Using Volume Profile for Upcoming European Volatility

AMEX:VGK   Vanguard FTSEEuropean ETF
VGK - Europe ETF (most traded in US markets)

Chart - Volume Profile

Left Volume Profile shows Volume-By-Price since 2011 bottom
Right Volume Profile shows Volume-By-Price since 2009 bottom.

Recent volume (left) profile shows us where significant value support (48 to 50) and resistance (58 to 60) stands.
Volume (right) profile shows where significant value support now turned resistance is at; 52.30 and 56.75 areas.

Political Concerns in 2015

Jan 25 Greece Snap Election has everyone concerned. For 14 months Syriza has been ahead of the ruling New Democracy party of the outgoing prime minister, Antonis Samaras (pro-Euro), in the polls. Syriza party leaders have been pushing forward on an agenda to leave the Euro, dubbed the Grexit. A Grexit has many investors weary, bringing up painful memories of the 2011-12 ECB PIIGS bailouts and austerities measures that caused dangerous rioting plus run on banks. Another concern in the EuroZone is Spain , which also has elections later in 2015. Podemos Party, much like Greece's Syriza, is also anti Euro and has had large leads in the polls. The thinking is if Greece goes so does Spain.

Now what's even more interesting is the big push for a 1 Trillion Euro QE coming from Mario Drahgi and the ECB. There is much expectation that the ECB will act on or near it's Jan. 22nd meeting, and if not in Jan. than certainly on March 5th (it's next meeting). However, I believe the date could come even further out (perhaps April 15th) , while we wait to see what the new political party in Greece demands. Germany and other nations will not feel safe buying un-secure Greece debt with a radical party that threatens in exit every time they don't get what they want.

ECB Calendar


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