Vix; The Crash is coming, but is it the end?
Disclaimer
I am not an economist. I am a communist. No, literally, I like communism. It is a favourable form of government to my personal beliefs in true equality and the embrace of humanity over human. I also don't know that much about economic theory. I don't know that much about anything at all actually. This isn't a smart man in a suit talking to you from a perch of wisdom offering guidance and advice, this is a snake oil salesman offering you fancy stories about their travels on the old dusty trail from humble town to town.
My Theorem on the upcoming crash
I think we have all laughed our butts off enough with the 'sky is falling' news over the past ~6 months over the financial market. And why shouldn't it? Its an outdated, corrupt, poisonous pestule of a thing that is bound to collapse at any moment, and its sole purpose is to squeeze as much dollars out of each other as possible. That is what we do by the way. We are literally just taking money from each other. Nothing gets made here, nothing matters here. Businesses fail, not just because of their stock market price, but because of their business model. The way they are willing to squeeze their business for every penny to remove the benefits that it once brought, just to look better on the stock market? Amazon is going to crash (certainly not anytime soon, but eventually people are just going to be really sick and tired of their corruption and anti-ethical behaviour, plus competition will come along, probably with a more focused start on robotics, thus removing the imagery of killing off jobs from the narrative of killing Amazon), because in its quest for market dominance it ruined its great aspects. You can no longer trust vendors on Amazon because of the removal of quality check standards in a bid to offer more for less. Their prices are higher, quality decreased, they can't get a good headline because they can't seem to do good things. Everything fails. But then something new comes along.
Thats it. That is the truth.
Warren Buffett isn't richer than you because he is smarter than you. He is richer than you because he is older than you and doesn't move his money. Markets crash, so instead of selling for less, he just holds on to it and buys more. This logic has literally made him the force he is. Certainly there are little magic moves here and there, with a spot of completely vile and unethical corruption and backroom deals, but it was this simple logic that makes him a monster.
Inflation happens, and globalism happens. In order to keep up the myth of capitalism, inflation has to increase with the global market, thus "wealth" in the financial sense must grow with it. If a drug that helps treat cancer gets 20 billion dollars, its fair share of the market value, why should a drug that cures cancer get only 20 billion dollars? Rewards must increase, and they seem to be increasing at a logarithmic scale. I don't foresee an end to this behaviour, I can only see it increasing in the future in the quest to out-capitalism the destructive effects of capitalism. Capitalism requires a winner and a loser, and sometimes the winner is just the person who stuck around with the sinking ship, working on making it float a little bit longer, until the real help comes.
The second piece of advise from Cuban, a significantly less impressive investor, but he has more NBA rings, and that is really the only sign of prestige I can possibly respect; If you have a belief in that stock, if you really think that it can do it, then why would you sell?
I do my research. I look up the CEO, I look up the rest of the board and team. I look at their science, their technology. I compare it to the fields science and technology. I look at their history, their ability to overcome hurdles. Their ability to move into the future and add to the technology/science/medicine of the future. Yeah, I also play the money game, I want to make a buck. I want to make a ton of money and get rich and all that jazz, so sometimes I invest in dumpy companies that I think will make a few more rounds with the stock market until it's eternal slumber.
The only thing that big investment groups, hedgefunds, etc. have that you don't, is information. There is still information that they can get that we can't, and they have more weight than any of us, but that doesn't mean they are smarter. We are in the information age. We can google, bing, yahoo, askjeeves, aol whatever the heck we want. It takes time, and it is hard and it sucks, and investing isn't a crock pot, you can't just set it and forget it, but it gets easier. The first time you clean your house is the hardest, every time after is easier because there is less work to do.
After the crash, the market is going to come back. It really, really, really will.
My Reasoning
Why VIX?
Why did I post this here? Why not on any other stock? Because this one is all about volatility. If we accept volatility, and we start gambling on volatility, then we compound volatility. If all of a sudden, everyone stops doing risky bets, does research and figures out the companies with the best tech, accepts research and development, knows which smaller companies to acquire, etc., and starts being a little bit more patient like Warren Buffett, then volatility will decrease and the market would actually be healthy.
