VIX: Minor 3

To the extent we remain elevated over our most recent low, I would expect here, and through September, a rise into the 20s. in Minor Impulsive fashion. Targeting 22-24. Seems low, but based on the ES count, bulls should be "realizing" they have underestimated the Intermediate (4) and thus will need to allow for testing of support, ideally, above 4237...with what will appear to be a Minor C. Perfect, since Bears would agree, Minor Impulse, downward.

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Treating this like a minuette (iv), looking for another push, up to maybe 17, then a Minute ((ii)) that could challenge the recent VIX lows, BUT I don't expect more than .618 on ES, to no more than 4484.25, and that is how I am trading it.

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Looks like we get continuation, down, but for how long? It is unclear because of the contract change how to look at this. I have a count that I mentioned yesterday that said the last retrace was a Minuette (iv), BUT the contract change makes it look like an entire Minute ((ii)), which would mean we are now completing our Subminuette i-ii. to start our Minute ((iii)) of Minor 3. I remain short and will await at least OML to close or cover any puts.

I think we close the week lower, with VIX over 16, and that Monday morning will open low then rally at least a day in ES.

Best, Cuz

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Whether a 3 or a C, we appear setup in ES to go down and “test” support in mid 4200s. Looking good for this particular leg.

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Have a tiny impulse, upward, this morning, which is expected. ES is set up to dump for at least, OML, and NQ is hitting its ideal fibs, as I write. Should see continuation, this week.

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Pushing it. Should be moving up, anytime, now.

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The price action we are looking for. ESS just tagged my absolute upper expectation, this morning, so looking for a little 1-2 action for today

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Others may know, better than I, but obviously, VIX is a seprate index, with different rules and equations, and moves, differently than ES, and while I have ASSUMED Elliott wave principles can translate directly, regardless of the graph, based on the price action in ES V. Vix...I wonder whether, as in the case of vix's complex equation taking into account time til expiration, could be skewed in a way that the same rules regarding breaches of lows and highs still apply. Just a musing...

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This move is productive to the downside, in ES, in line with this VIX forcast. I have closed all DEC shorts and taking a small spec long to cover itm March PUT.
Still short MNQ/MES MarJune.

I am looking for a larger Subminuette Wave (iv), here to about 4469-70

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I could be wrong. But I would be a seller, here, if holding long, to lock some profit, MOSTLY due to the messy way ES started down, but there are at least two counts that reconcile ES higher, and only one messy one that reconciles, downwardly, SO I must ask myself...is this the big one?

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IMO, Minute ((iii)) is drawing to a close, and I have closed all ES & NQ shorts. I look for Minute ((iv) - ((v)) then Minor 4 - 5 retrace, here. I intend to trade the fringes, looking for reentry around 4400 Dec 4447.50 Mar. Best, Cuz

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One more note on targets:

4400 is a little high, and might be a better upper stop for put.

Upper 4390s would be target, looking at the perceived 4 of 1 lesser degree. Mainly, looking to get that March contract as high as possible, w a little gamma at the upper fringe. 4447.50 4449?? Take a look at ES2, a lot of times, you get the real story, there. 4448.75 is that prior wave 4 high on March (ES2) contract. My target is 4447.50 on March K to open short.

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Counting Vix has completed an Ending Diagonal for Minuette (v), and now we should get a Minute ((ii)). Messy in ES, but I think that is the optimal count. Also, watching dollar bang on the ceiling for days. Needs a correction.