Oil looking weak after fake reversal. Target 38.50

Oil's reversal yesterday didn't feel convincing. Normally we see the $*&t hit the fan and an explosion higher. The data and overnight price action has been weak and this morning's move lower at the open isn't constructive for the bull case. Oil has defined convention since last November and it wouldn't surprise me to see it continue to do so, just as "everybody" is calling a bottom. It just seems too perfect that deflationary concerned have evaporated just in time for the Fed to hike next month w/ the final CPI print being the first to have incorporated the base effect of oil's halving. I think we re-test 40 and move below. Important levels are noted in the chart.