US OIL Long Term View

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
This is just a play with the ideas for my personal use and for my future reference. There is no financial or investment advice in that post.

Oil has been in uptrend until 2008.

2008 was the turning point, together with the expansion of the shale industry that had forced the oil into the downtrend.
\u2028Given current fundamental factors such as renewable energy, reduced carbon emissions, electric cars and further development of shale technology. I believe the downtrend will continue.

Interesting point is that 42.5 which is the last 0.236 Fib retracement from absolute maximum to absolute minimum. Around $40 is where the influential countries lose the balance of their budget (Russia, Saudi Arabia?)

We can expect that 42.5 will remain strong support - particularly it will be a place where we can expect fundamental action from OPEC countries

We can observe that since Jul 2008 - the major price drop. The next drop came 6 years later in 2014.Now 2018…only 4 years later.

Given all that i’d assume that Oil will proceed to rebound till 62 which is the 0.382 fib retracement from absolute maximum.

Then we shall expect a new fall and possible fixation under 42 in about 2 to 4 years time frame.

If that is the case - we can expect some serious shift of powers across the world, as the big oil players such Saudi Arabia and Russia will start losing their influence. We live in a very interesting times. Let’s see what will the future bring us.