capsule91

VGuard reacumulation

Long
capsule91 Updated   
NSE:VGUARD   V-GUARD INDUSTRIES
technically, it is coming out of a nice base, and presently testing the 52week moving average, which was previously a strong resistance, the 220 region which was also a resistance was taken out on record volumes and presently, another small reaccumulation is taking place at the 52 WMA…
over all a very nice change in character with consistent higher lows, and of the 3 downward retracemnts this year, the ongoing one is neither generating much volumes , not much fall in price action.
on the monthly chart, September generated the lowest volume candle in 2 years, and it was a negative close with a larger tail wick than head wick…


the target price as mentioned with generate a pe ratio of 75x around, which has been a historic resistance for this valuation metric, following which sharp cprrection is expected from higher 300 odd levels

Although, technical buildup is superb, fundamentally, the only traction is is receiving is from the electrical consumer durable segment, that also when the demand growth picture is quite questionable and by no means this is a cheap stock hovering around its all time high asking price..
The management reiterates 15% topline growth in FY20E.
what i do not receive comfort in valuations, but technically, it has got a very strong support at 210 levels, at cmp that is a 10 percent downside, to 60percent around upside expectation, excellent risk reward ratio imho.

disclaimer... not an investing/trading recommendation
Comment:
q1 concall comments...The Electricals segment (40% of Vugard’s total topline) was
impacted by de-stocking of wires by the traders on account of the
volatility in copper prices

copper weekly chart suggests further softening of prices..

this would have positive impetus to both the top line and the margins in subsequent quaters, plus the lower base last year due to kerala flood would optically inflate the q2 n q3 numbers..

the management is guiding for a ebidta margin of 10% to be maintained, further aided by growth in the nonsouth market and better margins with this growth, besides working capital efficiency and better product mix..

all in all, good possibility of better numbers in coming quarters..
Comment:
good reversal features in daily chart
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