No fear at all. Not yet. Key reversal zone lower.
Not much to comment here. Market is Uber bullish, there's no fear at all... at least in US equities.
Very strange, that 3-4 weeks before Brexit vote, FX priced in quite remarkable risk premium through short term options implied volatility, while the stock markets (in general) completely ignore any risks, at least for now.
Which market is pricing correctly? FX or Equities? Or maybe FX is overpricing risks, while Equity markets clearly undervalue it? I don't have the clear answer, but I can answer your question when to buy VXX (SP500 short term volatility).
1. You can try small bottom fishing with tiny longs, IF you see some form of Heikin-Ashi reversal on daily
2. You have to buy larger size, IF price breaks through the key bearish support zone, which is now the 14,90-15,40 range.
Regarding SP500 and VXX, I actually see more bearish risk factors:
- Brexit
- China
- OPEC meeting with disappointment and WTI selloff
- FED hawkish tone -> rates ticking higher -> USD stronger -> more liquidity tightening
- Decreasing trend in Corporate earnings + profit warnings
- US election
In my childhood I was told "It is better to fear (too early), than to get (suddenly) scared!"
Keep your eyes open!
Very strange, that 3-4 weeks before Brexit vote, FX priced in quite remarkable risk premium through short term options implied volatility, while the stock markets (in general) completely ignore any risks, at least for now.
Which market is pricing correctly? FX or Equities? Or maybe FX is overpricing risks, while Equity markets clearly undervalue it? I don't have the clear answer, but I can answer your question when to buy VXX (SP500 short term volatility).
1. You can try small bottom fishing with tiny longs, IF you see some form of Heikin-Ashi reversal on daily
2. You have to buy larger size, IF price breaks through the key bearish support zone, which is now the 14,90-15,40 range.
Regarding SP500 and VXX, I actually see more bearish risk factors:
- Brexit
- China
- OPEC meeting with disappointment and WTI selloff
- FED hawkish tone -> rates ticking higher -> USD stronger -> more liquidity tightening
- Decreasing trend in Corporate earnings + profit warnings
- US election
In my childhood I was told "It is better to fear (too early), than to get (suddenly) scared!"
Keep your eyes open!