Be the change you want in the world, be a healthier and safer investor.
Disclaimer - TL;DR
This post is brought to you by the letter A because my A key is broken, and I don't have the money for a new one because my investments have not rocketed me to fortune and fame. So take everything I say with a grain of salt. Do research, look at what I have to say as just a filter on a photo, one that looks at the world in a different way, but is still just a distortion and not the actual world itself.
The TL;DR is this: Believe in yourself and always learn. You really can do the research! I provide links for every source of data in my posts, most of them from simple google searches. You can always be right! You can make the right call and choose the right company and the right investment if you did that research and you really continue to learn and do that research even after the investment. A crash may or may not happen, and a comeback may or may not happen either. No one is going to be able to save you or decide for you what to do, you chose to walk down this path of self investing. Trust in yourself, learn, work hard, do the research, and either way the gamble works, be okay with it because you are okay with yourself.
Safe travels out there friend.
I am not an economist. I am a communist. No, literally, I like communism. It is a favourable form of government to my personal beliefs in true equality and the embrace of humanity over human. I also don't know that much about economic theory. I don't know that much about anything at all actually. This isn't a smart man in a suit talking to you from a perch of wisdom offering guidance and advice, this is a snake oil salesman offering you fancy stories about their travels on the old dusty trail from humble town to town.
My Theorem on the upcoming crash
I think we have all laughed our butts off enough with the 'sky is falling' news over the past ~6 months over the financial market. And why shouldn't it? Its an outdated, corrupt, poisonous pestule of a thing that is bound to collapse at any moment, and its sole purpose is to squeeze as much dollars out of each other as possible. That is what we do by the way. We are literally just taking money from each other. Nothing gets made here, nothing matters here. Businesses fail, not just because of their stock market price, but because of their business model. The way they are willing to squeeze their business for every penny to remove the benefits that it once brought, just to look better on the stock market? Amazon is going to crash (certainly not anytime soon, but eventually people are just going to be really sick and tired of their corruption and anti-ethical behaviour, plus competition will come along, probably with a more focused start on robotics, thus removing the imagery of killing off jobs from the narrative of killing Amazon), because in its quest for market dominance it ruined its great aspects. You can no longer trust vendors on Amazon because of the removal of quality check standards in a bid to offer more for less. Their prices are higher, quality decreased, they can't get a good headline because they can't seem to do good things. Everything fails. But then something new comes along.
Thats it. That is the truth.
Warren Buffett isn't richer than you because he is smarter than you. He is richer than you because he is older than you and doesn't move his money. Markets crash, so instead of selling for less, he just holds on to it and buys more. This logic has literally made him the force he is. Certainly there are little magic moves here and there, with a spot of completely vile and unethical corruption and backroom deals, but it was this simple logic that makes him a monster.
Inflation happens, and globalism happens. In order to keep up the myth of capitalism, inflation has to increase with the global market, thus "wealth" in the financial sense must grow with it. If a drug that helps treat cancer gets 20 billion dollars, its fair share of the market value, why should a drug that cures cancer get only 20 billion dollars? Rewards must increase, and they seem to be increasing at a logarithmic scale. I don't foresee an end to this behaviour, I can only see it increasing in the future in the quest to out-capitalism the destructive effects of capitalism. Capitalism requires a winner and a loser, and sometimes the winner is just the person who stuck around with the sinking ship, working on making it float a little bit longer, until the real help comes.
The second piece of advise from Cuban, a significantly less impressive investor, but he has more NBA rings, and that is really the only sign of prestige I can possibly respect; If you have a belief in that stock, if you really think that it can do it, then why would you sell?
I do my research. I look up the CEO, I look up the rest of the board and team. I look at their science, their technology. I compare it to the fields science and technology. I look at their history, their ability to overcome hurdles. Their ability to move into the future and add to the technology/science/medicine of the future. Yeah, I also play the money game, I want to make a buck. I want to make a ton of money and get rich and all that jazz, so sometimes I invest in dumpy companies that I think will make a few more rounds with the stock market until it's eternal slumber.
