Kumowizard
Long

VIX - Is the sell volatility game fading?

INDEX:VIX   CBOE Volatility Index
93 2 0
It is not an Ichimoku chart, and I don't want to add too much comment.

With QE             out soon, it looks like the good days for free lunch volatility sellers will be soon over. We will see sharper moves in VIX             , so in equity prices too ( SP500             respectively). My bet is we will likely not see the VIX             in the 11-12 super low range, but rather ard the 13,90-14,00 equilibrium. So my game is any time it is down to 11,00 - 11,50, just buy!

The upside is a good question. 18-21 is a Take Profit range, BUT NOT A SELL FOR SHORT any more! Why not short? If once a major problem (trend break) happens on SP500             , then the 21 won't hold either.
jonatsgonats
2 years ago
VIX likely to go to 7/8 which is the right median for a calm market. Then VIX to go to 0 as all is okay in this world.
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Kumowizard PRO jonatsgonats
2 years ago
Yes, well one of my best friends has had a special theory: rates at 0 forever, volatility down to zero, and equity prices will reach to infinite :-D. Everything is possible. But deep in our mind we all know, what goes up, must come down, and it's true the other way around as well. It is very simple, every trend has to end once, and just because we haven't really see a bear mkt for the last 5 years, that can not mean we will not see a bear mkt in the next 5 years. Of course we never know (in fact no one knows) if a trend reverses today, in two weeks, or in 1 year time. That's why I prefer to follow technicals and probabilities rather than being predictive, like saying for example the VIX will go this or that way. I don't know when and how it will move, what I see it has some better chance now to go up to a higher region. Still, I may be wrong of course, and it will go to 0 ... never say never :-D
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