzag correction have finished. The daily macd has made a bearish cross. The daily price has broken 12 SMA.
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zhipengcfel zhipengcfel
7 months ago
Trading 3#: Trading setup for US oil
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zhipengcfel zhipengcfel
7 months ago
I am waiting for the break of the second correction rising channel to add more short.
Oil underwent a complex correction
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andrej123456
7 months ago
What crude oil instruments are you trading ?
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
7 months ago
USOIL, ERX, XLE
+1 Reply
andrej123456 chartwatchers
7 months ago
By USOIL you meant USO ETF ? Thank you.
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JZA80
7 months ago
So this post says oil to $50, another "expert" says oil to $30. What's the deal in these forums.
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chartwatchers PRO JZA80
7 months ago
I never said I'm an expert.
My trades are win, loose and draw. 70%-20%-10%
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JZA80 chartwatchers
7 months ago
So let me bet the farm on oil going to $50 and see what happens.
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chartwatchers PRO JZA80
7 months ago
OIL - THE NEXT BIG THING


I'm long since 30$ so playing with the house's money.
And I posted when I last time added to my positions. When I post long I'm not holding a shotgun to the followers
head to go long I just think that the rally is not over.
ANd sorry but I'm not going to close the longs while we can't even close below the 10 EMA on the daily.
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toothless
7 months ago
Thank you kindly for all the info. Still new to this game, so trying my best to digest everything. But your analysis is extremely helpful.
Mahalos from Hawaii.
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andrej123456
7 months ago
Why the starting bullish trend (on USOIL) in March 2015 reverted to bearish in May and June 2015 ? I am still quite doubtful that the real reason was international oversupply. What do you think ? Thank you !
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IvanLabrie PRO
7 months ago
Timeless.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
7 months ago
Thanks.
Reply
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