The only thing that big investment groups, hedgefunds, etc. have that you don't, is information. There is still information that they can get that we can't, and they have more weight than any of us, but that doesn't mean they are smarter. We are in the information age. We can google, bing, yahoo, askjeeves, aol whatever the heck we want. It takes time, and it is hard and it sucks, and investing isn't a crock pot, you can't just set it and forget it, but it gets easier. The first time you clean your house is the hardest, every time after is easier because there is less work to do.
After the crash, the market is going to come back. It really, really, really will.
My Reasoning
- 4.5 Trillion dollars printed for the covid crisis, i didn't get that money. did you? I got a few grand, but total it up, nobody got that money. That money went to the banks, it went into overleveraging, the banks goofed, they thought they could invest in hedgefunds and make bank, hedgefunds lied and boom, they lost some of their money. See Archegos. This 4.5 trillion is coming back into the market in the strangest way, it is going to correct the shorted positions of those who believed in the market crash and bet waaaaaaaaaay too much against it. It is almost like when the Fed says it isn't going to raise rates, it isn't going to let recession or depression happen, it literally won't. The Fed would rather have the united state wage an international war and kill half of the global population then ever go back on its word.
- The Fed will print more money. Why? Because they have no issue with it. Powell has even said that he does not believe that the liquidity of the financial market is a true reflection of the health or liquidity of the financial institutions or the government. Did he use those words? No, but he removed public updates of the liquidity of the financial markets and said something to the exact same effect.
- Too big to fail. Yes, the banks were not too big to fail, they should've failed, and in not letting them fail, they delayed the inevitable and raised the stakes to now letting the government fail. USA can't fail now, or China wins the financial world. This isn't just finances anymore, and it never was, this is power over the fate of the world. Letting the entire American financial institution fail would shatter one of the few remaining holds that America has over the rest of the world. So banks will now fail, and the string of policies that only delays the inevitable is now used to prop up the American government.
- Companies that actually deserve money, biotechs making cancer drugs, tech companies making a more green world, those bringing us into the future, will get their money. If you did your due diligence, you kept up with it, you managed your risks, leveraged appropriately and only invested what you could comfortably lose and not be bothered, then why not keep it there.
- Investing has and will change. The rise of robinhood is really the rise of retail. Retail investors are bigger than they believe, and are real money. I would bet, and have bet, that retail investors cannot, and are not anywhere near the leverage levels of any other investment group in the financial markets. My guess is that if you strip away all the fake money, the only thing you'll find is retail. Retail getting more active in investing is going to mean more of that money growing, as their wages increase, money invested increase, bring more people and more money into investing, and thus the growing list of bag holders goes logarithmic, but the mentality has changed. These people are willing to wait. It turns out they are actually just as smart as Warren Buffett. They believed in a company, their technology, and just didn't sell it. We will all lose something eventually, but if you invest correctly, the loss is decreased in its impact to you, and if you did your research, your chances, and thus losses, decrease.
Why VIX?
Why did I post this here? Why not on any other stock? Because this one is all about volatility. If we accept volatility, and we start gambling on volatility, then we compound volatility. If all of a sudden, everyone stops doing risky bets, does research and figures out the companies with the best tech, accepts research and development, knows which smaller companies to acquire, etc., and starts being a little bit more patient like Warren Buffett, then volatility will decrease and the market would actually be healthy.
Be the change you want in the world, be a healthier and safer investor.
Disclaimer - TL;DR
This post is brought to you by the letter A because my A key is broken, and I don't have the money for a new one because my investments have not rocketed me to fortune and fame. So take everything I say with a grain of salt. Do research, look at what I have to say as just a filter on a photo, one that looks at the world in a different way, but is still just a distortion and not the actual world itself.
The TL;DR is this: Believe in yourself and always learn. You really can do the research! I provide links for every source of data in my posts, most of them from simple google searches. You can always be right! You can make the right call and choose the right company and the right investment if you did that research and you really continue to learn and do that research even after the investment. A crash may or may not happen, and a comeback may or may not happen either. No one is going to be able to save you or decide for you what to do, you chose to walk down this path of self investing. Trust in yourself, learn, work hard, do the research, and either way the gamble works, be okay with it because you are okay with yourself.
Safe travels out there friend.